tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post3936412022440301552..comments2024-03-28T09:55:42.123+00:00Comments on Capitalists@Work: Some Authoritative Covid StuffCityUnslickerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15929544047783163175noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-77923632157118894732020-05-25T20:00:57.837+01:002020-05-25T20:00:57.837+01:00"How about ebola in africa about 18 months ag...<br />"How about ebola in africa about 18 months ago"<br /><br />Without wishing to confuse the issue with facts, according to Wikipedia the average risk of death for those infected with Ebola is 50%. The jury is still out on Covid 19 but the equivalent number is at most 1% and probably nearer 0.25% ie somewhat worse than most flu pandemics but significantly less than for the 1918 Spanish flu.<br />YDGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-42989749039278416142020-05-25T12:57:51.081+01:002020-05-25T12:57:51.081+01:00How about ebola in africa about 18 months agoHow about ebola in africa about 18 months agoandrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311993288675111834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-32241993034704763722020-05-25T10:58:47.773+01:002020-05-25T10:58:47.773+01:00Query from a simple soul.
Born in 1951, we have h...Query from a simple soul.<br /><br />Born in 1951, we have had a number such viruses sweep the world since then.<br /><br />Covid-19 is the only one I can recall which occasioned such extreme measures. <br /><br />Anyone? Jeremy Poyntonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-14272135391804506492020-05-25T08:40:17.910+01:002020-05-25T08:40:17.910+01:00https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11700570/freak-bank-...https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11700570/freak-bank-holiday-over-opinion/<br /><br />Nick - the comment linked couldn't possibly put it better for me. Whilst we're using 1984 as a blueprint in this crisis someone wiser is using The Art of War. <br /><br />Thud - appreciated. E-Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16657071992016670517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-26116822170037432062020-05-25T08:06:44.024+01:002020-05-25T08:06:44.024+01:00Kev, I understand the logic behind your 11:09. If...Kev, I understand the logic behind your 11:09. If I follow it all the way, one strategic conclusion of para 3 must surely be - hand it over to Starmer now<br /><br />the conclusion of para 2, unfortunately, is: whomever we hand it over to, we're f****d<br /><br />(incidentally, exactly who is buying up all that new UK government debt they are issuing so easily at negative interest rates ..?)Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-11308791567337981642020-05-24T21:50:36.010+01:002020-05-24T21:50:36.010+01:00Never let a crisis go to waste. Even if you have ...Never let a crisis go to waste. Even if you have to create one. Or the narrative of one.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-3074706947062277742020-05-24T21:26:50.164+01:002020-05-24T21:26:50.164+01:00EK, after all this time Kev it would be hard to ev...EK, after all this time Kev it would be hard to ever take offence.Thudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18320037763190473684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-62564841974064925502020-05-24T11:09:43.259+01:002020-05-24T11:09:43.259+01:00"They'll live longer, she said, because m..."They'll live longer, she said, because medics and pharma will continue keeping horribly unwell oldies alive for ever increasing amounts of time."<br /><br />Presuming we continue as an NHS with an over leveraged economy attached to it and are allowed to do so by emerging superpowers. <br /><br />This is the Goldilocks disease. Not too hot, not too cold and the promise of a possibly viable cure on an undetermined horizon to keep us nicely in economy destroying lockdown - and puts the Government at the mercy of public sector Unions who can say "If only you'd just waited another month."<br /><br />Did we elect a virologist to be Prime Minister and make decisions for us ? I don't recall it. E-Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16657071992016670517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-25567243051410681062020-05-24T11:01:58.074+01:002020-05-24T11:01:58.074+01:00That was meant in the nicest way to Thud, btw. I w...That was meant in the nicest way to Thud, btw. I was turning in too. Late one. Too many beers. E-Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16657071992016670517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-78471593465865867862020-05-24T08:51:26.028+01:002020-05-24T08:51:26.028+01:00fascinating that the level of infections for herd ...fascinating that the level of infections for herd immunity is ">>20%" - this is not inconsistent with new evidence that a level of 10% - 20% infections could give herd immunity in places such as London, provided the right people get infected.<br /><br />These estimates are a long way from the discredited Imperial mathematical model. Orthodox emidemiology suggests the HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) is a function of the R number - an ipidemic with an R of 2.3 - 2.9 would require 60% - 65% to be infected. Of course these are simple linear projections, which are now being refined by the new 'chaos' maths.<br /><br />Mathematicians and risk managers also have a role in formulating our national response. A simple risk matrix plotting degree of risk and scale of consequences may help us refine even further the safest way out of lockdown. Two lighthouse keepers in close confinement may each score high on risk of contacting the Wuhan virus from eachother, but the consequences to others will be very low. And so on. Medical professionals in aerosol generating environments are both at very high risk and the consequences of their infection are at the red end of the matrix. Perhaps therefore it's the medical professionals and carers that should be restricted from wider movement - accommodated for shifts of several months at a time inside sealed hospitals?<br /><br />The old models formulated solely by doctors and health professionals - actually the most dangerous transmitters of the disease - always avoids intruding on their own freedoms. A movement to an advanced risk-based model would not make this assumption. <br />Raedwaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11699610899843349594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-2776460113930743692020-05-24T08:27:23.117+01:002020-05-24T08:27:23.117+01:00Recorded? Almost certainly by the organisers but ...Recorded? Almost certainly by the organisers but not posted yet (and not by me either), I'll keep a lookoutNick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-19053455747564251042020-05-24T01:43:37.766+01:002020-05-24T01:43:37.766+01:00Get to bed, Thud.
You need your beauty sleep.
...Get to bed, Thud. <br /><br />You need your beauty sleep. <br /><br />night night !E-Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16657071992016670517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-67969151764530582722020-05-24T01:17:16.784+01:002020-05-24T01:17:16.784+01:00EK, the worst of the virus by year end, the econom...EK, the worst of the virus by year end, the economy well more resilient than many believe but a fuckin disaster all the same.Thudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18320037763190473684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-66184177629310506032020-05-24T01:14:16.665+01:002020-05-24T01:14:16.665+01:00"The idea of of a 'passive' herd immu..."The idea of of a 'passive' herd immunity strategy was utterly bonkers. In no part of Europe has more than 4% of the population had the virus, "<br /><br />So not as contagious as we were given to believe. E-Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16657071992016670517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-71086111646812980592020-05-24T01:08:49.119+01:002020-05-24T01:08:49.119+01:00Vaccine by Sept.
Highly unethical to inject peop...Vaccine by Sept. <br /><br />Highly unethical to inject people on a compulsory basis who are fit and young and low risk with a vaccine which has been rushed through. No one should be forced to have it. <br /><br />Isn't it enough that we've saddled them with crippling unemployment and debt for the next 50 years ?<br /><br />E-Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16657071992016670517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-73537588235024844212020-05-24T01:04:48.228+01:002020-05-24T01:04:48.228+01:00So all done by Christmas ?
Still too late to have...So all done by Christmas ?<br /><br />Still too late to have averted the most crushing economic depression to hit us in 300 years. <br /><br />The news I've heard from BBC doctors is next Summer at the earliest. <br /><br />As of herd immunity being madness... that's how mankind has always survived viruses. Effective virologists have only existed for 50 years or so. Viruses are what made us. <br /><br />The report I read said herd immunity was madness too. He said it was madness because "...even if you lock away all vulnerable people then you would have 70% of the population seriously ill, unable to work and the NHS overwhelmed."<br /><br />I would have loved to have countered thus:<br /><br />You're wrong. 70% don't get *seriously* ill because those that do have already been isolated - and they certainly don't all get ill at the same time as you've proposed. <br /><br />Jeesus !<br /><br />Virologists are meant to be advisers, not Prime Ministers. <br /><br />Let's just ship Boris out and put a virologist on the centre lectern - in fact get rid of the lectern either side. <br /><br />Even if it comes in September. Too late. The economy is cratered and there is no-one except Trump with the balls to hold China to account on this but he is #1 villain in this whole episode according to MSM. E-Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16657071992016670517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-73310843765304386192020-05-24T00:30:12.485+01:002020-05-24T00:30:12.485+01:00I believed since the beginning that this would be ...I believed since the beginning that this would be pretty much gone or under control by nov give or take.Thudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18320037763190473684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-37720672637370375592020-05-24T00:19:53.749+01:002020-05-24T00:19:53.749+01:00I don't suppose the lecture was recorded?I don't suppose the lecture was recorded?RShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01227790857378189912noreply@blogger.com