tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post5863391218603154046..comments2024-03-28T09:55:42.123+00:00Comments on Capitalists@Work: Self Sufficiency RevisitedCityUnslickerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15929544047783163175noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-39465568713842483802021-10-02T08:37:48.506+01:002021-10-02T08:37:48.506+01:00PS
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/01/...PS<br /><br />https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/01/china-orders-energy-firms-to-secure-winter-fuel-supplies-at-all-costs<br /><br />(you don't need to read it, the embedded headline speaks for itself)Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-4831336493421580792021-10-02T08:17:13.188+01:002021-10-02T08:17:13.188+01:00dearieme has the truth of it, anon, in the most su...<b>dearieme</b> has the truth of it, anon, in the most succinct way possible<br /><br />Demand (for most commodities) - surging, esp in the far east, due to post-covid bounce plus big emphasis on infrastructure projects<br /><br />(which, though in many cases nominally 'green', are steel-&-concrete intensive. And these days, as often noted here, even road repairs have been classified 'green' ...)<br /><br />Supply - impacted adversely, at least for the near-term, by several factors, e.g.: <br /><br />- covid-induced production hiatus (notably US shale oil & shale gas: very price-sensitive and hence wound down during the covid price collapse)<br /><br />- Putin holding Europe to ransom so as to get approval for Nord Stream 2 (he's doubled down just this week, though it's fair to say gas storage levels in Russia itself are low. But in earlier times he'd have sacrificed Russian consumers' demand in favour of hard currency exports) <br /><br />- regional short-term factors like, no wind in Europe for 3 weeks<br /><br />- Germany having decided an ultra-rapid phase-out of coal & lignite (again, they've doubled down on this in the last couple of weeks)<br /><br />HOWEVER the phrase P*****t S***m is banned around hereNick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-1073149403897389482021-10-01T22:07:22.713+01:002021-10-01T22:07:22.713+01:00"anyone have a decent theory why ?"
Sup..."anyone have a decent theory why ?"<br /><br />Supply and demand, innit?deariemenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-16699010569919101762021-10-01T21:19:30.128+01:002021-10-01T21:19:30.128+01:00and its not like its only gas.
https://www.barchar...and its not like its only gas.<br />https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQV21/interactive-chart thats Newcastle in Australia. <br />energy just got very expensive everywhere. anyone have a decent theory why ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-26967704415741061332021-10-01T10:52:29.518+01:002021-10-01T10:52:29.518+01:00Its ever the same, no-one wants to pay the insuran...Its ever the same, no-one wants to pay the insurance premium for self sufficiency when times are good, but screams 'Why didn't they do something???' when the balloon goes up. And of course there's no commercial incentive to provide it free in the hope of profiting during the shortages, as sure as eggs is eggs the State would step in and commandeer supplies and set prices etc, and prevent you from making any profits to offset against the years of costs. Taxes on 'super-profits' have already been waved around in this crisis, so why would any commercial entity bother? <br /><br />So as Paul Weller sang, the public gets what the public wants, and so thats what we have, a system thats pared to the bone all the time and can't cope when the SHTF. Sobershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11407417389022146963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-86678098245495826562021-10-01T08:14:22.221+01:002021-10-01T08:14:22.221+01:00Known unknowns and unknown unknowns. As you say, ...Known unknowns and unknown unknowns. As you say, no shortage of gas molecules but a superstorm could send a few tankers to the bottom or a decent fire at a gas terminal cause disruption. One can hedge and play integration games all day but when there is no physical a big storage hole looks a nice idea.<br /><br />Back in the day an IT manager got a generator installed on the roof of his office and a load of modems plus some mylar film. His office was on Bishopsgate. WFH was very profitable in the following months. No one moaned about the cost after that.jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00470816959796395467noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-86824117466587814762021-10-01T07:00:26.765+01:002021-10-01T07:00:26.765+01:00Great stuff. Looking forward to reading more as th...Great stuff. Looking forward to reading more as the situation eats companies and careers this winter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-42177840917182622272021-09-30T17:24:28.165+01:002021-09-30T17:24:28.165+01:00Oh yes, Timbo, that's broadly how storage is u...Oh yes, Timbo, that's broadly how storage is utilised commercially! It can be even better than that: you could buy low today (on the spot market - and immediately store the physical gas) and SELL HIGH TODAY AS WELL - in the forward market. (If those forward prices are high enough to cover costs.) Arbitrage!<br /><br />Things are made a bit more complicated if <br /><br />(a) it isn't so easy to be sure what's a 'low' price and what's a 'high' price. That may be quite obvious in extreme conditions like today, but through the long period of very low volatility it wasn't always<br />(b) you can only act on 1/180th of the inventory on any one day<br />(c) the price might be high today, but maybe it'll be even higher tomorrow ...<br /><br />etc etc - many moving parts if you want to optimise your opportunities. The greater the volatility, the greater the potential for profits - but the more difficult the assessments, too. Still, if life was easy ... Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-30504327900494163052021-09-30T17:10:55.505+01:002021-09-30T17:10:55.505+01:00A stoopid question re your volatility Nick:
Why w...A stoopid question re your volatility Nick:<br /><br />Why would you not fill your storage when the price is low and empty it when the price is high especially if it is enormous? <br />You could say keep it say half full at a minimum to satisfy the requirement for backup supply, again if it is enormous!<br />Timbo614https://www.blogger.com/profile/14671168026195402267noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-22940036846251200292021-09-30T16:43:07.576+01:002021-09-30T16:43:07.576+01:00Tangentially relevant: I've just checked the l...Tangentially relevant: I've just checked the local rag's website. No mention whatever of a problem with supplies of motor fuels. No list of filling stations open or closed. Not a sausage. <br /><br />Yesterday we drove past a closed filling station. When we passed that way again forty minutes later it was open but with hardly a vehicle in it.<br /><br />Is the panic over already?<br /><br />Are there conspiracy theorists saying it was all a beat-up to distract attention from the Labour Conference?deariemenoreply@blogger.com