The proposed purchase of A&L today took me by surprise (I wish it had not, share price up 50% ina day!). Santander, already the owner of Abbey, will have a huge 40% share of the UK mortgage market - just as the property bubble deflates.
At the same time, as I have noted before many times, the Spanish economy is in meltdown and has no good news coming out of it. Domestic construction in particular, which Santander is heavily exposed to in its loan book, is in a massive slump. Where Santander scores high marks is in not being exposed to the main credit crunch in terms of owning any mortgage-backed securities.
A&L therefore must be seriously undervalued for this deal to make sense, or else the Spanish are nuts. Santander has a very efficient back office system that allows it to beat most other banks to profitability hands down, hence its success. No doubt it sees A&L as a perfect addition to its successful Abbey purchase.
But it is going to take more than that to make this work; Another Spanish-UK mega-takeover comes to mind - Ferrocial buying BAA - a disastrous acquisition all round.
However, could there be another angle? As A&L will have a very odd looking book Santander can write this down to near zero value and book the acquisition as goodwill. Which generates a tax break under Spanish law (up until the EU intervenes). Very shrewd perhaps....
I recall E.ON thinking they could cleverly synergise their two big UK acquisitions (Powergen and TXU) - oooops !
ReplyDeleteTook 'em several years - not many efficiencies or synergies in sight
The deal makes sense if A&L plus the cost savings are worth more than the paper that Santander is issuing.
ReplyDeleteI would guess that this is the case, unless the mortghage losses on A &L are horrendous. The shareprice, I suspect, had fallen because a rights issue was necessary and undershot fair value.
Once mortgage lending returns to something like normal, Santander will have a huge market share and low cost structure in a market where lots of capacity has been removed.
The paper issued, I suspect may prove to be worth rather less than its current price.
Maybe they are less gloomy about the UK's prospects than you CU?! What a shame HMG didn't allow a similar takeover of NR, then we might not be in such a dire position today...
ReplyDeleteThey may have a very efficient back office but my experience with Abbey is that its service went downhill dramatically after it was taken over by Santander.
ReplyDeleteJames - Oh there is good potential here.
ReplyDeleteBE - They think they have a bargain, they may be right, maybe not.
Ryan - Yup, they come bottom for quality service all the time.
The Tuscan is prepared to wager 1 litre of finest oil that the Spaniard burn on this, inside 18 months.
ReplyDelete40%? Surely not. HBOS is the biggest with about 20%, A&L is quite small (8%?).
ReplyDelete13% in total, says .
ReplyDeleteMW quite right, meant to say 40% growth on their portfolio.
ReplyDeleteAgree with Ryan. AbbNat used to be first rate in most things, but now crap and unintelligible waffle is all you get in their correspondence, even on the simplest of matters. The new owners seem to have dumped all the literate and experienced managers whose replacements fail to cut the mustard.
ReplyDeleteaaaa片, 免費聊天, 咆哮小老鼠影片分享區, 金瓶梅影片, av女優王國, 78論壇, 女同聊天室, 熟女貼圖, 1069壞朋友論壇gay, 淫蕩少女總部, 日本情色派, 平水相逢, 黑澀會美眉無名, 網路小說免費看, 999東洋成人, 免費視訊聊天, 情色電影分享區, 9k躺伯虎聊天室, 傑克論壇, 日本女星杉本彩寫真, 自拍電影免費下載, a片論壇, 情色短片試看, 素人自拍寫真, 免費成人影音, 彩虹自拍, 小魔女貼影片, 自拍裸體寫真, 禿頭俱樂部, 環球av影音城, 學生色情聊天室, 視訊美女, 辣妹情色圖, 性感卡通美女圖片, 影音, 情色照片 做愛, hilive tv , 忘年之交聊天室, 制服美女, 性感辣妹, ut 女同聊天室, 淫蕩自拍, 處女貼圖貼片區, 聊天ukiss tw, 亞亞成人館, 777成人, 秋瓷炫裸體寫真, 淫蕩天使貼圖, 十八禁成人影音, 禁地論壇, 洪爺淫蕩自拍, 秘書自拍圖片,
ReplyDelete做愛的漫畫圖片, 情色電影分享區, 做愛ㄉ影片, 丁字褲美女寫真, 色美眉, 自拍俱樂部首頁, 日本偷自拍圖片, 色情做愛影片, 情色貼圖區, 八國聯軍情色網, 免費線上a片, 淫蕩女孩自拍, 美國a片, 都都成人站, 色情自拍, 本土自拍照片, 熊貓貼圖區, 色情影片, 5278影片網, 脫星寫真圖片, 粉喵聊天室, 金瓶梅18, sex888影片分享區, 1007視訊, 雙贏論壇, 爆爆爽a片免費看, 天堂私服論壇, 情色電影下載, 成人短片, 麗的線上情色小遊戲, 情色動畫免費下載, 日本女優, 小說論壇, 777成人區, showlive影音聊天網, 聊天室尋夢園, 義大利女星寫真集, 韓國a片, 熟女人妻援交, 0204成人, 性感內衣模特兒, 影片, 情色卡通, 85cc免費影城85cc, 本土自拍照片, 成人漫畫區, 18禁, 情人節阿性,
情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 言情小說, 愛情小說, 色情A片, 情色論壇, 色情影片, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊美女, 視訊交友, ut聊天室, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, a片下載, av片, A漫, av dvd, av成人網, 聊天室, 成人論壇, 本土自拍, 自拍, A片, 愛情公寓, 情色, 舊情人, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 情色交友, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊, 情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 色情a片, 一夜情, 辣妹視訊, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊, 視訊美女, 美女視訊, 視訊交友, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, 情人視訊網, 影音視訊聊天室, 視訊交友90739, 成人影片, 成人交友,
ReplyDelete免費A片, 本土自拍, AV女優, 美女視訊, 情色交友, 免費AV, 色情網站, 辣妹視訊, 美女交友, 色情影片, 成人影片, 成人網站, A片,H漫, 18成人, 成人圖片, 成人漫畫, 情色網, 日本A片, 免費A片下載, 性愛, 成人交友, 嘟嘟成人網, 成人電影, 成人, 成人貼圖, 成人小說, 成人文章, 成人圖片區, 免費成人影片, 成人遊戲, 微風成人, 愛情公寓, 情色, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 做愛, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 寄情築園小遊戲, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊,