tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post1257837856027075848..comments2024-03-28T09:55:42.123+00:00Comments on Capitalists@Work: Energy Crisis Rumbles OnCityUnslickerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15929544047783163175noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-12014311412992046872021-09-24T16:35:55.432+01:002021-09-24T16:35:55.432+01:00That's an interesting comment on the 50MW jobb...That's an interesting comment on the 50MW jobbers. You must write more about it.<br /><br />Locally there is a chicken farmer who put their farm up for sale. Builder offered £1.2mn to put in the land bank as it is on the fringe of an expanding south coast town. <br /><br />Farmer had a knock on the door and 2 strangers said they were in the energy business and would like to make an offer. Few days later, their surveyor turned up by helicopter along with reps from the company and offered £1.7mn as the land was crossed by distribution lines which they need to "connect to"<br /><br />Seems there is more profit in watts that homes. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-37406896163096275842021-09-24T11:53:45.018+01:002021-09-24T11:53:45.018+01:00The BBC has some thin commentary, as ever.
https:...The BBC has some thin commentary, as ever.<br /><br />https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58650634<br /><br />What I can't get my head around is why Belgium's wholesale gas prices are dramatically lower than other European countries around it!<br /><br />Can anyone provide some insight? :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-31030145268029792712021-09-24T09:16:50.705+01:002021-09-24T09:16:50.705+01:00anon 6.58 - Humans have been breathing the product...anon 6.58 - Humans have been breathing the products of burnt hydrocarbons since we first left the trees. I must admit there were a lot fewer of us though in those days. <br /><br />In 1950 there were half as many humans in Africa as in Europe. Now there are 2.5 times as many Africans as Europeans, projected to be 4.5x by 2050 and 8x by 2100. European population has been pretty static.<br /><br />As I like to point out, the population of Ethiopia has doubled since Live Aid in 1985. It's projected to be over 200m by 2050, not that far short of the entire African population in 1950.<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Africa#History <br /><br />It's weird how the Guardian/BBC axis considers climate change a huge threat to the planet but not population increase.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-75403859132009928212021-09-24T07:47:53.488+01:002021-09-24T07:47:53.488+01:00"I don't think you can make money by smoo..."I don't think you can make money by smoothing grid power using a Tesla battery pack. But it makes more sense if you're not connected to the grid in the first place and all you have available is solar, and perhaps a small, diesel generator."<br /><br />Yes, batteries could be helpful for isolated villages in Africa or Indonesia, where solar also makes sense. Perhaps also for a ranch in Texas, or for a Scottish island with wind power.<br /><br />But I think they're too expensive for the African villagers. Maybe a clever African will come up with a cheaper alternative.<br /><br />Don<br /><br />Don CoxDon Coxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06339420519741253080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-63242318998428651842021-09-24T06:58:31.910+01:002021-09-24T06:58:31.910+01:00@iopener
Who doesn’t love breathing the by produc...@iopener<br /><br />Who doesn’t love breathing the by products of burnt hydro carbons<br />Puts feathers on yer chest<br />Quack Quack Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-90177034663847400572021-09-23T20:05:48.754+01:002021-09-23T20:05:48.754+01:00Gasoline, diesel and most of the other hydrocarbon...Gasoline, diesel and most of the other hydrocarbons are virtually perfect media for the storage and transport of chemical energy.<br /><br />Will any Mallards roosting here please tell me again why we need to replace them with the idiot contraptions they constantly propose?iOpenerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00059950887197561123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-24610462387556220712021-09-23T17:01:20.684+01:002021-09-23T17:01:20.684+01:00I don't think you can make money by smoothing ...I don't think you can make money by smoothing grid power using a Tesla battery pack. But it makes more sense if you're not connected to the grid in the first place and all you have available is solar, and perhaps a small, diesel generator.DJKnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-36980189734407159232021-09-23T13:03:50.217+01:002021-09-23T13:03:50.217+01:00On battery storage, what's amusing is you can ...On battery storage, what's amusing is you can go to Tesla's website and order yourself online a 50MWh Megapack - can you pay with Paypal? Only for installation in some US states right now. Costs $16.3 million + sales tax, with $62k/year annual maintenance (increasing by 2% every year).<br /><br />But at Tesla prices I don't see how a profit could be made just from selling into the daily peaks. Anyway Megapack has a 4 hour discharge time, not really well suited for grid use, so I guess it is marketed to business that wants on-site emergency backup + a bit of tariff time shifting.<br /><br />https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design<br /><br />But it sure looks like a booming industry.rwendlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07861901317813829419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-76126527399165485942021-09-23T12:14:58.313+01:002021-09-23T12:14:58.313+01:00Jim - I take the opposite view having used smart p...Jim - I take the opposite view having used smart phones / tablets. <br />Modern batteries have such a short shelf life of practical usability that if the same technology is being used in industrial sized operations, I can't see how they could ever be profitable. <br />Batteries that give 13 hours decent usage when new within months I find drop down considerably. My 2 year old tablet now only lasts a couple of hours on a charge.<br /><br />Not sure I'd ever feel comfortable buying a used EV that was more than a year old, unless it came with a battery guarantee.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-24924381907705808682021-09-23T11:51:24.727+01:002021-09-23T11:51:24.727+01:00The people who are going to build Sizewell C are i...The people who are going to build Sizewell C are in a very strong negotiating position.<br /><br />Don CoxDon Coxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06339420519741253080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-2867033500953225172021-09-23T10:38:41.712+01:002021-09-23T10:38:41.712+01:00Think I'll pass on LongVol.
A fleet of 50MW g...Think I'll pass on LongVol.<br /><br />A fleet of 50MW gen sets? Not a 5 minute job to set up and they drink 10,000L/hour of diesel or gas equivalent. Not for your average 3/4" gas pipe but 4 road tankers/day should provide say 12 hours running. Add in the logistics of feeding that lot and then copy/paste. The price would have to be pretty steep to make a profit on that lot - still its all down to Boris and if it stops the lights going out.... Thankfully my supplier has not gone bust - yet - and I'm locked in for a while.<br /><br />I think the smartphone is to blame. Folk think, Oh my smartphone lasts ages, why can't we cobble a few together and power Newcastle. The electronics in smartphones have improved immensely, but the batteries not very much and there ain't no substitute for horsepower in a car or horsepower's worth as heat.<br /><br />Smartphones = milliwatts average, towns = megawatts average, 1000,000,000 times greater. Cellphone battery = say 7 watt hours, Newcastle say 300 megawatts so 43,000,000 cellphones might keep Newcastle up for 1 hour. So that idea is a bit stuffed. BTW, 1 Gigawatt sounds a lot but is p%^s-all in national terms.jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00470816959796395467noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-24262983282970855642021-09-23T10:29:23.652+01:002021-09-23T10:29:23.652+01:00And I bet my bottom dollar this was not reckoned o...And I bet my bottom dollar this was not reckoned on...<br /><br /><br />https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/20/study-extreme-decadal-wind-variability-adds-uncertainty-to-climate-predictions/<br /><br />"Missing wind variability means future impacts of climate change may be underestimated in Europe and North America<br /><br />by University of Reading<br /><br />Extratropical winds have a strong influence on climate in extratropical regions, and are known to vary from decade to decade. However, their variability is currently not factored into climate models making predictions for future climates in these regions. Researchers inserted these into predictions for how extratropical climates will change by the middle of the century, and found uncertainty increased significantly, meaning unusually hot, cold, dry or wet decades are likely to be more frequent here than previously thought."<br /><br />We really really need to stop voting for cretinous fools who are ideologically possessed. No? Elby the Beserkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15060519682739666145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-53942527190886754462021-09-23T10:27:20.098+01:002021-09-23T10:27:20.098+01:00Nick,
China is not trying. They may be pretending...Nick,<br /><br />China is not trying. They may be pretending to try, but they are not, and whilst they and India build coal powered stations nothing we do will make a blind bit of difference, apart from wrecking the economy and impoverishing all of us. Nothing we do will make any difference to CO2 (of that stuff worries you. Not me... <br /><br />"The Sun is more active now than over the last 8000 years<br />An international team of scientists has reconstructed the Sun's activity over the last 11 millennia and forecasts decreased activity within a few decades<br /><br />OCTOBER 28, 2004<br />The activity of the Sun over the last 11,400 years, i.e., back to the end of the last ice age on Earth, has now for the first time been reconstructed quantitatively by an international group of researchers led by Sami K. Solanki from the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany). The scientists have analyzed the radioactive isotopes in trees that lived thousands of years ago. As the scientists from Germany, Finland, and Switzerland report in the current issue of the science journal "Nature" from October 28, one needs to go back over 8,000 years in order to find a time when the Sun was, on average, as active as in the last 60 years. Based on a statistical study of earlier periods of increased solar activity, the researchers predict that the current level of high solar activity will probably continue only for a few more decades."<br /><br />https://www.mpg.de/research/sun-activity-high<br /><br />... so these net zero carbon free idiocies seem to be intentionally malevolent. Elby the Beserkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15060519682739666145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-44382976622433452672021-09-23T10:23:35.245+01:002021-09-23T10:23:35.245+01:00Storage - another big issue!
The new blogpost d...Storage - another big issue! <br /><br />The new blogpost desiderata are stacking up ...Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-1012547857138409252021-09-23T10:04:44.517+01:002021-09-23T10:04:44.517+01:00What the view here of gas storage - has the lack o...What the view here of gas storage - has the lack of gas storage in the UK played any part in the current situation? <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-36354126704335436802021-09-23T08:05:10.972+01:002021-09-23T08:05:10.972+01:00We were waiting for you, Mr W
"probably sell...We were waiting for you, Mr W<br /><br />"<i>probably selling profitably into the daily peaks</i>": no, <b>definitely</b> making an absolute fortune right now (if they are well managed), actually beyond their wildest dreams: some projects have seen 18-month payback<br /><br />One way these guys work is to place their 50MW jobbers at carefully chosen nodes on the grid (with NG collaboration) so that they can bypass the distribution companies, who are absolute dinosaurs (mostly) and just get in the way - which can't be allowed to persist because in principle they have a key role to play. (Ofgem is trying to hurry them along)<br /><br />I must write a post about this ...<br /><br />anything that can provide flexibility (primarily batteries and gas reciprocating engines, which have largely and mercifully supplanted the rash of dirty diesels of 5 years ago) that is up and running by the time this winter kicks in, will have paid back its investors in a single season<br /><br />volatility is the name of the game; and these guys with their extreme optionality are "long vol". It was ever thus, (Enron was the pioneer) but the opportunities have grown beyond anything Enron was ever able to access<br /><br />strategically, what's needed now is a blockchain-based scheme to share the benefits, because right now the LongVol types are creaming it all off for themselves where logically it "belongs to the system". Before you nod off and say, "<i>blockchain, yeah yeah</i>" ... this means <b>you</b> as potential beneficiary, BTW: although everyone talks about "price signals" to assist with "demand-side response" and optimising the time of day people use their electrical stuff and charge their cars, it's in its infancy right now<br /><br />I need to write a post about blockchain ...Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-37073853606401268882021-09-23T00:48:16.181+01:002021-09-23T00:48:16.181+01:00... I am seriously behind the times. gov.uk says t...... I am seriously behind the times. gov.uk says there was "1 GW of battery storage already in operation" in 2020:<br /><br />https://www.gov.uk/government/news/battery-storage-boost-to-power-greener-electricity-grid<br /><br />This website says there was 1.3GW active in May this year, and a pipeline of "16GW of projects with the potential for deployment over the next few years":<br /><br />https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blogs/top_ten_uk_battery_storage_projects_forecast_for_2021_completion<br /><br />Looks like it already economic, with a serious amount coming on-stream the next few years.rwendlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07861901317813829419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-90302798998436920802021-09-23T00:29:12.707+01:002021-09-23T00:29:12.707+01:00Anon @10:14 pm - AFAIK UK grid-scale battery stora...Anon @10:14 pm - AFAIK UK grid-scale battery storage amounts to 200MWh (250MWh by end of this year) or more.<br /><br />Stocking Pelham 50MWh lithium-ion batteries came online in 2018 near Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire, co-located with some solar PV.<br /><br />I believe there was another 50MWh in 2018: "40MW battery park in Glassenbury, Kent and a 10MW battery park in Cleator, Cumbria".<br /><br />This year 150MWh is coming online in the Minety battery storage project, next to a major grid step-down transformer site, a bit north-west of Swindon. 100MWh online already, with another 50MWh by year end. LiFePo4 battery technology. Shell Energy Europe Limited is involved in the management, but not ownership, I believe. China Huaneng Group was the main contractor:<br /><br />https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/minety-battery-storage-project/<br /><br />Don't know how long they are designed to discharge in, but I'd guess an hour or two. As ND says enough time in an emergency to get the contracted small diesel generators etc rolling. Also probably selling profitably into the daily peaks.<br /><br />I'd guess we will see a slow stream of these fairly small schemes over the next few years.rwendlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07861901317813829419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-41813953129002625752021-09-22T22:14:42.027+01:002021-09-22T22:14:42.027+01:00"a growing amount of grid-scale storage (50MW...<i>"a growing amount of grid-scale storage (50MW+) in UK"</i><br /><br />Sorry, ND, what does it consist of? (Not that 50mW is a lot, and how long does that last?) Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-14620465925487190332021-09-22T22:00:51.441+01:002021-09-22T22:00:51.441+01:00Battery - tech improves all the time but yes, 2 ho...Battery - tech improves all the time but yes, 2 hours' discharge is leading edge right now and is therefore only of use for frequency response and very short-term fixes before other stuff can limber up into action. For all Elon Musk's BS, his mega-storage in Oz is pitiful, relative to the rhetoric. There is a growing amount of grid-scale storage (50MW+) in UK, which has its uses, intelligently deployed (it's fantastically difficult to optimise, tho' of course software is improving rapidly too) - but the above comments apply.<br /><br />Hydrogen via electrolysis is better for bulk storage over time (though not high efficiency)Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-61670015726965776082021-09-22T21:55:30.932+01:002021-09-22T21:55:30.932+01:00Gridwatch - yes, a very salutary month for wind po...Gridwatch - yes, a very salutary month for wind power!Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-40135953184241115862021-09-22T21:11:05.019+01:002021-09-22T21:11:05.019+01:00Some visuals
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/...Some visuals <br /><br />http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-82290647042434319312021-09-22T19:34:40.021+01:002021-09-22T19:34:40.021+01:00(I should maybe have said, Norway don't really...(I should maybe have said, Norway don't really need pumped storage, as water keeps flowing downhill even if its dark or the wind drops, doubtless they could do more but why should they? They have nearly 33gw of hydro, about the same as current UK demand as I type)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-47098545258894051352021-09-22T19:27:13.988+01:002021-09-22T19:27:13.988+01:00"The future must be on battery and pumped sto...<i>"The future must be on battery and pumped storage"</i><br /><br />The battery hasn't been invented yet that combines size/capacity/safety/recycling/carbon to produce.<br /><br />Pumped storage - not an option in the UK, we just don't have enough steep-sided valleys, unless you want to flood the Lake District, Snowdonia and Scotland - and even then it wouldn't be enough. Norway, pumped storage kings, perfect geography, has less than 1.5gw of pumped generating capacity (the UK actually has nearly 1gw, but very small reservoirs so it soon runs out).<br /><br />https://www.hydropower.org/country-profiles/norway <br /><br />A question no one ever asks about pumped storage is "where do you get all that water to pump?". Can't use seawater unless you want to do huge damage.<br /><br />I guess we'll have to wait for the Chinese to crack thorium salt reactors (once their uranium ones have produced sufficient plutonium) and then sell them to us, complete with built in remote kill switches. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-67948602450198178222021-09-22T17:12:42.353+01:002021-09-22T17:12:42.353+01:00Notice that (at time of writing) the price per MWh...Notice that (at time of writing) the price per MWh has dropped below £120, despite entering the evening pickup, thanks, one assumes, to wind generation (finally…) getting going. https://www.bmreports.com/bmrs/?q=eds/main<br /><br />The future must be on battery and pumped storage or, ah-hem, “demand management” via shedding loads either explicitly via smart meter limiting or pricing (or both). Not saying I’m in favour of any of this, but you can’t fight the inevitable.<br />Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06915620880736492907noreply@blogger.com