tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post7704926093071551782..comments2024-03-28T22:45:51.014+00:00Comments on Capitalists@Work: Econometric Forecasting: Astrology With NumbersCityUnslickerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15929544047783163175noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-11310916315420388502010-08-12T19:03:34.095+01:002010-08-12T19:03:34.095+01:00But 'econometric' forecasting that claims ...But 'econometric' forecasting that claims a mathematical basis, is a bad, expensive joke.<br /><br />Especially when it never was a level playing field anyway.James Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14525082702330365464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-40630109303444745452010-08-12T14:37:18.844+01:002010-08-12T14:37:18.844+01:00Dex i could be wrong but i seem to recall BoE spre...<b>Dex</b> i could be wrong but i seem to recall BoE spreadsheets somewhere on their website<br /><br />maybe it was historical data rather than f'casts<br /><br /><i>oil companies are pretty good at predicting prices</i><br /><br />although I started with an example of a good oil co. call, in general <b>Mark</b> they are rubbish at it<br /><br />but it doesn't matter as much as you maybe think:<br /><br />- some of them hedge;<br />- the cost-of-production of most oil is far less than the market price;<br />- many oil-patch tax regimes dilute the impact of price-risk, often quite significantly;<br />- some of them are vertically integrated, with 'natural hedges' (I use the term very loosely);<br />- some can pass through commodity costs very easily;<br />- some are pig-ignorant national oil co's whose exposure to the rigours of market impact is minimal ...<br /><br />etcNick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-24697217153046663272010-08-12T14:12:46.246+01:002010-08-12T14:12:46.246+01:00Nick
i thought the same thing when looking at wha...Nick <br />i thought the same thing when looking at what i should do about remortaging a little while ago. I was chatting to the economist at work and she was saying this and that about what interest rates are going to do etc. I went back to my desk and pulled the BOE's quaterly reports and copied all their forecasts for the last 4-5 years or so to see how good they had been at predicting what was going to happen. Turns out i don't have much confidence in their predictive skills, even when they make the line go really fuzzy with a healthy 2-30 +/-. So i thought why take the risk on soemthing i can't afford if they get it horrendously wrong and interest rates go through the rough so opted for a fixed 5 year. <br /><br />it would be nice though if the BOE published their forecast in an excel docuemnt or soemthing as then you could plot the multiple forecasts on top of each other and see what happened.dexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02263280436066057924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-49306643988559674002010-08-12T13:14:07.904+01:002010-08-12T13:14:07.904+01:00It strikes me that the oil companies are pretty go...It strikes me that the oil companies are pretty good at predicting prices (plus planning for all sorts of political events, wars, catastrophes, tax changes, greenie nonsense etc etc), or else they'd all be bankrupt. <br /><br />As to economic forecasting, all you need to look at is house prices. If they go up faster than wages = credit bubble; credits bubbles always burst and after that there is always a recession. The bigger the bubble the longer the recession.Mark Wadsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-39214956513910609772010-08-12T09:24:52.836+01:002010-08-12T09:24:52.836+01:00Gordon Brown was consulting the stars...
I remembe...Gordon Brown was consulting the stars...<br />I remember him phoning them.<br /><br />Jedward<br />Susan Boyle<br />Coldplay<br />Piers Morgan <br />Cheryl ColeBill Quango MPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14861116614665461655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-34715069259676651372010-08-12T09:07:11.876+01:002010-08-12T09:07:11.876+01:00I have looked up Spencer, Mr Needham, and have con...I have looked up Spencer, <b>Mr Needham</b>, and have concluded (in a roundabout way) that Gordon Brown was consulting the stars, via his sponsor JK Rowling ...Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-20794237334611008322010-08-12T08:06:47.863+01:002010-08-12T08:06:47.863+01:00budgie - sign me up for two, the cheque is in the ...<b>budgie</b> - sign me up for two, the cheque is in the post<br /><br />run that post-code by me again ...<br /><br /><br /><b>Andrew</b> - that's an excellent point & I agree 100%: back your own expert judgment by all means, but speculating on someone else's market view, when you don't have one of your own, really is some kind of madness<br /><br />how many times do you hear businessmen say: <i>we need a good forecast</i> - ?<br /><br />chum, a forecast is some worthless ink on an expensive piece of paper: if you need a <i>hedge</i>, go and buy one. It'll cost more than the forecast, but hey, it <i>actually has some value !</i>Nick Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670594203660051701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-81382611939047657272010-08-11T23:49:46.633+01:002010-08-11T23:49:46.633+01:00It's speculation, pure and simple.
If you are...<i> It's speculation, pure and simple.</i><br /><br />If you are using someone else's prediction without understanding how they worked it out, I call it gambling.<br /><br />If you worked out your own prediction, I wish you luck.Andrew Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17537364534559092034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-20499349949748902022010-08-11T23:44:08.864+01:002010-08-11T23:44:08.864+01:00Ever wanted to live the celebrity lifestyle? Buy t...Ever wanted to live the celebrity lifestyle? Buy that stunning villa in the Caribbean? Now you can live the dream!!<br /><br />Let me tell you a secret: I have selected you, Mr (insert name), to be the lucky recipient of my tried and tested, no-fail computer program which will infallibly forecast all the future events of your life. Unlock your potential and make yourself rich! All I ask is a deposit of only £2999.<br /><br />Buy the racehorse winners forecasting program for an additional £1999 and go to the dogs for free. Yes, for a trifling £5999 you can be the winners winner with all 3 programs!!!! What a deal!!<br /><br />Please send your deposit to:<br />Under Bird Cage<br />The Railway Arches<br />East Cheam<br />SW1 NDL3<br />(Closed due to unforeseen circumstances)Budgienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-85958498970674226152010-08-11T17:31:33.529+01:002010-08-11T17:31:33.529+01:00Statistics especially the Government stats can be ...Statistics especially the Government stats can be summed up by lies,damn lies and what the government puts out, and what large companies put out, all it is is slanted spin. No matter what the company if a person becomes in charge who is totally reckless with a cash rich, very profitable company that company will go down I can think of 2 companies at the top of the FT100 that were bought down to nothing no doubt other readers of this column can think of others.John Thomasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-19520737695808262072010-08-11T15:40:39.880+01:002010-08-11T15:40:39.880+01:00Mrs Q's sister works for a Shaman.Mrs Q's sister works for a Shaman.Bill Quango MPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14861116614665461655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-19201446516689928032010-08-11T14:59:36.097+01:002010-08-11T14:59:36.097+01:00Neil Spencer wrote a very interesting collection o...<a href="http://www.neilspencer.co.uk" rel="nofollow">Neil Spencer</a> wrote a very interesting collection of essays on Astrology (you can find it on amazon for anout 10p) with a chapter about financial astrology.<br /><br />Can't remember the name, but he reckoned the most successful trader of all time was an astrologer.<br /><br />Maybe there's a place at the BOE for Neil.Marchamont Needhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06740260028865944591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-45824594893285950902010-08-11T14:53:38.709+01:002010-08-11T14:53:38.709+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Marchamont Needhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06740260028865944591noreply@blogger.com