I really don't get the current Boris Strategy. My only explanation is he has been got at by the civil service who have outlined just how much doom there is in a no deal Brexit or it is a very cunning ruse to an election.
Yet that still seems where we are headed, the clever people in most of the media that I am reading currently are choosing to ignore some obvious points of parliamentary arithmatic:
1. Boris has a majority of -45
2. Labour won't vote en masse for Tory plans and most will only vote for Remain
3. SNP, Lib Dems etc will always and only vote for remain
4. Tory rebels will also only vote for remain.
Ergo, the deal, not matter how good, cannot pass. I suppose this is the part of the cunning plan, which is to get a deal, see it voted down and then by law have to seek and extension. Then have a General Election on the basis of his deal versus the remain coalition.
Either way, feels like No Deal is off the table unless the EU walk away first.
It feels like May all over again, albeit with a faster timescale. One difference is the ERG believe in Johnson - they have to as they own the project now - so they appear to be saying they'd swallow things if he serves them that they refused when it came from May. So what chance of a parliamentary majority with the sacked Tory rebels voting for a deal and the ERG on board, plus some Labour backbenchers come across because it's the last time to do it given the risk of a rise in support for a second referendum in parliament?
ReplyDeleteSwiss Bob - near zero i think. The Tory rebels are really remainers, so few votes there really. Maybe 5 or 6 Labour in reality now, again the waverers have gone remain. Where does Johnson get 20+ more votes from in a remain parliament?
ReplyDeleteSarah Newton (Con, Truro & Falmouth) suggested the Tories need a song, here it is:-
ReplyDeleteNice one Boris
Nice one son
Referendum
Let's have another one
Specially for Saturday 19th.
ReplyDeleteBoris is hanging on grimly.
I got 10/1 on the election being in December and ~3.5/1 being after that date, so huzzah for that.
Similarly Corbyn really does not want an election.
Basically he will be losing to a.n. other, whereas any competent pol would have gained a 100+ majority.
Quite seriously, until someone can articulate a positive vision of the future I do not see anything apart from time wasting happening. Boris is stumbling towards that, but not there yet.
He's trying to make everyone else look unreasonable. If the EU doesn't move too much, he can say "look, the blighters kicked old BoJo in the shins and did a runner", if it does and Parliament says "no", he can say "come on chaps, we got an agreement, got the immovable to move, you said we'd not get a deal, there'd be no change, and here we are, having done just that and you're moving the goalposts" and of Parliament says "yes" he's got the win.
ReplyDeleteThe song of the day is The Eton Rifles.
Looks like IR35 in the private sector is a go too after a bit of prevarication from Johnson, so that'll be 5 million votes he's spunked up a wall next election. Hope he's not planning on counting on them.
Yup. (To the original post)
ReplyDeleteAny thanks to Brexit voters for not kicking off and gluing themselves to airliners etc ?
Nah.
The insults keep on coming. Not an inch of movement on the things that caused Brexit. Instead things like this Ready Brexit spoof in which they continue to nullify our vote by calling us racists:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41_5fyqNbE8
And if this country really were full of racists then advertisers wouldn't dare fill *real* commercials with black people as they do now.
I’d have to check with you here. Which is not something I usually do! I enjoy reading a post that will make people think. Also, thanks for allowing me to comment!
ReplyDeleteLenovo Tab 4 black friday deals 2019