tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post135306157332497679..comments2024-03-28T09:55:42.123+00:00Comments on Capitalists@Work: UK shrinks 2.6% in November - apparently great newsCityUnslickerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15929544047783163175noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-71326707872761436812021-01-20T13:43:27.897+00:002021-01-20T13:43:27.897+00:00I think if you were to include house prices, the C...I think if you were to include house prices, the CPI announced today should be close to 7%Graemehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11007306140530173428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-18959042521210226002021-01-19T09:02:03.992+00:002021-01-19T09:02:03.992+00:00Nessimmersion - "ONS all cause mortality for ...Nessimmersion - <i>"ONS all cause mortality for 2020, about the only thing that cannot be massaged, 2020 overall was 6th worst in last 20 years., death rates in Dec Jan within 5 yearly average, nothing unusual."</i><br /><br />That's not what I see for England and Wales.<br /><br />https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/12735annualdeathsandmortalityrates1938to2020provisional<br /><br />Raw number of deaths highest since 1918 (flu)<br />Deaths/100,000 highest since 2003<br /><br />Ah, I see, you're looking at "Age-standardised mortality rate" which was indeed higher in 2010 and for every single previous year. It seems to show improvements in medical care long-term. It was twice the rate in 1958, admittedly a bad flu year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-48235557060737354262021-01-19T09:01:00.577+00:002021-01-19T09:01:00.577+00:00This announcement by Matt Hancock is just about th...This announcement by Matt Hancock is just about the most sinister announcement I have ever heard a politician make. It may have struck me harder because I've been ignoring the news. Something is rotten....<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-nkxqR1Fqo&t=4s&ab_channel=GuardianNewslilithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05011676751221508167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-67580254913337599312021-01-18T22:42:23.191+00:002021-01-18T22:42:23.191+00:00DJK - "If it's true as reported that the ...DJK - <i>"If it's true as reported that the UK population shrunk by 1.3 million"</i><br /><br />You'll have noticed the huge drop in house prices /sarc<br /><br />I think these figures may have been done by the same people who predicted that only 13,000 Poles would move here after EU enlargement.<br /><br />https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/feb/27/eu.immigration <br /><br /><i>British fears of an influx of immigrants from eastern European countries joining the EU in May were rubbished in Brussels yesterday as a new survey found that total migration into existing member states after the EU's biggest ever enlargement is likely to be about 1% over the next five years.</i><br /><br /><i>If correct, the figures mean there will be about 220,000 immigrants a year into all 15 current members. That suggests that the government's original "open-door" estimate of 5,000 to 13,000 a year coming to the UK is realistic and does not require limits on benefits, quotas or other restrictive measures.</i><br /><br /><i>"This study confirms the commission's view that fears of a huge wave of migration from the new member states will be proven to be unfounded," insisted Margot Wallstrom, commissioner for employment and social affairs.</i><br /><br /><i>Pat Cox, the Irish president of the European parliament, was blunter. "The biggest flood we've had to date is not of humans, but the flood of ink on tabloid red tops," he said.</i> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-25064969851839529312021-01-18T22:08:22.464+00:002021-01-18T22:08:22.464+00:00I’ve been doing annual stats today, for 2020.
Ear...I’ve been doing annual stats today, for 2020.<br /><br />Early March 2020 was an increase in trade. Due to the incoming worry about ‘That China Flu.’ Turnover up around 30%.<br />Come lockdown business falls. We were open the whole time. But as others have said, it wasn’t business as normal. And people panic bought and then stayed home permanently. Turnover fell 60%. Thats for an essential business that remained open.<br /><br />However, the curve rose every month, until November and December which show large increases in turnover, up to 50%, until, panic over second lockdown and the eventual early end to Christmas.<br /><br />Currently, figures for now look to be about the same as last January,. Maybe 15% down. It’s always hard to tell January. Need a quarter to really judge it.<br /><br />So I would say, lockdown 2 is not comparable to lockdown one. It is more as others have said. It is a semi-lockdown we are already used to.<br />Without a vaccine, I don’t think it would be like this cases are rising very quickly, <br />Wife’s, In laws have the whole family infected., and everyone they met with at Xmas had it. Ten of them in all. Oldest two aren’t likely to make it. Both on ventilators.<br /><br />I suspect without a vaccine on the way, people would be far more cautious than they are.<br />Bill Quango MPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14861116614665461655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-43114414275753628472021-01-18T20:34:22.493+00:002021-01-18T20:34:22.493+00:00An unknown for me is tax rises and the hit to pens...An unknown for me is tax rises and the hit to pension funds. E-Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16657071992016670517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-54141027850517560682021-01-18T18:05:34.733+00:002021-01-18T18:05:34.733+00:00If it's true as reported that the UK populatio...If it's true as reported that the UK population shrunk by 1.3 million, then that alone would produce about a 2% fall in GDP.DJKnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-60434563253153516502021-01-18T18:00:11.928+00:002021-01-18T18:00:11.928+00:00Old BE.
ONS all cause mortality for 2020, about th...Old BE.<br />ONS all cause mortality for 2020, about the only thing that cannot be massaged, 2020 overall was 6th worst in last 20 years., death rates in Dec Jan within 5 yearly average, nothing unusual.<br />NHS as usual was unprepared for winter, it came as a surprise that there was an increase in respiratory illnesses in Nov, they are doing PCR tests with a known false positive rate of 25% according to PHE, staff are taking tests, going off sick and care homes will not take patients with positive PCR. So a self imposed crisis due to inability to see the blinfdingly obvious.<br />I'm less optimistic that the hospitality sector can bounce back, delivery service is keeping a lot going hand to mouth but there is nothing left over to repay debt or reinvest. Aviation support is massively affected by lockdown, RR forecasts a massive cut in revenues.Nessimmersionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04368279239973641917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-89713044742472459902021-01-18T17:45:22.550+00:002021-01-18T17:45:22.550+00:00Most people I know are working one way or another,...Most people I know are working one way or another, this lockdown is being much more ignored than the first.Thudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18320037763190473684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-25780984856190407582021-01-18T16:50:23.347+00:002021-01-18T16:50:23.347+00:00
It will be interesting to see how many of us have...<br />It will be interesting to see how many of us have been playing a part in the broken window fallacy without realising.<br />andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311993288675111834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-46566506704292182792021-01-18T14:31:46.613+00:002021-01-18T14:31:46.613+00:00
“To a large extent the pandemic is long over“
Wh...<br />“To a large extent the pandemic is long over“<br /><br />Which hospitalisation stats are you looking at?<br /><br />I think this lockdown will be less severe for the economy because we’re used to it now and have built what we can to work through it. First time around it took people a while to work out delivery systems etc. - now they can just ramp them back up again and so on.<br /><br />This has been going on so long, I won’t predict how much hysteresis there will be. Loads of businesses won’t just pop back up again as if nothing has changed. Old BEhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06974090439936326476noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-4751013447563586892021-01-18T14:06:48.341+00:002021-01-18T14:06:48.341+00:00"For me, some of the logic is poor, the secon..."For me, some of the logic is poor, the second lockdown was not like the first, shops and schools were open and people were fed up with the restrictions when virus infections 'felt' low. If you fast forward to today, it is a lot more like the first lockdown. "<br /><br />Lockdown 3 is nothing like the Lockdown 1. Then just about all businesses closed, regardless of whether they had to or not. Unless it was vital everyone closed up and went home. Now just about every business is open, other than the ones who are closed by law, ie shops/pubs etc. The trades are all on full chat, the traffic on the roads is many multiples of what it was in L1. I'm a farmer and was out and about during L1 as I had to be, the country was like a ghost town. Around my parts I'd say economic activity has been very similar ever since L1 ended and people started to get back to work. Since then they've not stopped.Sobershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11407417389022146963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-68638155813131661732021-01-18T13:59:40.974+00:002021-01-18T13:59:40.974+00:00To a large extent the pandemic is long over, howev...To a large extent the pandemic is long over, however the panic-demic continues.<br />99% of the damage to the economy is done by the political reaction for whatever reason.<br />The damage will continue until the punishment beatings stop. <br />ONS stats- 2020 overall mortality 6th worst in last 20 years.Nessimmersionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04368279239973641917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-79080718179404034602021-01-18T13:59:21.786+00:002021-01-18T13:59:21.786+00:00To a large extent the pandemic is long over, howev...To a large extent the pandemic is long over, however the panic-demic continues.<br />99% of the damage to the economy is done by the political reaction for whatever reason.<br />The damage will continue until the punishment beatings stop. <br />ONS stats- 2020 overall mortality 6th worst in last 20 years.Nessimmersionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04368279239973641917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-56007765787979146882021-01-18T13:11:45.123+00:002021-01-18T13:11:45.123+00:00How much inflation do you think is too much ?
Don...How much inflation do you think is too much ?<br /><br />Don CoxDon Coxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06339420519741253080noreply@blogger.com