I mean, really troubled -? Obviously, China has done very well out of the pre-existing "free trade" regime (everything is relative). Obviously, the CPC (a) talks a good fight, and will always counterpunch stoutly as a reflex; and (b) ultimately doesn't mind imposing suffering on its people, provided the cause is sufficiently important strategically.
Whatever: they seem to have come to the table. Sometimes the calm, confident-sounding bellicosity is a face-saving reflex. Then again, Trump changes his story every day or so to maintain the spin on the wobbly plate of his bizarre policy-making, and is pretty keen on saving his own, errr, tanned face. And as neutral venues go, Switzerland looks a bit more of a western location than, say, Singapore or Dubai would have done. So far, so convenient for Trump's spin.
That said, there are a couple of other straws in the wind. Firstly, following Xi's appearance in Moscow - a priceless morale-boost for Putin, so we know where the balance of obligations should now lie - and to China's serious annoyance, Russian online media have been showcasing clips of a tic of Xi's: he was spotted in Moscow letting his head drop a bit to one side, seemingly an involuntary slump before bringing himself back upright again. It's been bruited about that this may be a sign of stroke, etc, yadder yadder. Well, maybe he was just bored stiff: people are always speculating about health and striving for clickbait opportunities ... but, hey, this is Xi, the sole arbiter of Putin's future, in Russia, being poked by Russian media.
And what it there's a soupçon of truth in it?
I'd say, the Taiwanese better start trembling. That man wants them in the bag before he goes. In all the crazy circumstances, who could be utterly amazed to wake up one morning to a fait accompli in the East China Sea? Tariffs or no tariffs.
ND
I suspect Xi wants to manage the tariffs - he will back down at the prospect of a popular rebellion - so this could just be a Seen to be Doing Something with no real desire to do a deal.
ReplyDeleteThere have been claims of Walmart stores will shortly be having empty shelves, although presumably not the firearms aisle. America's ports have been hit too, especially LA due to the well worn path of unloading goods there bound for Mexico, which are then frequently re-badged as Made in Mexico, before heading back into the US.
And speaking of firearms, Xi may bend at the prospect of his subjects getting uppity, but he's also not in charge of a nation where "Rooftop Voter" clothing is rather popular in some parts, and Trump's popularity has crated outside of his core vote, and even there the Constitutionalists have started to wobble as Trump asked if he was meant to defend it.
How much pain are US farmers and consumers willing to take compared to their Chinese equivalents?
I'd love to know the background on the US chiming in with India and Pakistan too, turns out Vance's "none of our business" foolishness quickly evaporates when the nukes are being prepared.
And what if there's a soupçon of coke in it?
ReplyDeletehttps://vinnews.com/2025/05/11/watch-french-media-denies-viral-cocaine-rumors-involving-president-macron-during-ukraine-trip/
Ah, the moral giants who rule us.
Was that the one with Merz and Starmer on the train with the plastic drink stirrer? The notion that Starmer was such a cokehead, he’d do a line with those two on the train from Kyiv! I’d almost like it to be true, just to make him less dull and tedious.
ReplyDeleteGoodness me, whatever has happened to the quality of clickbait? I remember when it was really good, not this kind of desperate stuff.
(we don’t give two hoots for the press having a laugh at politicians’ expense, but the Chinese, like many in Asia, regard having their “face” being saved as important, so there would be some unhappiness at fellow authoritarian government Russia not keeping its domestic media in properly check — unless Russia was in fact annoyed by something Xi had done and this was their way of showing it; pure Kremlinology of course, but everything old is now new again, so…)
Looks like yet another u-turn from Trump - or, to keep the MAGA crowd happy, the US executed a semi-circular manoeuvre to defeat China bigly in a HUGE WIN for the US. Let's see what happens in 90 days.
ReplyDeleteIt remains a mystery, then, why China accepted the residual 30% tariffs on their exports to the US (not to mention coming to the table in the first place rather than trying to maintain the “You’re Suffering Much More Than We Are And You’ll Have To Cave In Before We Do” stance) if this is a US u-turn?
DeleteNo Trump fan here, if he has a long term strategy for the US, it’s hard to discern it and it’s even harder to work out how his current actions are beneficial. But he’s shown that, even if the US doesn’t hold all the cards, it holds at least some of them.
@clive - I cannot speak as to the whys are wherefores, but China seems to have given nothing in return for tariffs dropping to an absorbable 30%, and the door open to reduce them further.
ReplyDeleteI'd suggest the contraction of last quarter, and the risk of a recession that only his core voters would swallow as the responsibility of Biden, made Trump blink.
As with the initial relaxed attitude to India/Pakistan, I suspect the iceberg of reality hit the Titanic of adolescent opinion.
True, but equally true is the US did absolutely nothing to warrant a reduction from something-ridiculous percent to 10% on its exports to China.
DeleteBloomberg (no friend of Trump either) is calling this a “trade truce” which seems about right.
And China has certainly changed it’s position since it was making these sorts of statements https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8dglmm5j52o.amp — whatever you might think of the truthfulness of the Trump administration, it was clearly right that China was talking to the US on this subject (and it was China that was lying).
A separate topic so I’ll split this point out, forgotten about for the moment is all this is the EU, labouring under a 27.5% effective tariff still.
DeleteOne thing we can read into Trump is he doesn’t appreciate (and doesn’t respond to) maximalist demands from intransigent counterparties.
Were that the UK government be so tough-minded negotiators.
China was feeling the effects of the tariffs they imposed on the US (not just those applied by the US) - see https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-waives-tariffs-us-ethane-imports-sources-say-2025-04-29/
ReplyDeleteInteresting analysis on how China is responding to Trump’s tariffs! The global trade landscape is definitely shifting, and businesses worldwide need to adapt—whether it’s adjusting supply chains or upgrading their digital infrastructure. Speaking of adaptation, companies in Dubai are also navigating economic changes by leveraging strong IT Support Dubai solutions to stay competitive. Would love to hear more about how tech and trade policies intersect in this scenario. Great read!
ReplyDeleteEntertaining bot contribution above! AI-generated, do we think?
ReplyDeleteI used to get those kind of messages on my blog posts back in 2008 so maybe not. AI might make things easier though, you can spam more threads with vaguely relevant stuff.
DeleteEven the Guardian is catching up with the equation J10C + PL-15 > Rafale + Meteor
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/14/pakistans-use-of-j-10c-jets-and-missiles-exposes-potency-of-chinese-arms
Hu Xijin, the former editor of the nationalistic Chinese state-linked tabloid Global Times, said the incident showed Taiwan should feel “even more scared”. Part of China’s contingency planning is an expectation that the US military and potentially others would be involved in defending Taiwan. Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Center, said the two combat theatres were not directly comparable, as a Taiwan invasion would probably involve more input from the navy, marines and army than this month’s limited conflict between India and Pakistan. “And technically, India did not use American weapon systems during this round,” Sun said. “But the surprising victory of Chinese J-10 and PL-15 [missiles] will force people to reconsider the military balance of power in the event of a Taiwan contingency.”
I remember a few years back, when one of these Chinese stealth fighters first came to light, one of our regular BTL contributors said it must just be an airframe that looks like a proper [i.e. US] stealth fighter, and strongly pooh-poohed the idea it could actually work ...
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