Sunday 7 October 2007

When will the next Election be then?

Well, with Brown pulling out of having an election on 2007 we can now think about when the next likely date will be.

For 2008 it seems the odds are against it given that Brown has just turned down the opportunity of having one now. However 2008 is the also likely to be the last year of any real growth in the economy and the time for a referendum (or not) on the EU treaty; so there may yet be an outside chance.

In 2009 we will be in a very different economic position. Companies will be finding it hard to make money, the government will be trying to cut spending to match the tax receipts and this will be upsetting the unions. In addition consumer spending will be down as people finally try to repay all the debt they have taken out. One outrider is that a significant percentage of people in negative equity that will drag down the housing sector too.

So that leaves 2010, when an election will have to be called come what may. If we are lucky the economy may be showing signs of picking up; equally if we have followed a lax monetary policy the recession may have been put off until then. It will be difficult for Alistair Darling to actually put off the recession long enough for an election. If they do manage it then it is goodnight for whoever wins the election as the economy will be in shreds.

So overall my money is on 2010 and 3 more years of Gordon Brown as PM.

Tomorrow I will look over the Comprehensive Spending Review and what hat means for our taxpaying finances over the next 3 years.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dearieshe reports that the talk in the changing room at the pool today was all of what an ass Gordymandias had been. She helped things along by saying that if we weren't to have an election, the way was clear for a Euro-referendum. Roars of approval.

Mark Wadsworth said...

CU, do you seriously think that Nulab can keep the whole pyramid scheme going for two-and-a-half more years?

They have got to call an election by the end of 2008 at the latest, the wheels are dropping off already, IMHO.

hatfield girl said...

You must be right that the Leader will call no election before 2010; the fear remains that no election will be called in 2010 either - the national emergency will require a national government. It's been attempted by invitation all summer, next time it's going to be compulsory.

Sackerson said...

The skies are darkening: "Cluck, cluck, cluck."

Newmania said...

Agreed and and you might have put the drop in receipts to the exchequer into the mix more overtly

Anonymous said...

Given that Gordon hasn't called an election now because he would lose, it is difficult to see how the polls could ever get better. So one must presume that with this reasoning he will cling to power for as long as possible, as you have suggested - unless he is deposed by his own people of course, which is entirely possible.

Lets face it, if the Tories can turn an 11 point lead into a 6 point deficit with just one weeks conference coverage, you can imagine what would happen after a month of genuine electioneering. Regardless, NuLabour are going to be torn to shreds.

Wolfie said...

Whatever happens the next election winner will be gifted a poisoned chalice. I think it an optimistic assessment that puts the crash on hold for two years though.

Its such a shame that all that good growth was so badly squandered.

Anonymous said...

I see that something is being done about IHT for married couples. Be sure to tell us what happens if one of them remarries after the first death.

Man in a Shed said...

Brown has said there will be no election in 2009 - but who trusts him ?

My guess is the statement is designed to help the Lib Dems to ditch Ming.

Newmania said...

Be sure to tell us what happens if one of them remarries after the first death.


You can`t pool the allowance Dearieme . in fact it turns out this is not a tax cut at all its just a bit simpler

CityUnslicker said...

Dearime - I fear we will have no referendum.

MW - You can always brorrow more and rob peter to pay paul....

HG - Perhaps the Royals will fially do something useful at this point...

S - Quite.

N - I am flattered to have people from the telly commenting on here know.

CityUnslicker said...

Anon - Well it is very unlikley to get any better for Labour now. They will look back to this moment as an opportunity missed.

CityUnslicker said...

D/N - More on this in a bit...

MoS - Ming is a gonner. I think Brown just bottled it. How can Ming make it to 2010...it is just a matter of time. A post for the near future perhaps...

Anonymous said...

I was consistent it wouldn't be this year, but I think it now depends on the economy and wether he feels able to weather the storm.

Could be anytime between now and 2010.

Anonymous said...

I am back on the electoral register Mr U. I shall vote them out!

Sackerson said...

Wolfie:

I agree. If I were the Opposition, I would either:

a) make clear and constant noises about economic mismanagement, starting now, so when the mess has to be cleared up people will know who's really to blame for the pain; or

b) try to lose the next election.

Anonymous said...

"They will look back to this moment as an opportunity missed."

I don't think there ever was an opportunity for Labour (well, excpet to get out fro under the coming economic messbefore their reputation is torn to shreds again). If the Tories cold pull off a 17 point swing in the opinion polls with just one policy and a decent bit of telly-time then you can imagine what would have happened if we had gone into a full election campaign. Cameron, Osborne, Hague, Davis et al are making NuLabour look like a complete embarassing shambles. In an election the Beeb wouldn't be able to cover for Labour any more.

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