The British Gas announcement of a 10% retail price reduction, welcome as it may be, is small beer. For 2009 we predicted a major decline in European wholesale gas prices, with big knock-on effects in the market.It’s moving our way. Consider the graph of UK spot gas price, and recall that this is the period during which Russia turned off the taps. Responding as only a free market can, British suppliers commenced exporting into Europe – yes, even in mid-winter – and still UK prices barely moved. (In earlier situations of shortfall, UK spot prices have been known to spike to over 200 p/th.)
This speaks to a very comfortable supply situation: in fact, an over-supply, which will cause prices to slide significantly as we move out of winter. It also speaks to the superiority of open markets as a means of responding to problems, however large.
Both of these lessons point to big changes ahead. Russia must face up to a huge dent in its export revenues. European oligopolies are hooked on commitments to buy minimum quantities which, even at falling prices, look pretty sick against recession-battered industrial demand. Notwithstanding their strong hostility to spot markets they will perforce be dumping surplus supplies into the market and thereby adding greatly to liquidity. This will strengthen market mechanisms and competition - and weaken Russia’s position still further.
Recession, eh ? It’s an ill wind …
ND
All true. Nonetheless we should do our best to ensure that we're not held to ransom over any raw materials, or foodstuffs, ever. If that means stockpiling or multi-sourcing then so be it.
ReplyDeleteNot that that's likely, but I'm concerned that volatility (political) in other parts of the world remains a major threat.
I like the idea of countries buying more gas than they need and then having to offload it (to us) at a loss. Kind of makes right the previous situation where the cartels in Europe forced us to buy emergency supplies at bizarre prices.
ReplyDeleteUnsworth - I agree, but neither gas nor oil are in short supply, and the best way of not being held to ransom is if all buyers / importers ensure there is a free market, so whatever oil is available goes to wherever the need is greatest, as signalled by price.
ReplyDeleteThis is how the West overcame the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-74: no-one has ever been held to ransom over oil since then (bar a couple of very minor local issues in the Baltic states); and it's how we should sort the Russian gas issue. Russian gas only represents 6.5% of EU primary energy !
So - stockpiling up to a point, but even better is to multi-source, as you put it, or in the words of Churchill:
Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety and variety alone
BE - yup, sometimes virtue is indeed its own reward !
Thanks for promoting me to your 'seen elsewhere' section.
ReplyDeletePutin (when told of this) said: "Buck, the markets!"
ReplyDelete(At least I think that's what he said)
aaaa片, 免費聊天, 咆哮小老鼠影片分享區, 金瓶梅影片, av女優王國, 78論壇, 女同聊天室, 熟女貼圖, 1069壞朋友論壇gay, 淫蕩少女總部, 日本情色派, 平水相逢, 黑澀會美眉無名, 網路小說免費看, 999東洋成人, 免費視訊聊天, 情色電影分享區, 9k躺伯虎聊天室, 傑克論壇, 日本女星杉本彩寫真, 自拍電影免費下載, a片論壇, 情色短片試看, 素人自拍寫真, 免費成人影音, 彩虹自拍, 小魔女貼影片, 自拍裸體寫真, 禿頭俱樂部, 環球av影音城, 學生色情聊天室, 視訊美女, 辣妹情色圖, 性感卡通美女圖片, 影音, 情色照片 做愛, hilive tv , 忘年之交聊天室, 制服美女, 性感辣妹, ut 女同聊天室, 淫蕩自拍, 處女貼圖貼片區, 聊天ukiss tw, 亞亞成人館, 777成人, 秋瓷炫裸體寫真, 淫蕩天使貼圖, 十八禁成人影音, 禁地論壇, 洪爺淫蕩自拍, 秘書自拍圖片,
ReplyDelete做愛的漫畫圖片, 情色電影分享區, 做愛ㄉ影片, 丁字褲美女寫真, 色美眉, 自拍俱樂部首頁, 日本偷自拍圖片, 色情做愛影片, 情色貼圖區, 八國聯軍情色網, 免費線上a片, 淫蕩女孩自拍, 美國a片, 都都成人站, 色情自拍, 本土自拍照片, 熊貓貼圖區, 色情影片, 5278影片網, 脫星寫真圖片, 粉喵聊天室, 金瓶梅18, sex888影片分享區, 1007視訊, 雙贏論壇, 爆爆爽a片免費看, 天堂私服論壇, 情色電影下載, 成人短片, 麗的線上情色小遊戲, 情色動畫免費下載, 日本女優, 小說論壇, 777成人區, showlive影音聊天網, 聊天室尋夢園, 義大利女星寫真集, 韓國a片, 熟女人妻援交, 0204成人, 性感內衣模特兒, 影片, 情色卡通, 85cc免費影城85cc, 本土自拍照片, 成人漫畫區, 18禁, 情人節阿性,