As we coast towards year-end, Let's see . . . The world's central banks, obviously working together, inject $0.540 TRILLION dollars into the financial system in one day. Would that classify as pushing the panic button? Is a pig's rear pork? Can a duck swim? Does a bank suck blood? Of course! You can hear the sweat dropping off their foreheads from 
And if this doesn't grip you, check Sackerson for other scary stuff.
On the other hand …gold (in
ND
Hi Nick - your link to me actually takes us through to Bullion Vault! Which of my posts did you have in mind?
ReplyDeletePeople have me down as a gold bull, but actually I think we're in a very volatile/fool's market generally and can't think of anything I'd recommend. I know Marc Faber says gold could break $1,000/oz. soon but remember, for all the gentle European manner, he's an ex-Swiss national team skier and still (at his age!) a recreational superbike rider: he is bright, quick and has balls of brass.
So I think Marc Faber and the gold market are for the fast-moving trader; stocks are for the very long-term investor; and everyone else had better work out their worst-case scenario survival plan, just in case.
I have thought that the pound needed to come down quite significantly for some time, but the trade figures out today(?) show classic signs of a Labour balance of payments crisis.
ReplyDeleteJust remember, the pound in your pocket... etc.
Is this how we join the euro?
Fixed !
ReplyDeletesorry abt that Sackers, wasn't meant to be a satirical comment
I didn't want to be any more prescriptive than to invite folks to look around, you post loads of excellent stuff (not all of it apocalyptic)
very volatile/fool's market generally and can't think of anything - agreed, so I'm heavily into 'zero'-risk now: but still keep a little back for active management & have found gold behaves quite nicely
Ed - CU will have something to say about that, I'm sure - but meantime I would say no: the last thing you'd do at a time like this is lock in to the DM again ! ask the Spanish.
ReplyDeletethen again, knowing McBroon, and your namesake Mr Balls ...
I am looking forward to a definitive explanation of why they have been piling into US Treasuries. I suppose the recent fall in the £ makes it a good investment ! Insider trading ??
What I really meant was that the pound might collapse in value so much that the only option is to sell the paper to the Germans at a preferential rate.
ReplyDelete'worst-case scenario survival' plans take surprisingly long times to put into effect. It's what can be done in a hurry that's left to do for most people now.
ReplyDeleteI don't get the GBP pessimism, the same shit will happen to USD, JPY, EUR, the whole bloody lot, surely?
ReplyDeleteIt's a question of the relative impact of the same shit on different currencies that matters.
Happy Xmas Gorgeous
ReplyDeleteblimey !
ReplyDeleteAnd to yourself, madam
you are MOST welcome
Well the difference between GBP/USD and JPY/EUR is international trade. The UK now has a worse trade gap than at the peak of the 80s boom and significantly wider than the US (post devaluation). I think that is quite enough to be pessimistic.
ReplyDeleteWe can't go on borrowing 6% of GDP year-in, year-out even if El Gordo says we can. He never was much good at arithmetic.
What price a recession in 2008?
ReplyDeleteI'm very schizophrenic when it comes to GBP/USD. On the one hand, all my USD investments become more valuable when the USD goes up :-). But then most of wealth is in GBP so in terms of the big picture, I must be less wealthy :-(. For a while I was hedging via City Index, which has netted me a few £k, however I think I've decided against that as a long term strategy now because it's quite onerous keeping track of whether margin calls might become due.
ReplyDeleteGB xxx
GB - surely it all depends on whether you have a large transaction imminent (asset sale, new loan) ? Otherwise they are just inevitable fluctuations within a wisely diversified portfolio
ReplyDelete(and diversification is the only free lunch, as eny fule kno)
In my case Nick, I have a long-standing USD denominated investment in a hedge fund. The returns look quite good in USD this year, but until the recent fall of GBP/USD they were very average in GBP. I'm invested in the hedge fund because I believe in their strategy, but in all honestly I don't really have any view on the forex risk. If anything, I've been a USD bear along with everyone else. So if I was an institutional investor I reckon that means I should hedge that risk, because it adds unecessary volatility to my returns. Because at present I'm unhedged, the recent USD rally has been good for me. Although vs EUR of course, my Tuscan holidays and French wine purchases will now be slighly more expensive :-(!
ReplyDeleteGB xxx
Well I think my point remains: if a $ investment achieves diversification for you, but you restore it to a £ investment via hedging, you have replaced the egg into the original basket - but maybe you are not so concerned abt diversifying
ReplyDeleteBTW I have noticed some notionally 'US' funds that do well in $, have been achieving this by sneakily investing in non-$ assets ...
(none of this is financial advice of course, just comments in the abstract)
Well I am sticking on gold for now as part of my portfolio. Unlikely to tank like some of my other investments if the economy goes off a cliff next year.
ReplyDeleteJJ - Sentiment drives recessions and the sentiment right now is really bad. I hope it does pick up over christmas or else next year will be a difficult time.
Ed - The pound may suffer but the credit crisis may destroy the euro. Why do you think it is relatively unaffected Euroland that is pouring the most money to keep liquidity up? It is becuase they have politics to lose in a way that the US/UK do not. We can just let our currencies drop for a while...
@Jeremy: Will we have a recession you ask?
ReplyDeleteWell take a look at these M4 money supply statistics from the BoE:-
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/m4/2007/nov/index.htm
Now for most of the time during Labour's reign we have had M4 money supply running at 12% p.a. which equates to about 1.0% per month. But what has happened in the last few months? I summarise below:-
Aug 1.3%
Sep 0.9%
Oct 0.2%
Nov 0.1%
M4 money supply has dropped off Beachy Head!
Its not unusual for money supply to drop for one month in the Autumn, but the Oct/Nov figures give us too extremely low M4 months.
What does this mean to the man in the street? Well M4 money supply indicates the amount of money being created out of thin air in the economy by lending banks. Mostly "electronic" money. All the "growth" we have had for the last 10 years has been attributable to the creation of M4 money. GDP growth has absorbed some of it, and the rest has been absorbed in rapidly growing property prices. There has been no real growth - in fact the UK economy has actually contracted as more and more people are working in non-jobs for the government.
So if we had M4 money supply at 12% and it only gave us 3% growth then a contraction in M4 money supply to 1.2% would result in... a severe recession. So we would need to see a significant improvement in M4 money supply in the next few months or we will be in a severe recession due to the generation and take-up of credit coming to a dramatic halt.
Well I am sticking on gold for now as part of my portfolio. Unlikely to tank like some of my other investments if the economy goes off a cliff next year.
ReplyDeleteJJ - Sentiment drives recessions and the sentiment right now is really bad. I hope it does pick up over christmas or else next year will be a difficult time.
Ed - The pound may suffer but the credit crisis may destroy the euro. Why do you think it is relatively unaffected Euroland that is pouring the most money to keep liquidity up? It is becuase they have politics to lose in a way that the US/UK do not. We can just let our currencies drop for a while...
Thanks for correcting my assumption. That sounds like rather a desirable outcome to me: a recession here to pull people back from their splurge and a break-up of the Euro preceding an end to political integration.
ReplyDeleteMerry Christmas!
and a Merry Christmas to you, Ed
ReplyDeleteaaaa片, 免費聊天, 咆哮小老鼠影片分享區, 金瓶梅影片, av女優王國, 78論壇, 女同聊天室, 熟女貼圖, 1069壞朋友論壇gay, 淫蕩少女總部, 日本情色派, 平水相逢, 黑澀會美眉無名, 網路小說免費看, 999東洋成人, 免費視訊聊天, 情色電影分享區, 9k躺伯虎聊天室, 傑克論壇, 日本女星杉本彩寫真, 自拍電影免費下載, a片論壇, 情色短片試看, 素人自拍寫真, 免費成人影音, 彩虹自拍, 小魔女貼影片, 自拍裸體寫真, 禿頭俱樂部, 環球av影音城, 學生色情聊天室, 視訊美女, 辣妹情色圖, 性感卡通美女圖片, 影音, 情色照片 做愛, hilive tv , 忘年之交聊天室, 制服美女, 性感辣妹, ut 女同聊天室, 淫蕩自拍, 處女貼圖貼片區, 聊天ukiss tw, 亞亞成人館, 777成人, 秋瓷炫裸體寫真, 淫蕩天使貼圖, 十八禁成人影音, 禁地論壇, 洪爺淫蕩自拍, 秘書自拍圖片,
ReplyDelete做愛的漫畫圖片, 情色電影分享區, 做愛ㄉ影片, 丁字褲美女寫真, 色美眉, 自拍俱樂部首頁, 日本偷自拍圖片, 色情做愛影片, 情色貼圖區, 八國聯軍情色網, 免費線上a片, 淫蕩女孩自拍, 美國a片, 都都成人站, 色情自拍, 本土自拍照片, 熊貓貼圖區, 色情影片, 5278影片網, 脫星寫真圖片, 粉喵聊天室, 金瓶梅18, sex888影片分享區, 1007視訊, 雙贏論壇, 爆爆爽a片免費看, 天堂私服論壇, 情色電影下載, 成人短片, 麗的線上情色小遊戲, 情色動畫免費下載, 日本女優, 小說論壇, 777成人區, showlive影音聊天網, 聊天室尋夢園, 義大利女星寫真集, 韓國a片, 熟女人妻援交, 0204成人, 性感內衣模特兒, 影片, 情色卡通, 85cc免費影城85cc, 本土自拍照片, 成人漫畫區, 18禁, 情人節阿性,
情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 言情小說, 愛情小說, 色情A片, 情色論壇, 色情影片, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊美女, 視訊交友, ut聊天室, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, a片下載, av片, A漫, av dvd, av成人網, 聊天室, 成人論壇, 本土自拍, 自拍, A片, 愛情公寓, 情色, 舊情人, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 情色交友, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊, 情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 色情a片, 一夜情, 辣妹視訊, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊, 視訊美女, 美女視訊, 視訊交友, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, 情人視訊網, 影音視訊聊天室, 視訊交友90739, 成人影片, 成人交友,
ReplyDelete免費A片, 本土自拍, AV女優, 美女視訊, 情色交友, 免費AV, 色情網站, 辣妹視訊, 美女交友, 色情影片, 成人影片, 成人網站, A片,H漫, 18成人, 成人圖片, 成人漫畫, 情色網, 日本A片, 免費A片下載, 性愛, 成人交友, 嘟嘟成人網, 成人電影, 成人, 成人貼圖, 成人小說, 成人文章, 成人圖片區, 免費成人影片, 成人遊戲, 微風成人, 愛情公寓, 情色, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 做愛, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 寄情築園小遊戲, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊,