tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post3469239500638789423..comments2024-03-28T22:45:51.014+00:00Comments on Capitalists@Work: Discussion thread: Impact of immigration on UK wagesCityUnslickerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15929544047783163175noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-87123994480220135362017-03-18T21:58:16.939+00:002017-03-18T21:58:16.939+00:00Japan is not in big trouble - or if it is, I wish ...Japan is not in big trouble - or if it is, I wish the UK was in that kind of trouble. <br /><br />High wages, huge trade surplus, technological leadership. And in 50 years time Japan will still be full of Japanese. <br /><br /><i>"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell"</i><br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/08/opinion/sunday/the-true-story-of-japans-economic-success.html <br /><br /><i>"Take, for instance, how Western observers have viewed Japan’s demographics. The population is getting older because of a low birthrate, a characteristic Japan shares with many of the world’s richest nations. Yet this is presented not only as a critical problem but as a policy failure. It never seems to occur to Western commentators that the Japanese both individually and collectively have chosen their demographic fate — and have good reasons for doing so.<br /><br />The story begins in the terrible winter of 1945-6, when, newly bereft of their empire, the Japanese nearly starved to death. With overseas expansion no longer an option, Japanese leaders determined as a top priority to cut the birthrate. Thereafter a culture of small families set in that has continued to the present day.<br /><br />Japan’s motivation is clear: food security. With only about one-third as much arable land per capita as China, Japan has long been the world’s largest net food importer. While the birth control policy is the primary cause of Japan’s aging demographics, the phenomenon also reflects improved health care and an increase of more than 20 years in life expectancy since 1950.<br /><br />Psychology aside, a major factor in the West’s comprehension problem is that virtually everyone in Tokyo benefits from the doom and gloom story. For foreign sales representatives, for instance, it has been the perfect get-out-of-jail card when they don’t reach their quotas. For Japanese foundations it is the perfect excuse in politely waving away solicitations from American universities and other needy nonprofits. Ditto for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in tempering expectations of foreign aid recipients. Even American investment bankers have reasons to emphasize bad news. Most notably they profit from the so-called yen-carry trade, an arcane but powerful investment strategy in which the well informed benefit from periodic bouts of weakness in the Japanese yen.<br /><br />Economic ideology has also played an unfortunate role. Many economists, particularly right-wing think-tank types, are such staunch advocates of laissez-faire that they reflexively scorn Japan’s very different economic system, with its socialist medicine and ubiquitous government regulation. During the stock market bubble of the late 1980s, this mind-set abated but it came back after the crash.<br /><br />Japanese trade negotiators noticed an almost magical sweetening in the mood in foreign capitals after the stock market crashed in 1990. Although previously there had been much envy of Japan abroad (and serious talk of protectionist measures), in the new circumstances American and European trade negotiators switched to feeling sorry for the “fallen giant.” Nothing if not fast learners, Japanese trade negotiators have been appealing for sympathy ever since.<br /><br />The strategy seems to have been particularly effective in Washington. Believing that you shouldn’t kick a man when he is down, chivalrous American officials have largely given up pressing for the opening of Japan’s markets. Yet the great United States trade complaints of the late 1980s — concerning rice, financial services, cars and car components — were never remedied."</i><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-14971009582012053972017-03-18T16:15:50.948+00:002017-03-18T16:15:50.948+00:00@Anon - 11.22; cheers for that - it didn't mak...@Anon - 11.22; cheers for that - it didn't make it that clear.Dick the Prickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02683095612320513712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-5765427309335083102017-03-18T15:50:25.190+00:002017-03-18T15:50:25.190+00:00That was pretty well my point EK. We are in much b...That was pretty well my point EK. We are in much better shape than a lot of countries. The main reason Japan is in big trouble? Its population is shrinking.Blue Eyeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16556174219724957585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-72571889005024742762017-03-18T14:03:18.688+00:002017-03-18T14:03:18.688+00:00Anon 11.37 - Labour reforms post WW1 and WW2 saw h...Anon 11.37 - Labour reforms post WW1 and WW2 saw higher wages and better conditions... because of a paucity of young men rather than the unions becoming good negotiators. Electro-Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18073103431166273080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-13199051975139226502017-03-18T14:00:57.252+00:002017-03-18T14:00:57.252+00:00FIJ are all in economic trouble. FIJ are all in economic trouble. Electro-Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18073103431166273080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-64428672253816577632017-03-18T13:28:20.592+00:002017-03-18T13:28:20.592+00:00On optimum levels of self sufficiency
Simple
We...On optimum levels of self sufficiency <br /><br />Simple<br /><br />We grow the least we can whilst preserving the ability to go self sufficient in a timescale where not many starve. andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311993288675111834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-41171262053301098262017-03-18T12:59:56.601+00:002017-03-18T12:59:56.601+00:00Global. Y'know, all the continents.
EK actual...Global. Y'know, all the continents.<br /><br />EK actually I meant France, Italy, Japan and others.Blue Eyeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16556174219724957585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-1063431720222086462017-03-18T11:37:11.117+00:002017-03-18T11:37:11.117+00:00I don't see how the global workforce can be in...I don't see how the global workforce can be in decline, as Africa's population, having doubled in the last 30-odd years, is set to double again. Ethiopia's population has doubled since we were putting our hands in our pockets for Live Aid, and is now 100 million (and we're being asked to <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/news/extra-e165m-from-eu-for-drought-crisis-in-south-sudan-somalia-ethiopia/" rel="nofollow">chip in again)</a>.<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Africa<br /><br /><i>"As of 2013, the total population of Africa is estimated at 1.1 billion, representing approximately 15% of the world's population. According to UN estimates, the population of Africa may reach nearly 2.5 billion by 2050 (about 26% of the world's total) and nearly 4.4 billion by 2100 (about 39% of the world's total)"</i><br /><br />Of course the biggest UK wage rise (for the survivors), plus liberation from feudal serfdom, came after the Black Death had reduced the workforce by 30%. And the US was developed by what Ben Franklin called a policy of "cheap land and high wages". The UK seems to be following the opposite course. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-27024111527849692072017-03-18T11:22:33.624+00:002017-03-18T11:22:33.624+00:00DTP - I have a feeling that they were looking at a...DTP - I have a feeling that they were looking at a report that said that the real wage FALL was the most prolonged in 200 years, not net average wage. <br /><br />Real male wages are lower than 1997, and we've just heard that as a proportion of real average wages, house prices have doubled since 1997.<br /><br />(I prefer median to average wages, as average is distorted upwards by the 1%. 99 people earning 25k and 1 earning 2.5m gives an average of 49.75k. 99 people earning 45k and one earning 520k gives exactly the same average, but I'd rather be in the second example.) <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-65994173735661797732017-03-18T11:08:04.312+00:002017-03-18T11:08:04.312+00:00@BE - 'The global workforce (i.e. working-age ...@BE - 'The global workforce (i.e. working-age population) is at its peak and is set to decline' - not sure that's true, they've got 11.2 billion by 2100 from about 8 billion now. Couple that with pension age increasing etc.Dick the Prickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02683095612320513712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-24346063131821958612017-03-18T11:03:38.009+00:002017-03-18T11:03:38.009+00:00They had a graph on Sky stating that net average w...They had a graph on Sky stating that net average wages were the lowest for over 200 years - obviously, you can instantly call bullshit on this, but it would have been interesting to see how they weighted the metrics.<br /><br />Whilst it's certainly true that higher earners have more ability to travel, I think some regard should be paid to English being the world's second language thus increasing the incentive for people to come here on a whim. Coupled with the tax credits abortion that we run, everyone's a winner.<br /><br /> From a local politics perspective, it wasn't 'the numbers' as such which made me furious but the totally unplanned and random nature of the changes. This school funding imbroglio is just another perfectly preventable fuckup on the theme. Dick the Prickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02683095612320513712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-13449119864942887712017-03-18T10:41:52.956+00:002017-03-18T10:41:52.956+00:009.02 - We'll see. But I reckon that if we cont...9.02 - We'll see. But I reckon that if we continue to import poor people then we can only maintain the standard of living through borrowing. One or the other has to give. <br /><br />9.04 - So instead of 7.5 billion potential willing workers we have 6.5 billion.<br /><br />9.04/2 - "And is significantly lower than many of our competitors" meaning BRICs ? Proof that an abundance of workers = competitive export prices .... because of lower wages. <br /><br />Electro-Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18073103431166273080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-62353577078069374242017-03-18T09:04:34.539+00:002017-03-18T09:04:34.539+00:00And is significantly lower than many of our compet...And is significantly lower than many of our competitors.Blue Eyeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16556174219724957585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-77930746751586897642017-03-18T09:04:01.575+00:002017-03-18T09:04:01.575+00:00The global workforce (i.e. working-age population)...The global workforce (i.e. working-age population) is at its peak and is set to decline.Blue Eyeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16556174219724957585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-12774634058065299472017-03-18T09:02:40.775+00:002017-03-18T09:02:40.775+00:00The national debt is set to peak next year as a pr...The national debt is set to peak next year as a proportion of GDP and in cash terms the year after.<br /><br />Blue Eyeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16556174219724957585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-35839498459093788372017-03-18T08:41:05.382+00:002017-03-18T08:41:05.382+00:00The national debt is increasing exponentially - as...The national debt is increasing exponentially - as is personal debt. <br /><br />That's where the truth lies. <br /><br />These workers are being subsidised, either directly or indirectly.<br /><br />The more abundant a commodity the cheaper it becomes, so a floor had to be put under employment in the form of the minimum wage (proof of wage compression) - those not on the minimum wage (self employed car washers) have access to welfare and healthcare regardless. <br /><br />They are not a cheap alternative to car wash machines. <br /><br />It is bottomlessly stupid to think that they can be. <br /> <br /><br />Electro-Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18073103431166273080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-60383430441671714542017-03-18T07:03:34.259+00:002017-03-18T07:03:34.259+00:00BTW aren't wages really about house prices? Pe...BTW aren't wages really about house prices? People have more than ever and generally aren't struggling to buy anything else. Teenagers are still buying cars and pimping them out. So it's really just about house prices, right?<br /><br />So did importing a couple million people worsen the UK house shortage? Obviously it did.<br /><br />But also the Eastern European workers that work for the least (truckers, farm workers, etc) can do so because they live together in slums and pay little to no rent. These are the guys in tracksuits speaking Polish that you see being hauled around in minibuses at 6am (vs the pretty girls in the coffee shops that the BBC seems to prefer showing). These guys demolish wages but probably don't actually affect house prices or rents at all.Knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-49262551982344052262017-03-18T06:44:33.822+00:002017-03-18T06:44:33.822+00:00Another issue is that you don't really need mu...Another issue is that you don't really need much money to entertain yourself these days. 15+ years ago if you didn't want to sit and stare at the crap on the TV you needed to spend money. It was either TV, a book, or spend money and go somewhere. Now there's the internet and a lot of other ways to pass the time.<br /><br />I also think this is the reason for the "snowflake generation". The government claims responsibility for falling teen pregnancies, teen drinking, etc but I think it's because they're not going outside. Also half of night clubs closed since 2005, millennials apparently having the least sex, it all adds up.Knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-54694065319043322852017-03-17T20:15:18.862+00:002017-03-17T20:15:18.862+00:00Its easy to see where it all went wrong. As with p...Its easy to see where it all went wrong. As with pretty much everything, it was during the 1997-2005 Blair/Brown years that it was decided to universally subsidise low paid employment via Tax Credits. Guess what you get more of when you subsidise it? Result - massive growth in low paid jobs mirrored to massive rise in welfare expenditure and a hollowing out of the tax base. Sobershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11407417389022146963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-557710653215096872017-03-17T20:02:26.933+00:002017-03-17T20:02:26.933+00:00I got my hair cut by a Kurdish chap...
Each to th...<i>I got my hair cut by a Kurdish chap...</i><br /><br />Each to their own :)Steven_Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029437876479574883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-37190857540873528242017-03-17T18:06:19.711+00:002017-03-17T18:06:19.711+00:00I agree with Nick, of course. I agree with Nick, of course. Blue Eyeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16556174219724957585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-82508259114180232922017-03-17T17:59:25.945+00:002017-03-17T17:59:25.945+00:00Automation. Are we talking about oxen or water whe...Automation. Are we talking about oxen or water wheels? The industrial revolution didn't really get going until the Corn Laws stopped the land hogging all the workers.<br /><br />It currently takes about 1% of our workforce to produce 50% of our food requirements. Not that long ago it was 99%. Between then and now unemployment has varied between about 10% and 5% of the workforce.<br /><br />It must be awful to be a Malthusian, because you are wrong the whole bloomin' time.Blue Eyeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16556174219724957585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-3626205324772278482017-03-17T17:55:55.957+00:002017-03-17T17:55:55.957+00:00To follow up on Merkel, if you read Andrew Hammel&...To follow up on Merkel, if you read Andrew Hammel's blog (expat law prof in Dusseldorf - liberal sort but not blind to what's in front of him), he points out that caring for 'refugees' cost 20 billion euros last year, that only about 5% of last year's migrants are employed, and that (as the leader of the free world would say) <i>"they're not sending their best"</i> - one example being the chap who axed a load of people at Dusseldorf station a couple of weeks ago. <br /><br />http://www.germanjoys.eu/2017/03/shipping-the-mentally-ill-to-germany-as-asylum-seekers.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-20320311159336118422017-03-17T17:54:12.523+00:002017-03-17T17:54:12.523+00:00To my mind a huge number of jobs today are already...To my mind a huge number of jobs today are already of very questionable value, have been around for a long time and don't show any sign of disappearing. As long as a population has a reasonable level of wealth / disposable income then the jobs of tomorrow will be created. If you remove or concentrate the wealth then you are in trouble. I see the hollowing out of the middle class as a far bigger risk to future job creation than robotics/automation. Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10793310730847650998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-18106275532185720552017-03-17T17:38:42.500+00:002017-03-17T17:38:42.500+00:00I keep hearing that automation is going to wipe ou...I keep hearing that automation is going to wipe out swathes of employment. Then I also keep hearing that Europe needs loads of immigrants to fill jobs*. Does not compute.<br /><br />Wildgoose - the car-wash is interesting - easy to automate, easier to hire 5 swarthy chaps with buckets. After all, an automated car wash needs capital. Plastic buckets are a quid each.<br /><br /><br /><br />(*some idiot on the Today programme argued that Merkel's open borders approach was because she needed workers - why did they keep the gates closed to Poles in 2005 then? Mutti opened the gates cos a) little refugee girl cried in front of her, and b) she's childless so has no lasting interest in Germany's future)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com