(As a quick aside, its a balance sheet recession, the issue in an acute crisis such as this is demand not credit. For once I'd be in favour of some big Govt capital spending increase, without actual economic activity we could have a 2008 recession rerun. Credit supply is only a part of the problem so this seems to me to be half an answer - this is not long-term keynesianism I am advocating, its a crisis response).
I see events unfolding thus:
Sunday - Inconclusive Greek general election, a total rerun of last time (the polls are almost identical). So no new Government on Monday and Syriza getting a chance next week to try and form a Government. Loans and market confidence in Greece evaporates.
Monday - Some chaos on the markets, Spain and Italy find funding hard - but no October 2008 crash, yet. G20 meeting will avoid this as traders and investors wait and see
Tuesday/Wednesday - Now what? Does the Troika give more money to Greece and will it matter? With bad policy management this could see some very sharp drops if policy response is not forthcoming from the G20.
All in all, shaping up to be a very interesting week - clogging will be heavy here in contrast to the lightness of the past week due to heavy workloads being endured by your contributors.
PS And can England even beat Sweden tonight...
Squeaky or lubricated?
ReplyDeleteI'm going to Turkey in two weeks and some of the hotels charge in EUR.
ReplyDeleteWhen to get my currency?
I've predicted the denoument for July; next week will see a lot of faffing about and a big reassuring announcement (they'll have this sorted in reserve) that will last a few days, but w/c 25th will be when it starts to tumble out of control I think.
ReplyDeleteend Sept/Oct for me. Euro and american debt election collide.
ReplyDeleteSweden will win.
ReplyDeleteThe picture of Fergie reminds me that the owners are going into swapping debt for equity and doing it in New York rather than Singapore. This maybe to do with new UEFA rules about clubs with high debt being banned from Euro competitions. But is may be to do with something else. I'm flagging offide.
ReplyDeleteI may be a bitter Jock, but frankly if this England side were playing the blind school, I would fancy a flutter on the blind school.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, I know Scotland are shit. But at least we know we are. The endless misplaced optimism of the tabloids concerning the white-shirted oafs does grate after a few decades.
Sebastian - what do you mean, "may be"?
ReplyDeleteSebastian...ha ha ha ha, Ha Ha Ha Ha, HA HA HA HA........
ReplyDelete@Lillith & the bitter jock
ReplyDeleteHah hah hah hahahahahahahahah Hah!
These things take an eternity, there is always one final rescue scheme available because the Europowers have a huge amount of other peoples money to throw at anything that undermines the masterplan.
ReplyDeleteSigns are that one day soon Greece will be forced to be the first Euro country to have to recognise the most obvious fact in life - if you live beyond your means the day will come when you have to make a painful adjustment.
My guess is that it will occur when normal parliamentary business across europe is taking a breather, so that other national interests won't be whipped to a froth by their superannuated politicians, I'll say mid-August.
Lucky people. They won't get much further.
ReplyDeleteAh, but I am a football Jonah!
ReplyDeleteclose call moment. started to give the ball away as usual. Terry's lost his legs but can still tackle perfectly.
ReplyDeleteNot bad. Not bad at all.
The solution to this problem is for the Euro currency to be abandoned, and for all of its members to revert overnight to their original currencies.
ReplyDeleteThen they can all play against each other, under a financial equivalent, known as EUFA rules.
Respective team (or country) currency values will then be determined through competition, as
with the football.
Greece just beat Russia - maybe that will boost morale there and prevent a meltdown.
ReplyDelete@iib: I really, really hope it does not have to come down to the outcome of a game of footie. On the other hand, nothing would surprises me any more!
ReplyDelete