Many esteemed economists, such as the excellent Roger Bootle, have been calling the top of the UK house market for a long time. Long enough that to follow their advice would have left one out of pocket.
But now the signs are all there, the credit crunch, the Northern Rock debacle, the collapse in loans and now HIPS. Even in my road I can see that the two houses on sale have had a couple of price reductions and are still unsold, reduced 20% from their toppy starting marker.
There are a number of factors that will underpin the market to stop a US style rout; in the main this will be the huge pent up demand and lack of supply of anything except flats. In some areas I doubt the prices will dip hardly at all; in others people may well get wiped out with 50% falls and more.
I am glad that personally I have no need to move for a couple of years as this must make moving house at the moment even more excruciatingly painful than normal in the UK.
I'm bothered that much of our 'pent up demand' is from people in employment which is financed from equity release, ie leisure, luxury goods.
ReplyDeleteAlso with a fall in city bonuses expected this year ...
Hope things are well with you, CU.
Bugger. I gave up trying to persuade my wife that we should sell-to-rent about 6 months ago, but now she has changed her mind and our house is on the market.
ReplyDeleteA friend sold her near Bond Street London flat 6 months ago and put the proceeds in Northern Rock. Whoops.
ReplyDeleteEK - Well hopefully a few of the people may have saved some money!
ReplyDeleteMark - no, that is a different situation, as long as you get the money you need you should do fine. Where to invest all the released equity is harder task!
ReplyDeleteHG - In theory this should be the safest place in the country today as long as it is in cash and not shares.
ReplyDeleteIf it is in shares then clealry you should be on suicide watch.
I bought near the top, but have no plans to move for two-three years at least. I read somewhere that no post-war slump has lasted more than five years. I only care about rates and my job security.
ReplyDeleteED - As those in the City wish to keep quiet, sahres and property provide about the same average return over 20 years...and even the great deperssion was over afte 5 years!
ReplyDeletecity unslicker - yes the Great Depression ended after 5 years. WWII started instead, which took peoples mind off it... don't say you haven't been warned!!!
ReplyDelete"Where to invest all the released equity is harder task!"
ReplyDeleteGovernment bonds!
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