Wednesday 15 October 2008

Bear Market Rally Over?

Unemployment woes seem to have stopped the shares rally dead today. Sticking by my predictions for the week from Sunday (well, some of them are wrong already). Looking forward to Friday to see what the world looks like with its new socialist sheen.

A long way down from here, methinks...#

UPDATE: FTSE heading for 7% down today - total gain since 'bail out' = 1.1%. Close to call to have above the level of last Friday's crash by the time we reach this coming Friday...

15 comments:

Croydonian said...

Beginning to look like a dead cat bounce, isn't it?

Anonymous said...

I sold a couple of things yesterday which had gone up by 12% each over the past week so that I'd bank a bit of profit... unfortunately my plan to re-buy at a lower price hasn't yet worked out because they haven't gone down... hopefully that will happen soon...
I know most people are not wanting a big crash but, really, I was hoping for some bargains to stick into my pension for a couple of decades... the falls last week didn't bring much into bargain territory imho...

Old BE said...

Oh Brown will look like a real tw*t if HIS amazing worldwide plan fails to work. It is almost worth the crash just to see that.

On the news last night shoppers were interviewed about their changing habits. It was amazing to see so many complacent people who aren't Labour MPs...

Mark Wadsworth said...

Ye olde FTSE100 has performed the most impressive double-top formation over the last ten or twenty years PLUS we have a Labour gummint. Anybody who think that prices won't continue to go down wants his or her head examining.

Steven_L said...

I'm saving for some bargains. I'm on the nicotine patches, £2.88 bulgarian wine, little stubby lagers and half-price microwave meals at the moment.

Once I've built up a little capital I'll have to consider whether to spend it on bargains in the FTSE or the travel agents.

Knowing my luck of course the car will go wrong.

Anonymous said...

One thing intrigues me in this whole farrago: there has been no mention anywhere of all the garbage debt held by Chinese banks. Anyone who has spent time working in China (as I have) has seen at first hand how much of their economy is still moribund state-run or PLA-owned "enterprises" which survive only on generous hand outs from the Bank of China, inter alia. At some point this has to unwind... and I can't help thinking that a collapse in demand in the USA is going to bash their export trade. Big reductions in forex coming into China and the party will be over.

We have a long way to go down yet, methinks.

CityUnslicker said...

Croy - Too many fundamental problems outside of banking unresolved.

Sammy - I have some bargains....purchased at considerably higer prices...;o(

BE - Jonah brown's plan to go wrong, how could that happen??

Mark - No one who knows disagrees.

Steven - My car went wrong last week, you may be next according to BE's karma theory...

Mr Weetabix - Welcome. Quite true, there is a staggering amount of underwater debt in China. I guess the Government thinks it can just pay the interest in the form of handouts until such a time as interest has eaten away the value of the principle.
China will waste its'earned' hard currency this way and thus its advance will be restrained. They know they have a problem though, look at their stock market.

Steven_L said...

'BE's karma theory' (CU)

Is that a public school version of sods law then?

Unsworth said...

Re China

Never underestimate the Chinese ability to survive. It's no big deal if starvation and pestilence strike - never has been to the Chinese. Nor have the Chinese ever really bothered themselves with 'ethics' so if they want to renege, they will.

Imagine that going on here - or anywhere in the 'western' world for that matter.

As you say, a long way down from here. My guess is this is a bounce and we'll see other mini-bounces over the next few weeks, but the underlying is falling and will do so for several months. Christmas is going to be very interesting and January very cold.

Anonymous said...

Hang on a minute, China is in major trouble is it?

What I don't understand is that if China is in major trouble, can't it sell it's US Government bonds and dip into it's trade surplus and general surplus that it has?

Anonymous said...

God the 1970.s all over again.I remember it well, very depressing.Labour never learn.

CityUnslicker said...

Mr Pop - and who would buy those assets then?

China buys US asets to finance the overdraft with which to export its goods to the US.

The merry go round stopping causes as much, if not more, pain for China than the US.

The naive idea that China is the sole winner will get found out quite quickly. As i said, go look at their markets if you want to see how spooked they are.

Anonymous said...

I was inclined to buy the Thursday before the bounce, but there was one thing that held me back (and continues to hold me back). I really don't think the market prices have taken into account the earnings depression that we are entering.

We should have a significant bear market rally somewhere in here. I just don't care to bet on it as I think we will break the previous lows by a substantial amount in the future. We still haven't seen the 8 percent decline in GDP that typically accompanies the bursting of a housing bubble or the sharp reduction in consumer spending.

Americans were much more exposed to housing in 2007 than they were to tech stocks in 2000; and the leverage was much greater. It's hard to imagine this correction ending 15 months after it started when smaller problems have lasted longer in the past.

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