Hey nonny-nonny....
This will be a fun day now because:
- Remoaners will think there is some sort of victory
- Lot of Lefty hand-wringing about the sovereignty of parliament
- Threats from the Lords about not playing ball as Article 50 is not in the Tory manifesto and so lots dark threats about not passing a Government bill.
- The Lib Dems will declare a need for a new referendum and an end of hunger globally.
All the while, the bullet is already shot. The EU already hate us and want us out; there will be no going back to them as the terms have been changed already.
Furthermore, May is in a great position, if Brexit is blocked by the Lords or Parliament then a snap election it is, with a 100-Seat majority as Hard Brexit as clause one of the manifesto.
Still, as they say of remoaners, its the hope that kills.....
If the Lords try to stymie a bill then there is a constitutional crisis. That can be solved with a manifesto to put Art 50 through the day after a snap election. A manifesto could properly address sigificant Lords reform as well.
ReplyDeleteT May would win a landslide, and could also set out in her manifesto:
- grammar schools
- Heathrow
- HS2 and other big projects
- big cuts in business taxes
- lots of other pet May projects
And nobody could hold her back from implementing them. Oh and she would have democratic credibility. Seems like a win-win for May.
Would May get a majority? With UKIP being second in many constituencies, she could actually lose her majority and be facing yet another coalition.
ReplyDeleteWill need to be some horse trading before she presses the button.
@Anon - I think UKIP would struggle to find decent candidates and funding to mount a serious threat. I've had quite a lot of dealings with them over the years and as soon as you move away from the EU topic, you kind of walk into a world of batshittery.
ReplyDeleteYeah, i'm not really moved by today at all. It was always vaguely inevitable and shouldn't really require much admin to fix - hopefully!!
Errm... Article 50 is a manifesto commitment. See page 73:
ReplyDelete"We will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in the EU. And then we will ask the British people whether they want to stay in on this basis, or leave. We will honour the result of the referendum, whatever the outcome."
Link: https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
ReplyDeleteThe right thing happened.
Democracy is preserved.
with the benefit of hindsight it was fairly smart for the govt to bring the case for two reasons
1
It signals very clearly that 'brexit means brexit' and there will be no deviation from that and so effectively launching ukip into vacuum (what are they for now?)
As such I put a small bet on tories to win the upcoming by elections.
Expect the tories to use the trident missile that works on UKIP in both constituencies - they are the threat in '20 and possibly '25.
2
Looks like it has stopped the SNP / Sinn Fein going to court separately and making an (even bigger) thing of it.
"On the devolution issues, the court unanimously concludes that neither section 1 nor section 75 of the NIA is of assistance in this case, and that the Sewel Convention does not give rise to a legally enforceable obligation."
Do you honestly think May would offer a hard Brexit manifesto?
ReplyDeleteSo there ought not to be a problem getting a one-line bill through both houses in double-quick time. Not even Ken Clarke can reasonably vote against!
ReplyDeleteI have no doubt that the "Lib" "Dems" will try and hold things up...
Andrew I would add
ReplyDelete3 - it settles it
And
4 - it has given time for informal chats with rEU countries so we can now see they are not going to be helpful.
I honestly think Theresa May is the separated at birth twin of Jean-Claude Juncker. So I don't exactly have much faith she will offer anything hard or soft. Just keep/letting others kick the Article 50 can down the long road.
ReplyDeleteA little OT been reading about the Battle of Towton when the rules of chivalry got very much ignored. With an awful lot of Lords getting their heads bashed in by the "Commoners". It will soon be Palm Sunday if the HoLs want a re-match.
Anon - what are you smoking?
ReplyDelete@ Blue Eyes
ReplyDeleteIf enough voters get pissed off with May and her delaying tactics Anon might just have forecast a Black Swan event.
Don't forget only twelve months ago a Brexit victory & Prseident Trump were the stuff of crackheads.
What delaying tactics??
ReplyDeleteBattle of Towton right at the end of March, was fought during an epic snowstorm.
ReplyDeleteGlobal warming. Caused by all the ..erm....well..the fires that people lit and used to roast their meals?
Well we did have one "Honourable" leader of the Government who said that Article 50 would be invoked on June 24th. Then resigned so there would be a breathing space for Plan B to be cobbled together.
ReplyDeleteIf May had the strength of her sudden found "Brexit means Brexit" beliefs she could have invoked Article 50 anytime after she was handed the keys to Number10. Taking on any legal challenges as they popped up.
I watched her Brexit speech the other week, it was full of the old T B-Lair body language, the "Are they really swallowing this?" method acting. Just look at her record at the Home Office - "A Sharia court coming to your town very soon."
Barnacle Bill, you might not be a legal expert but have you missed the last six months of discussion and court decisions on this topic?
ReplyDelete@ Bill Quango MP
ReplyDeleteSo very true and strangely enough the 550th anniversary celebrations had to be cancelled because of another freak snow storm on Palm Sunday!
Polly Toynbee has completely lost it now
ReplyDelete"this is the time for MPs to declare unequivocal, unilateral and unconditional love for all our EU citizens"
Irregardless of the Brexit debate, does this ruling now mean that no future treaty to take us into a supranational body could be negotiated without explicit Parliamentary consent to start the negotiations?
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteI think Ms Toynbee is feeling nauseous at the thought of having to queue up at a stuffy italian airport with all the other common uk oiks waiting hours to get through passport control.
ek "Do you honestly think May would offer a hard Brexit manifesto?"
ReplyDeleteOf course she will.
If it goes well, it was all down to her
If it goes badly it was all down to boris and the people who voted for it (like you).
I think your mistake is that you are looking at this from the pov of someone with principles.
"no future treaty to take us into a supranational body could be negotiated without explicit Parliamentary consent to start the negotiations?"
ReplyDeleteFairly sure Parliament consented to all the European treaties. And all the others.
Patently - sorry, that clause does not mention article 50 by name...the house of lords is full of lawyers!
ReplyDeleteWhat has happened to Bercow? In days gone by, the Speaker would have arranged for a Parliamentary debate on the matter. It would have been necessary for some oddly obscure person to take a case through the law courts. The publicity hungry midget has been absent from the news for a while. Does he still exist or do the cameras and journos not notice him now that he wears mufti?
ReplyDeleteShould say "it would not have been necessary"
ReplyDeleteAndrew- thanks
ReplyDeleteFully expecting scorchio earthio on this and Trump. Global economic disaster blamed on us.
"Fairly sure Parliament consented to all the European treaties. And all the others."
ReplyDeleteAfterwards, maybe. But before the negotiations even started? Because thats what this ruling is saying, the UK government can't even start the process of leaving the EU without express Parliamentary approval first. So will the UK government in the future be unable to use Royal Prerogative to negotiate Treaties without express Parliamentary approval first?
Cheer up Kev, it'll all come out in the wash.
ReplyDelete"thats what this ruling is saying"
ReplyDeleteNo, no it isn't.
@EK - just to cheer you up, if we do leave the EU, what with the minimum wage being incrementally increased every year, we should get record immigration in the next few years. Get in!!
ReplyDelete"No, no it isn't."
ReplyDeleteOk, what is it saying? In principle terms, not the specifics of this case.
www.google.co.uk
ReplyDelete"a snap election it is, with a 100-Seat majority"
ReplyDeleteSorry but I really do not buy this.
A snap election will be, in all but name, a second Brexit referendum.
I do not believe the result is anywhere near as easy to predict as you seem to think.
Corbyn may be a numpty, but the power of tactical voting should not be underestimated.