Time to predict.
No Question time as there seems to be some event going on at the BBC.Instead ..election results prediction please.
The c@w readers are the most informed, educated, intelligent and reckless on the internet.
Do you think the late Con surge will take them to 40%? The Lib Dems have faded but will the tactical vote call earn them 30%? Will Gordon stay on and still be in No 10 not just tomorrow, but for another five years?
Place your seats and % numbers into the comments.
And while you're thinking about it watch the short video above to help to remind you of some the faces from the political bubble.
Plus a special IS IT SAFE competition
Is the political seat safe or unsafe?
Ed Balls - Morley and Outwood {+25% ish}
Yvette Cooper - Pontefract and Castleford {+46.6%}
Alistair Darling - Edinburgh South West {+16.5% }
Hazel Blears - Salford {+32.7% }
Jon Cruddas - Dagenham {+14.9%}
John Bercow Buckingham {+38.1%}
Luton South - Exiting Marge Moran {+14.5%} will it go to Esther?
Jacqui Smith - Redditch {+5.1% }
Phil Woolas - Oldham East and Saddleworth {+2.8 }
Bill Rammell - Harlow {+1.2%}
10 out 10 right anyone?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
Plus a special IS IT SAFE competitionIs the political seat safe or unsafe?
Ed Balls - Morley and Outwood {+25% ish}
Yvette Cooper - Pontefract and Castleford {+46.6%}
Alistair Darling - Edinburgh South West {+16.5% }
Hazel Blears - Salford {+32.7% }
Jon Cruddas - Dagenham {+14.9%}
John Bercow Buckingham {+38.1%}
Luton South - Exiting Marge Moran {+14.5%} will it go to Esther?
Jacqui Smith - Redditch {+5.1% }
Phil Woolas - Oldham East and Saddleworth {+2.8 }
Bill Rammell - Harlow {+1.2%}
10 out 10 right anyone?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
38% Conservative
ReplyDelete29% Labour
26% Lib Dem
Conservatives 3 short of a majority.
There is something in the British psyche that give us a tendency to vote conservative, but not want to admit it.
ReplyDeleteSmall Con majority ~15
The difference between this result and a very hung parliament is around the poll sample error. No science here.
Bercow is, sadly, I think safe.
ReplyDeleteCon - 37%
ReplyDeleteLab-29%
Lib -26%
Ed Balls - safe
Yvette Cooper -Very safe
Alistair Darling - worried, but safe
Hazel Blears -safe
Jon Cruddas - Teeth pulled -not safe
John Bercow - safe, but will need braces.
Esther - Not safe
Jacqui Smith Teeth drilled to the roots
Phil Woolas -who? not safe
Bill Rammell - not safe. Teeth out.
small conservative majority. 10-20 ish
ReplyDeleteWhat the fat bigot said.
ReplyDelete38-27-28
ReplyDeleteI REALLY want Labour to come third. My stock portfolio really neads a Blue Win, its down 10% in 2days!
I have discovered i can vote in my old constituency so will head back there after work to vote for Boris' brother.
Sadly I agree with Tim W. - Bercow will hold on too everyone's dismay. Tories may not even be abel to get rid of him unless they get an opposition speaker.
The hype suggesting Balls will lose will prove to be hype too.
Con - 35%
ReplyDeleteLab -29%
Lib -28%
cons some 50 short.
Bercow - safe.
Balls - safe
Smith - very dangerous
Con 37%
ReplyDeleteLab 29%
Lib 25%
other 9%
Con 25 short -
Ed Balls ..safe, but has a large scare.
Yvette Cooper..safe
Alistair Darling - safe, but reduced
Hazel Blears - safe, but reduced
Jon Cruddas - unsafe
John Bercow unsafe, but holds
Jacqui Smithunsafe
Phil Woolas unsafe
Bill Rammell - unsafe
Bill Quango - Safe
This is a great place where you can play with different % and seats.
ReplyDelete- LD vote to collapse today, when people actually get into the polling station
- plus Cons support always understated in polls.
- plus a good year for the whacky one-issue parties
Conservative 39.9 (326 seats)
Labour 29.6 (246)
LD 20.7 (51)
Others 9.8 (27)
Ed Balls - Out
Yvette Cooper - Stays
Alistair Darling - Stays
Hazel Blears - Stay
Jon Cruddas - Out
John Bercow Out
Luton South - Stay
Jacqui Smith - Out
Phil Woolas - Out
Bill Rammell - Stays
Unslicker I share your pain. Good run in the banks but time to exit.Swing High Sweet Chariot.
ReplyDeleteCons will have a majority of about ten. The waverers will mark Cameron to surprise pollsters.
Opik is heading for Limpdick status.
Greece bail-out is an elastoplast. Spain and Portugal next.
I think I guessed at a Tory majority of 20 a few months ago so will stick by that. Even though it looks rather unlikely now.
ReplyDeleteWorst in the short term is a Lib-Lab pact government with Brown staying as PM. Shares, Gilts to tank if so. But it might be best long term.
Cameron has chosen not to highlight how bad the cuts will have to be. So, as King says, if the Tories get in, and cut, they will be hated for a generation. Why does Cameron lay himself open to these obvious points (he lost the propaganda war over Lisbon in the same way)?
Con 34%
ReplyDeleteLib 30%
Lab 28%
Balls - out
Blears - in
Smith - out
Bercow - in
I have wetted the seaweed, tossed the tea leaves and shaken the bones. The bones seem to have the word...
ReplyDeleteCon 39%(underestimated) = 350 ish seats
Lab 24%(overestimated)= 200 ish seats
Lib 26%(Fall off a bit) = 75 ish seats
I really want to see Labour/Brown in particular destroyed, so I may have shaken the bones more than once before I was happy.
P.S. Just voted for your portfolio :)
Conservatives will get 303 seats.
ReplyDeleteSmith is toast. Sadly, Bercow isn't.
Conservative working majority of 37 (or 21)...oh yes!
ReplyDeleteWord verification silli, d'oh!
Cons majority, don't know how big.
ReplyDeleteHave reckoned this is a '79-er, rather than a '92-er, for quite a while now
Con 41%
ReplyDeleteLab 25%
Lib 25%
other 9%
Working Majority.
Bercow in.
Esther ..not even close
Blears - out
Rammell - in
Hung parliament.
ReplyDeleteAll the way along the mall.
Con 35%
ReplyDeleteLabour 30%
Lib Dem 28%
{just voted for Clegg!}
Dave - 37%
ReplyDeleteGordon - 28%
Nick - 25%
Other -10%
Balls -safe
Bercow - safe
Blears is the Portillo
Mrs Dodge - Red Card & life ban for voting Lib Dem, no parole.
ReplyDeleteCon 37%
ReplyDeleteLib 29%
Lab 25%
I see Labour 25% Libs 29% and ...hey I agree exactly with the person just before me . I think this might be the end for the Labour party.
ReplyDeletePleased to see others share my loathing of the little piggy Bercow and his nutty bag lady wife.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteConservative win outright.
ReplyDeleteAt least here anyway. Anne Marie-Morris is a foxy little chick.
I think Conservative will win by a small majority.
ReplyDeleteMany smaller parties will do well as they attract protest votes.
BNP website fiasco can't have done them any favours but it won't affect those intending to vote for them who don't live on the net and eat current affairs (I prefer my current affairs with a dash of sauce).
Shame about Nigel Farage - events will make at least one politician not care about the election: he's just glad he's alive!
It's a very high turnout in central London, lots of students here of course and all registered by their halls of residence. I wonder if the Lib Dems are going to be really good at getting their vote out or even knowing where it is in some constituencies, which will give lower real vote totals. Labour seem really to have angered people in a quite personal way. They may get low voter turnout as their former Blair voters decide for none of the above. So, assuming the high turnout is formerly quiescent Tories:
ReplyDeleteConservative 40
Libdem 25
Labour 24
(all numbers -ish)
Thumbs down for Ed Balls, Esther, Smith, Woolas, Rammell; Cruddas will have a big personal vote and survive, Darling will be, how to put it? "organised" and survive; the others Blears, Cooper, Bercow have majorities too big for anything less than meltdown.
Poll of polls -
ReplyDeleteSo far Capitalists comments predict
Con 37.5
Lab 27
Lib 26
10 point Tory lead. Probably just enough.
final polls had ..
ComRes survey for the Independent Tories 37 per cent
Labour 28 per cent
Lib Dems 28 per cent.
ICM for the Guardian
Tory 36 per cent
Labour 28 per cent
Lib Dems 26 per cent
Yougov
Tories on 35 per cent.
Labour 28 per cent
Libs 28 per cent
Lib Dem drop has been a shock.
ReplyDelete