tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post4933959702900220501..comments2024-03-28T09:55:42.123+00:00Comments on Capitalists@Work: More Predictions for 2010CityUnslickerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15929544047783163175noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-27434834346972824322010-01-02T01:18:59.842+00:002010-01-02T01:18:59.842+00:00Cameron to win with an overall majority of about 2...Cameron to win with an overall majority of about 20. He does not have the courage or convictions to inflict the sort of cuts needed to control Brown's debt.<br /><br />Cameron will vacillate and the UK will lose its AAA status, but not default. I am extremely pessimistic about Cameron - he is not up to the job.<br /><br />Borrowing costs will rise, coinciding with a return of CPI inflation well above the 4% mark during 2010 (RPI 1% less).<br /><br />The pound will fall but not as much as people expect both because of the actual interest rises (the BoE rate will be irrelevant), and because the dollar and euro will falter.<br /><br />Cameron's renegotiation with the EU will fail. So we will be lumbered with continuing rule from the EU at crippling cost.<br /><br />In real terms after inflation the UK economy will contract in 2010 again, even if 2009Q4 is just up.<br /><br />FTSE up 10% to about 6000; property down about 5%; gold up to $1500/oz; oil just over $100/barrel.Budgienoreply@blogger.com