All quiet on the markets today, taking a little respite from last week's mauling no doubt. This week will be interesting to see if the hedge fund continue their massive sell-off of everything to pay for their redemptions. Also to see how insurers cope after the end of last weeks scare.
But really, everyone is waiting for tomorrow and the final Lehmans settlement. can this go off without setting off another major bout of financial turbulence? if so this could be the sign we are nearing the bottom of the crisis market (...just the depression market left to price in?).
Odd to have had a weekend without a bank failing though, not sure I can get used to that again.
(...just the depression market left to price in?)...
ReplyDeleteHalf of China's Toy companies have gone bust already. Guess the other half will go after December!
What's your take on the Treasury's theory that the downturn will be short and shallow because of the Bank's ability to slash rates in the absence of high inflation?
ReplyDeleteI hope they are right, but methinks they are just trying to instil a bit of much-needed confidence.
Say no to Keynesian reflation.
Odd to have had a weekend without a bank failing though, not sure I can get used to that again.
ReplyDeleteYou mean, a weekend without a UK bank failING ?
patently - well quite!
ReplyDeleteBE - We are having deflation now and that will last until all the delveraging is complete (with hedgies and banks bust).
ReplyDeletethen the massive monetary expansion that has cushioned the landing will cause huge a huge bout of inflation in a year or so's time. Only it will be stagflation.
I will do a longer post on this later in the week.
CU, c'mon, how huge is huge? 5%? 15%? 25%? And what will happen to interest rates on savings and GBP?
ReplyDeleteMW - re my answer to blue eyes, saving will be a disaster if you stick to cash. interest rates to zero then a huge jump in inflation.
ReplyDeleteYou will need to time switches between assets well.
I see that the Saffron Building Society is offering a cash ISA linked to RPI.
ReplyDeleteCU, the UK gummint appears to be adopting the 1990s Japanese 'solution'; nationalise debts, reduce interest rates to zero etc. Where's the asset price inflation in Japan been hiding these last fifteen years?
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to the promised post, in which I trust you will address these issues.
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