tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post7766263008462458529..comments2024-03-28T22:45:51.014+00:00Comments on Capitalists@Work: The beast that is BorisCityUnslickerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15929544047783163175noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-54656182339074990582022-07-12T14:36:37.909+01:002022-07-12T14:36:37.909+01:00@ andrew
Three words (sort of) - Singapore-on-Tha...@ andrew<br /><br />Three words (sort of) - Singapore-on-Thames<br /><br />Slash regulations/red tape, bonfire of the QUANGOs, reduce tax burden under 30% of GDP, remove trade tariffs, a new National Health System based on the model in Europe/Ireland, put a halt to unskilled immigration suppressing wages.<br /><br />I'll give you 1000-1 odds on that allowing the UK to beat the EU (assuming we're behind already).Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08141297358269863170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-11798461352245923932022-07-12T13:38:59.544+01:002022-07-12T13:38:59.544+01:00
The BoE did/does its best to be as accurate as po...<br />The BoE did/does its best to be as accurate as possible (yes, they frequently fail), or there are some politically motivated people who were/are constructing numbers to fit their narrative.<br /><br />Given that, we all knew the most probable outcome or chose to deliberately ignore the knowledge because the answer was not welcome.<br /><br />There is no way of avoiding the fact it is a relative loss.<br /><br />It helps my narrative that the BoE looks to be right (so far).<br /><br />Rather than trying ignore the facts I was hoping someone could explain what the UK govt should do to make the UK catch up / overtake the EU.<br />Doing nothing will just mean we get even further behind.<br /><br /><br />andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311993288675111834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-29772942264445545172022-07-12T13:17:49.000+01:002022-07-12T13:17:49.000+01:00@ andrew
You had no idea (at 5-1 or 2-1) whether ...@ andrew<br /><br />You had no idea (at 5-1 or 2-1) whether the bet in question would pay out until after the event. Therefore, your only actual loss that might be incurred was the £10 wager you placed.<br /><br />The predictions of doom & gloom of Brexit had no more science than the bookies odds. They didn't take into account the massive pandemic costs foisted upon the economy by the government nor the rampant inflation we are experiencing cause by the BoE.<br /><br />The latter being something most lay people could see coming, due to money presses running full tilt for the last 15 years, whereas it came as a surprise to the same sage characters in the Treasury/BoE who forecast the Brexit household loss.<br />Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08141297358269863170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-42691411782461171462022-07-11T19:15:09.823+01:002022-07-11T19:15:09.823+01:00If you had the full and informed choice and delibe...If you had the full and informed choice and deliberately chose 2-1 instead of 5-1 and bet 10 then yes you are 30 worse off.<br /><br />What I was waiting for dm to say was that the relative failure of the uk compared to europe could be for reasons other than brexit.<br />Being led by a lying toad like johnson drives people to mistrust the whole of the govt.<br />I would not underestimate the real cost of having someone like him in power.<br />Or it could be really bad luck (doubtful)<br />Or something else I have not thought of<br /><br /><br /><br />andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311993288675111834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-39732502486498224082022-07-11T18:39:02.554+01:002022-07-11T18:39:02.554+01:00@ andrew
It wasn't a loss, but rather a reduc...@ andrew<br /><br />It wasn't a loss, but rather a reduction in growth, such that after 15 years might mean people had £5,200 less than otherwise.<br /><br />If I go to the bookies and put a £10 bet at 2-1 where earlier I might have got 5-1, does that mean I've lost £30?Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08141297358269863170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-60017095522967565292022-07-11T16:27:15.955+01:002022-07-11T16:27:15.955+01:00"comparing GDP per capita is worthless"
..."comparing GDP per capita is worthless"<br />I suppose you could tour round Europe and make a number up based on how you feel, then do the same for the UK. <br />Or you could look up what people who get paid to measure these things think the answer is.<br />None of the people collecting these numbers care about brexit, and indeed before 2016 even know about it.<br />It is very unlikely that they decided to measure the values differently pre and post 16.<br />It is clear we performed in line with the EU for ~7 years pre 16 and since then have under-performed by 6-7% cumulative since then (so far). <br />This ignores currency conversion changes which do not benefit the UK's relative performance.<br /><br />That decline is pretty close to the central treasury estimate of the impact of a hard (WTO) brexit that was published in the referendum.<br />https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-long-term-economic-impact-of-eu-membership-and-the-alternatives<br />(Page 8)<br />They estimated a 5,200 (8%) annual loss per household after 15 years <br /><br />We are at 6-7% after 7 years.<br />That bunch of counts did get it wrong - so far it looks like they underestimated the loss.<br /><br /><br /><br />andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311993288675111834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-60514791548311461982022-07-11T16:17:33.346+01:002022-07-11T16:17:33.346+01:00Mr Sachs is one of the economists who helped destr...Mr Sachs is one of the economists who helped destroy Russia in the 1990s, but was obviously considered competent enough to chair the inqiuiry. This is the co-author <br /><br />Neil L. Harrison <br />Department of Anesthesiology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032<br />Department of Molecular Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-33798397063304711112022-07-11T16:14:02.149+01:002022-07-11T16:14:02.149+01:00"I chaired the commission for the Lancet for ...<i>"I chaired the commission for the Lancet for 2 years on Covid. I'm pretty convinced it came out of a US lab of biotechnology, not out of nature... We don't know for sure but there is enough evidence. [However] it's not being investigated, not in the US, not anywhere."</i><br /><br />https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1543259218995687424Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-60279852354420678232022-07-11T16:07:54.345+01:002022-07-11T16:07:54.345+01:00Off topic but relevant to everything... the chairm...Off topic but relevant to everything... the chairman of the Lancet's covid commission, Jeffrey Sachs<br /><br />https://covid19commission.org/jeffrey-sachs<br /><br />has published an article<br /><br />https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2202769119<br /><br />stating that the covid virus could be man-made<br /><br /><i>US research funding agencies, including NIH, USAID, DARPA, DTRA, and the Department of Homeland Security, could shed considerable light on the experiments undertaken by the US-funded research team and on the possible relationship, if any, between those experiments and the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. We do not assert that laboratory manipulation was involved in the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, although it is apparent that it could have been. However, we do assert that there has been no independent and transparent scientific scrutiny to date of the full scope of the US-based evidence.</i><br /><br /> and calling for an investigation into a possible American origin<br /><br /><i>much could be learned by investigating US-supported and US-based work that was underway in collaboration with Wuhan-based institutions, including the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), China. It is still not clear whether the IC investigated these US-supported and US-based activities. If it did, it has yet to make any of its findings available to the US scientific community for independent and transparent analysis and assessment. If, on the other hand, the IC did not investigate these US-supported and US-based activities, then it has fallen far short of conducting a comprehensive investigation.</i><br /><br />Much of the work carried out in Wuhan was actually funded by the US.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-8371935478435986902022-07-11T12:47:21.864+01:002022-07-11T12:47:21.864+01:00"comparing GDP per capita": worthless re..."comparing GDP per capita": worthless really. It may be different on the Continent but I doubt whether our govt knows our population to better than 10% accuracy. Plus, of course, different countries (e.g. us) define GDP differently to others (e.g. Them).<br /><br />Anyway the point is that Operation Fear said we'd have an economic collapse starting the day after the referendum if "Leave" won, that our children's hair would fall out, our wives' breasts would sag, and our todgers would shrink.<br /><br /><br />Didn't turn out anything remotely like that, did it? What do we conclude? That they were cretinous, ignorant, or lying counts? Or all three.deariemenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-48721421836692110572022-07-11T11:46:18.473+01:002022-07-11T11:46:18.473+01:00More potential evidence that Tory candidates only ...More potential evidence that Tory candidates only get selected if they have skeletons...<br /><br /><i>A Conservative MP was wearing a “black leather mini-skirt” and “high heels” when he was involved in a late-night car crash, a court has heard. Jamie Wallis, who has represented Bridgend since 2019, is on trial accused of failing to stop, failing to report a road traffic collision, driving without due care and attention and leaving a vehicle in a dangerous position. Wallis denies the charges.</i> <br /><br />https://www.keighleynews.co.uk/news/20270166.tory-mp-wearing-leather-mini-skirt-high-heels-road-crash-court-told/<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-65468390264379832342022-07-11T09:17:47.654+01:002022-07-11T09:17:47.654+01:00These Leader pitches as something to behold.
Who ...These Leader pitches as something to behold.<br /><br />Who would have thought in reading them, Boris was the only sane one in the government.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-53958349217018497742022-07-11T06:55:26.944+01:002022-07-11T06:55:26.944+01:00Since those that are standing (apart from Hunt) ar...Since those that are standing (apart from Hunt) are simply continuity-Boris, there is not going to be much change in political direction. Given the absolute divorce from reality shown during Boris's reign, can't see the successor lasting as they really don't have an answer to the UK's underlying issues of skewed demographics, low productivity and commercialising innovation.<br /><br />But a point to consider, given the track record of the Party's voters, is whether Boris will make a comeback next time? And like Trump does he hope to have the chance of a comeback?Diogenesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-87461225465529447612022-07-11T00:17:15.147+01:002022-07-11T00:17:15.147+01:00Lynn Truss is standing. I'm assuming the Capit...Lynn Truss is standing. I'm assuming the Capitalists will be backing her in order to Stand Up To Putin ;-)<br /><br />If she gets in, potassium iodides all round! (The NHS apparently has stocks, but if covid preparations are any guide they'll all have gone off during a change of warehousing provider)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-82504011123256339292022-07-10T23:52:28.575+01:002022-07-10T23:52:28.575+01:00I make no claim to be a statistician.
Looking at ...I make no claim to be a statistician.<br /><br />Looking at the exchange rates in 2015, most of the time you would have got over 1.35<br />https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-EUR-spot-exchange-rates-history-2015.html<br /><br />Looking at exchange rates in 2021, most of the time you would have got under 1.18<br />https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-EUR-spot-exchange-rates-history-2021.html <br /><br />but I do claim those values in those years to be reasonably representative, and have provided links to the source of my information.andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311993288675111834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-47527158653141410072022-07-10T18:12:14.993+01:002022-07-10T18:12:14.993+01:00For the last 10 years GBP/EUR has mostly been arou...For the last 10 years GBP/EUR has mostly been around 1.10 to 1.20. Andrew is probably not a reliable statistician <br />Graemehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11007306140530173428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-32447227511011592782022-07-10T17:32:49.192+01:002022-07-10T17:32:49.192+01:00The guy puts the entire country under house arrest...The guy puts the entire country under house arrest for the better part of a year and gets attacked for being too libertarian, but resigns because of a couple of people getting pinched at the Carlton Club.<br /><br />What a vaudeville clown-world freak show.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-81700097483495285912022-07-10T16:57:20.727+01:002022-07-10T16:57:20.727+01:00Jacques Baud in 2020 he went on Russian state TV ...Jacques Baud in 2020 he went on Russian state TV to say there is “no history of poisoning by the Russian secret services”, that the Skripals simply had a bad case of “food poisoning” and that Alexei Navalny was poisoned not by the state but by some “mafia” people around him.<br /><br />There are other examples of the Pro-Kremlin colonel’s misrepresentation in the article.<br />https://dailysceptic.org/archive/how-accurate-is-jacques-bauds-analysis-of-the-war-in-ukraine/<br /><br />He is about as credible as George Galloway. It’s not hard to find people who want to believe Putin and condemn the west. <br />Jeremy Corbyn, for one.Bill Quango MPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14861116614665461655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-19396784168034057392022-07-10T15:25:10.791+01:002022-07-10T15:25:10.791+01:00Andrew: French Wikipedia says (in translation) &q...Andrew: French Wikipedia says (in translation) "Jacques Baud, born April 1, 1955, is a former colonel of the Swiss army, strategic analyst, specialist in intelligence and terrorism. However, he is the subject of criticism for having relayed several conspiracy theories." so maybe. That said, he did have a ringside seat in the events leading up to the war, looking into proliferation of small arms, from NATO HQ. (Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they're not out to get you, etc.)DJKnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-1494434410639774962022-07-10T15:22:30.087+01:002022-07-10T15:22:30.087+01:00dearieme said...
But since the Brexit referendum ...dearieme said...<br /><br />But since the Brexit referendum our GDP growth has equalled or exceeded that of the big countries in the EU.<br /><br /><br />You may be right if you pich the right country but comparing GDP per capita in EU and UK<br />https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?end=2021&locations=EU-GB&start=2008&view=chart<br /><br />Sitting down with a calculator<br />2008-2014<br />UK 0.990*0.950*1.013*1.007*1.008*1.012*1.022 = 1.000<br />EU 1.003*0.954*1.021*1.020*0.991*0.997*1.013 = 0.997<br />1.000 - 0.997 = +0.003 <br />2015-21<br />UK 1.018*1.015*1.014*1.010*1.011*0.904*1.070 = 1.034<br />EU 1.021*1.018*1.027*1.019*1.018*0.940*1.055 = 1.098<br />1.034 - 1.098 = -6.400<br /><br />so an individual's earnings on average is underperforming cf the EU by about 6-7% since brexit (unless my calculator is wrong or the world bank is wrong)<br /><br />That is in local currency terms. in 2015 GBP:EUR was around 1.35 and is now around 1.18.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311993288675111834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-56249956469700535032022-07-10T14:42:31.051+01:002022-07-10T14:42:31.051+01:00
Is this the same Jacques Braud who said on Russia...<br />Is this the same Jacques Braud who said on Russian state TV in 2020<br />there is “no history of poisoning by the Russian secret services”, that the Skripals simply had a bad case of “food poisoning” and that Alexei Navalny was poisoned not by the state but by some “mafia” people around him<br /><br />In which case not so sure about neutral andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311993288675111834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-84375708383702400232022-07-10T14:16:05.466+01:002022-07-10T14:16:05.466+01:00And given that the UK have attacked Serbia, Iraq, ...And given that the UK have attacked Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria in the last 30 years, none of whom have attacked us, maybe we should be in the dock, not Russia. What did the US do when Cuba hosted Soviet missiles?<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis<br /><br /><i>After several days of tense negotiations, an agreement was reached between Kennedy and Khrushchev: <b>publicly, the Soviets would dismantle their offensive weapons in Cuba and return them to the Soviet Union</b>, subject to United Nations verification, in exchange for a US public declaration and agreement to not invade Cuba again. <b>Secretly, the United States agreed with the Soviets that it would dismantle all of the Jupiter MRBMs which had been deployed to Turkey</b> against the Soviet Union.</i><br /><br />(and we in the free and democratic west were not informed about the missiles being withdrawn from Turkey, and believed for decades that Kennedy had made the Soviets back down, when the Soviet Union actually came out best.) Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-23028923589376157182022-07-10T13:30:13.717+01:002022-07-10T13:30:13.717+01:00"Defensive" in the sense that Russia is ..."Defensive" in the sense that Russia is defending the Russian minorities in Donbass and Luhansk from attack by Ukranian forces, and providing forward defence for Russia itself from a United States that has a declared goal of regime change in Russia. As anon says, no country is perfect here.<br /><br />For a neutral overview of events leading up to the present war, see the articles by Jacques Baud, who was a colonel in the Swiss army, attached to NATO in Brussels.DJKnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-8936228624534843042022-07-10T13:11:28.852+01:002022-07-10T13:11:28.852+01:00ND you are better than this, "what Russia did...ND you are better than this, "what Russia did in c19 or Soviet Union did in 68". The Communists aren't there any more. You may as well criticise BoJo because of C19 Brit imperialism. We have a pretty impressive history of invading and attacking our neighbours, every European country does.<br /><br />The US has IIRC 823 worldwide military bases. How many has Russia got? A couple in Syria, at the invitation of the Syrian Government?<br /><br /><b>"Russia wants war - just look at how close they put their country to our military bases!"</b> <br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32841798.post-92166709051121771642022-07-10T12:01:03.051+01:002022-07-10T12:01:03.051+01:00What Putin is defending is his personal grip on po...What Putin is defending is his personal grip on power. Nothing else.<br /><br />Plutarch's "Lives" are full of such characters. <br /><br />DonDon Coxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06339420519741253080noreply@blogger.com