tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post5693100282011847493..comments2024-03-28T09:55:42.123+00:00Comments on Capitalists@Work: The 'new normal' economy and the unknowable futureCityUnslickerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15929544047783163175noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-48985827928136543232020-10-02T12:57:30.902+01:002020-10-02T12:57:30.902+01:00Bastards!
Thanks, PtB - hadn't spotted that o...Bastards!<br /><br />Thanks, PtB - hadn't spotted that one. Wonder how long it'll be before their not-for-profit clients fess up to their own members / subscribers etc ..?Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-13232148272637940212020-10-02T01:07:54.165+01:002020-10-02T01:07:54.165+01:00Harking back to an earlier post... Blackbaud hack ...Harking back to an earlier post... Blackbaud hack worse than first admitted. Who knew eh?!<br />https://www.computing.co.uk/news/4021003/blackbaud-ransomware-hackers-access-unencrypted-banking-login-credentialsPushingTheBoundarieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13103831156774866049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-83416575924794655792020-10-01T13:19:36.641+01:002020-10-01T13:19:36.641+01:00[I am not an economist]
I think the recent past an...[I am not an economist]<br />I think the recent past and possible future can be explained by some key changes over the last hundred years or so.<br />- civilization seems to have persisted for a 'long time'<br />- people seem to believe in 'momentum'<br />- standards of living are 'high'<br />I will not specify what 'long time', 'momentum' and 'high' are<br />but to cherry-pick a few examples, <br /><br />Interest rates were high because of risk - as things have not gone wrong for some years and so the expectation is that this will remain so, the risk premium has droppped. There is a cost and a risk to holding cash and so interest rates may indeed turn negative.<br /><br />I do not think interest rates will rise until there is a real risk of loss.<br /><br />Standards of living are high - a lot of the economy is not devoted to feeding people and keeping them warm. This means that there is a lot of economic activity that can stop and normal life will not 'cease'.<br /><br />So large segments of the economy may well 'stop' for a while and life will carry on - only ~half of the uk went to the pub in '18 (although culturally impoverished)<br /><br />House prices remain 'high' because people are willing to lend money at low rates and there has not been a bug fall in prices for about 30 years and the expectation is that that will remain the case.<br /><br />So long story short, I expect things to carry on like this <br />...until they do not.<br /><br />The catalyst is the interesting thing. IMO (and writing it down here makes it almost certainly wrong) there will be a fall in the number of jobs in large cities (london) that are expensive to live in.<br />People living in the commuter areas will realize they can live better somewhere else. Enough will move to depress rents and so house prices. This will cause financial institutions to re-assess risk.<br /><br />Interest rates rise.<br /><br /><br />andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311993288675111834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-6350090637823271902020-10-01T10:51:31.501+01:002020-10-01T10:51:31.501+01:00@Doom Goblin
I voted *for* Brexit, and whilst a N...@Doom Goblin<br /><br />I voted *for* Brexit, and whilst a No Deal one would be manageable by a competent government, we ain't got one, so there'll be consequences.<br /><br />Trump is more nuanced. He's done some good, notably in the ME and tackling China, but by and large he's every bit as guilty of identity politics as the Democrats, he's just picked one larger than they have, and the consequences will leave the US in a place of great fragility.<br /><br />And no, China in and of itself isn't bad, neither are the Chinese people, the CCP on the other hand? Very bad.<br /><br />And I think that's more than enough engaging with that kind of post.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-14224707584836451782020-10-01T08:54:44.732+01:002020-10-01T08:54:44.732+01:00Anon is fighting 1936
Brexit bad
Trump bad
China...Anon is fighting 1936 <br /><br />Brexit bad<br />Trump bad<br />China bad<br />We must embrace the League of Nations as the only way to survive.<br /><br />Poor Anon. <br />Can’t see that covid is the new 1940.<br /> The Blitzkrieg was new. Fast and deadly. And changed the world forever. #FPBE Doom Goblinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-19061802575244072162020-09-30T17:01:21.818+01:002020-09-30T17:01:21.818+01:00"huge unemployment but the highest ever savin..."huge unemployment but the highest ever savings rate since records began "<br /><br />People who expect to be unemployed soon are trying to pay off their debts and save a bit of money for food and clothes.<br /><br />Don CoxDon Coxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06339420519741253080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-55621501829113032012020-09-30T16:23:46.825+01:002020-09-30T16:23:46.825+01:00I find this idiosyncratic chap is often interestin...I find this idiosyncratic chap is often interesting. Here he predicts the ruin of the great cities such as NYC.<br /><br />https://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept20/urban-exodus9-20.htmldeariemenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-24635947849304222382020-09-30T14:52:11.158+01:002020-09-30T14:52:11.158+01:00The house price rises are just a temporary shuffle...The house price rises are just a temporary shuffle during the stamp duty cuts - people deciding that London has gone to rat shit and escaping to the country (falls in the capital.)<br /><br />Savings increases temporary just before the WFH shakeout happens and people find that either their jobs are gone or their savings in commuting are replaced by costs in taxation. <br /><br />Let's see how it all looks at the end of furlough and after the first emergency budget. <br /><br />Your pubs, theatres, restaurants, cafe's and shops are all virtually gone and their local council is about to go bankrupt. <br /><br />You can't buy a Cockapoo for under £2500 and a set of dumbbell weights now cost a weeks wages for many. <br /><br />Does anyone seriously think they're richer ?E-Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16657071992016670517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-63463930925280526802020-09-30T13:23:47.735+01:002020-09-30T13:23:47.735+01:00@ iOpener
Yep, saving is bad - it's akin to s...@ iOpener<br /><br />Yep, saving is bad - it's akin to stealing from the economy (and therefore the government coffers). We should all just spend every penny we have and work till we drop dead.<br /><br />Or perhaps you think the government can use the magic money tree to bail out everyone who can't look after themselves?Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08141297358269863170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-34864104901247211032020-09-30T13:21:11.406+01:002020-09-30T13:21:11.406+01:00Great, so all the things that make up a successful...Great, so all the things that make up a successful economy and society - hard work, deferred consumption, long term planning for the future are punished so that the profligate, the criminal and the lazy can maintain themselves in the style that they're used to?<br /><br />BlokeInBrumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-38171221598941212452020-09-30T13:01:00.406+01:002020-09-30T13:01:00.406+01:00Governments are stealing cash by inflating the cur...Governments are stealing cash by inflating the currency. Those 5% property price rises are inflation in action.<br /><br />I have some sympathy for the government. The theft is so easy and "savers" who take no risks have had it far too good for too long. Money stuck in a bank with full deposit government guarantee should get the same rate of return as money stuck in a mattress - something negative.iOpenerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00059950887197561123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-79405651695681067132020-09-30T12:26:18.106+01:002020-09-30T12:26:18.106+01:00Governments in general seem intent on supporting a...Governments in general seem intent on supporting asset prices, decision making seems to flow from that.<br /><br />I also don't think we're done with Black Swan events, the US election threatens to be one as the ManChild prepares to lose. Trumps claims has set the stage for either side to claim electoral shenanigans, especially as both parties have a history of it.<br /><br />There would be some irony in a Trump win based on postal ballots, only for Biden to call foul based on Trump's very own claims. Cue tweets asking about petards.<br /><br />And China... Too many potential points for something not to kick off, maybe a few small skirmishes between various nations in isolation, maybe something bigger. Hopefully not very big.<br /><br />No Deal Brexit is also on the horizon, and I can't currently see Boris and Cummings at the top table next summer. The current situation allows for a lot of forgiving of screw ups, but the last month or two looks to have found the goodwill fund somewhat sparse.<br /><br />The global economy needs something of a reset button too, its kept going after the financial crash, but how much of that has been a Chinese illusion we've all bought into?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-15060423803856055972020-09-30T12:07:41.179+01:002020-09-30T12:07:41.179+01:00Some guesses:
More diagnoses of people unlikely t...Some guesses: <br />More diagnoses of people unlikely to show symptoms or succumb, because more tests;<br />First wave saw off the weak;<br />Better treatments.<br /><br />I don't think anyone truly understands macro ecnomics ...Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-47033665541671110592020-09-30T11:35:30.351+01:002020-09-30T11:35:30.351+01:00One of the only good things about the UK economy h...One of the only good things about the UK economy having a huge "selling coffee and houses to each other" sector is that Rishi can replace wages without any inflationary effect. OK, we have fewer meals out and drink less coffee, but they still can pay the bills.<br /><br />Can anyone answer - why are so few people dying compared with say April? Is it just the weather? Because April IIRC was glorious sunshine most of the month. What's the difference? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-66833006602396893602020-09-30T10:15:01.689+01:002020-09-30T10:15:01.689+01:00Chris Fildes used to say that because economic cri...Chris Fildes used to say that because economic crises came around on a generational basis, & each crisis was treated as a unique entity (those involved/responsible for one crisis would be retired before the next one came along).<br /><br />It seems we're going to break that trend...david morrisnoreply@blogger.com