Wednesday 30 January 2019

I Think We Know What Happens Next ...

Open thread.

But IMHO, if Mrs May must re-negotiate the deal within 2 weeks, well, the EC can certainly hold its breath for at least that long ...

ND

17 comments:

E-K said...

It seems the backstop ruse worked.

Very crafty woman.

Anonymous said...

I've given up watching the new, so a little behind - what's likely to happen next?

Bill Quango MP said...

The result looks like the one Corbyn wanted.
He backed his Blairite opponent, but left it late enough that confusion reigned and she failed. Which is what he wanted.
He can say, I tried my best to Brexit. But parliament voted to leave, yet again. So now, I will force my compromises on May. I will meet with her to ensure labour's voice is heard!

Gives him more room to privately back her, to get us out of Brexit before he takes over.
Looks to his Corbynistas, who readily believe black is white, but were struggling with his lack of EU flag waving enthusiasm.

Labour certainly looked riven. They looked like the Tories usually do on Brexit.
But I doubt he will be too worried. He can 'honestly' say he really tried, by backing Cooper-Balls, to remain.Can carry on with his very tricky position of hoping others leave for him.

He wants out. Just doesn't want to be seen to be helping the UK leave.

As for the EU, if it was anyone but May, the UK leader should be making those threats. 'Change the deal, or WTO in 8 weeks.Up to you,suckers!'

But...it's May. So she will mess it up.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

The real danger is that the EU really do back down on the backstop and then the useless bastards vote for the rest of the WA, full of nastiness as it is, with continued use of the European arrest warrant, absorption into the emerging EU military structures, etc etc.

We should just leave and keep our £39bn. It's like the Gordian knot, better to sever it and start again.

tolkein said...

58 days to go.

If no change to the backstop it will be the EU putting up a hard border in Ireland, despite the protestations of the Irish who will then realise they've been played by the EU

I think there is now a chance the WA will go through with the backstop dealt with.

Thud said...

I've stuck with May on this from the beginning partly because I can't be arsed figuring out whats happening and I figure given we pay her she may as well do the job and partly to annoy all the nutters this bollocks attracts....I'm a happy little soul me!

tolkein said...

In 2 weeks time she'll come back to the House and say that intense discussions are going on - with 44 days to go

andrew said...

I think we will go on WTO because the EU really does not think we have the will.

Shortly after, we will find out we don't.

James Higham said...

All the right people were glum after last evening's shenanigans, so that was one thing.

DJK said...

Our legislature has made a pretty unedifying sight over the last few weeks. Posturing doesn't even begin to describe it.

Nick Drew said...

BQ, @ if it was anyone but May

yes, that's the thing. She signalled her readiness to blink almost before she'd sat down in 2016, over Hinkley; and they've all got her measure

hovis said...

@DJK: the Augean Stables will still need to be cleaned no matter what they do next.

Anonymous said...

@ 9:19
You need to be careful, talking about 'cleaning'.

Hamish McDougall said...

As BQ says, it's May - so she will mess it up. May is the most abjectly hopeless negotiator in the world, and the worst PM of my lifetime. It would have been astonishing to find that May had retained the same negotiating team as before – the team tagging along for the past 2½ years of unremitting failure, with the odd resignation – were we not accustomed to her even more astonishing obstinacy, lack of imagination, failure to heed advice or to consult, world-class incompetence in negotiation, and bizarre, arbitrary changes of direction. The much touted Crawford Falconer sounds eminently well qualified as our negotiator – perhaps, very many will nod wearily, that’s why he has been sidelined again.

Anonymous said...

I have just watched the whole of Steve Baker's evidence to the Parliamentary Brexit Cttee.
Watch, listen and weep.
Has to be 'no deal' and let's start again with May Barwell and Liddington (and of course Robins) sent to the Moon.

Nick Drew said...

@ Hamish McDougall

A good summary. I was just about around for Anthony Eden, and I too agree she is the worst PM, worst negotiator etc etc

Funnily enough we are, right now, in a better strategic position than for many months - but she is capable of pissing this up a wall (so to speak ...)

The only hope is that the EC misreads its position which, given the manic hubris of the most malevolent of their number, might actually be possible

They have such a good deal in front of them now that if they let it slip for the sake of IE they will be nuts

andrew said...

Nd
The point of the eu is the rules - the 4 freedoms. If they compromise then the eu is no longer the eu. Then there is no point to the eu.