1. FIFA World Cup: winning team; golden boots winner(s); will Wales / N.Ireland / Rep. Ireland qualify?
2. Seeing as the man disappointed us last year: date of Starmer's first Cabinet reshuffle, per last year's definition**, with BPs for names etc
3. Name of UK Prime Minister on 24.12.26
4. Results of US Mid-terms 2026, both Houses
5. Prices of Brent oil in USD/Bbl; gold & silver in GBP/oz on 24.12.26
6. Joker: anything you have a canny idea is going to happen on the world stage in 2026, that can be expressed in a single sentence of ordinary length.
We'll skip Ukraine this time: strong likelihood of being too complicated to adjudicate.
Have at it below !
ND
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** "Cabinet reshuffle" = two or more changes to the Cabinet roster, unforced by resignation or death. Splitting of an existing Cabinet post into two or more new positions doesn't count per se - only if accompanied by reshuffle as defined above. By this definition there hasn't been one yet.
1) Unfashionable but I have a sneaking suspicion that England might do pretty well. For the first time in a long time we have a manager who seems to understand what he wants to do, and is picking players that fit his style of play, rather than just picking all the media darlings and trying to shoehorn them into a 'team'.
ReplyDeleteGB = Harry Kane, because if England do well he'll get some goals (and he takes penalties).
WC qualifiers: None of them get through.
2) Cabinet reshuffle: midsummer. Labour get a kicking in the locals, pressure builds on Starmer, cue another 'reset' before the summer break. Big ticket victim - Ed Milliband, as part of a 'save my skin' pivot by Starmer to water down net zero and try and stop the haemorrhaging of jobs and rising energy bills. Reeves survives, because any other vaguely suitable candidate would see it as a stepping stone to the top job.
3) Starmer hangs on, because no one else wants to be the one who wields the dagger, plus not easy to get rid of him if he digs his heels in.
4) US Midterms: Bad for Trump, loses both House and Senate. Immediate moves to impeach him for something (anything) made.
5) Brent Crude: sub $50/barrel, as some sort of end to Ukraine conflict brings more Russian oil onto the market. If the AI bubble bursts the subsequent downturn in the US could drop it below $40. Gold: £2400/oz. Silver £24/oz.
6) Joker: Musk withdraws X from the EU after his confrontation with the European Commission intensifies. Trump threatens to leave NATO as a result.
ReplyDelete1. FIFA World Cup: Scotland; McTominay;
Will Wales / N.Ireland / Rep. Ireland qualify?
Yes, yes, no.
(These are more a wish list than a prediction.)
2. date of Starmer's first Cabinet reshuffle: given the man's tin ear, April 1st.
3. Name of UK Prime Minister on 24.12.26
Mahomet Mahmoud Mehmet.
4. Results of US Mid-terms 2026, both Houses
The forces of population replacement triumph.
5. Prices of Brent oil in USD/Bbl; gold & silver in GBP/oz on 24.12.26. Not a lot, heaps, tons.
6. Joker: Armageddon.
1a. England. Venues have so far fallen nicely for them, and I'm expecting the non-European nations to do well exhausting the usual suspects, and there's the irony aspect - a German coached England, and Tuchel seems to have found the sweet spot between Southgate's man management and Capello's disciplinarianism.
ReplyDelete1b. Haaland. I don't expect Norway to get too far, but in the games they do win it'll be by a large margin with him bagging the most, whereas in the teams that get further along, scoring duties will be cross-team.
1c. Wales, which automatically means NI won't, and I'll go with a romantic yes for RoI, although realistically they've two hard games to do so.
2a. May 7th, after a drubbing in the locals he'll wait until after the following PMQs before doing the actual shuffle. Details leaked in the run up of course.
2b. Big Ange back in as Deputy PM and given the energy portfolio, Miliband to number 11 to keep him in the tent, pissing outwards, Reeves to Education, Phillipson and Lammy given some BS new ministerial posts to keep them onside.
3. Starmer. After May's bruising, there'll be an Ealing comedy attempt to remove him - let us call it the Labourkillers, where kindly old Keir has let a room out to some "musicians" - where one by one they'll fail, until finally Alec Guinness (played by Andy Burnham) gets knocked out in a by-election and falls out of politics.
4. Dems to take both houses, with Trump taking it with all the grace and charm of a Turner Prize winning entry. It won't be a whitewashing, as much as Trump has fallen down the poll ratings, it's not like anyone's excited by the Dems, so it's going to be picking which brand of cold vomit they fancy chugging down.
5a. Brent - around $50, demand will drop, and Venezuelan oil will hit the market fully towards year end. Possibly Iranian too.
5b. Gold - around $4800, at least one AI wobble is going to frighten the markets
5c. Silver - around $100, same reason as gold.
6 - serious. The AI bubble will wobble, prelude to a burst, but I don't think it'll happen this year, but it'll cause havoc in the markets and global economy.
6 - not-serious. Trump will exfiltrate Putin from Russia a la Maduro from Caracas...
1. U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!.
ReplyDeleteSuspect Infantino has already got the fix in. Probable FIFA Crypto luanch soon afterwards.
Golden Boot : Kane, mainly on pens and getting the third and fourth meaningless goals.
Wales, NI and the Republic? Maybe Wales, but, No.
2. Early May.
The question's definition is tricky, but going much later than that means closer to 24 months after the GE, with the preferred option for the next being 24 months later, May '28 (otherwise it's looks like he's hanging on, desperately waiting for An Event).
Reeves gets DPM. Streeting to the Treasury, Mahmood to Foreign Office, Lammy - DCMS (Happy Time for Reform and Badenoch), Benn to HO. Alexander to Work & Pensions, McFadden to Scotland. Kendall to Health. Onwurah gets DSIT, Beccy Cooper (Dr) Social Care.
Darren Jones - Out. Nandy, also out, but in less humiliating fashion. But she'll still join the LibDems. Then flip to Burnham anyway.
3. Miliband.
The Party's Constitution might produce some really weird situations if Starmer goes, but Miliband will be an attempt to keep HypnoBoob at bay, since I suspect most backbench Labour MPs were really attracted to the role by Corbyn/McDonnell. This would give a distinctly, interesting, dynamic within the Parliamentary Party, Badenoch's second Happy Time, and for policy, add in whatever Mamdani gets up to.
4. Err, Democrats take the House, slim majority. Republicans retain the Senate, 51 seats.
5. Brent : 63. Gold : 3450. Silver : 58. But, G&S are in Sterling, so add 3% if Miliband becomes PM by mid-October.
6. Dragonfire used operationally; Black Sea or Gulf by the RN, or in Ukraine, by the Ukrainians. Let's go with the RN, in the Gulf.
Extra fun; Chinese RISC-V and GPUs/TPUs/NPUs are announced to be deployed in a data centre in, ooh, Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan.
1. No idea, I gave up on football when money came into the game. (Even though I did find a £5 note in my boot one Saturday evening).
ReplyDelete2.After the May elections; if not the Stoma will complete his stay until 2037,when he dies.
3. Raynor or Burnham.
4. Dems only take one of two, prob the House.
5. No idea, I have even less knowledge than in 2.
6. Elon Musk is murdered.
I should add: DJT will kidnap the President of Venezuela.
ReplyDeleteThe world will wait, with bated breath, to see who kidnaps President Trump. But if the Dem party has any say in the issue they'll simply have him assassinated.
The Democrat Party has been sectioned; rather than retiring into a corner and licking their wounds, they fell on the grand policy of doubling down, and there seems no chance of that coming to an end soon.
DeleteNever mind the Mambo man in NY. He'll put Khan to shame.
Welcome to 2026!
1 World Cup moved to China after FIFA's last minute switch. "We barred Russia from competing, now to be fair we bar US from hosting" says Infantino, whose family are all moved to Tibet for their own safety. China beat Venezuela in final after most teams withdraw under US pressure. Golden boot - Wang Dang (PRC). Wales / N.Ireland / Rep. Ireland all withdrawn, Scottish independence support at 80% after Scottish FA withdraw, mobs destroy and burn Turnberry and Balmedie after Doonbeg in Ireland is wrecked.
ReplyDelete2. No reshuffle as government struggles to cope with FIFA fallout and Scottish dissent.
3. 2TK has clung to Trump's coat tails even as DJT's actions get wilder. He hangs on because Farage is in almost the same position. Green support doubles while Labour's collapses, Tories stay quiet.
3. Mid-terms, a shock Republican triumph as voters discover they like late Imperial Rome. Allegations of cheating by both sides.
4. Oil price low, precious metal high.
5. Wildcard - China takes Taiwan, world separates into Oceania vs EastAsia.
1. Italy / Kane / N.Ireland only
ReplyDelete2. 11 May
3. Starmer
4. Reps keep Senate, Dems get the House
5. 50 / 2,900 / 48
6. Trump's health looks, errr, ...
= = = =
2. doing it before 11 May creates a few more enemies for the post-locals crisis period; doing it any later misses the "refresh" opportunity (such as it is) & looks very weak. Details depend on outcome of locals: MMcS will be doing serious contingency planning / scenario-wargaming for weeks beforehand, see 'Mandelson' below. Rayner back into Cabinet on some pretext, but not just out-of-the-blue in March. Mahmood's chances depend on the numbers in the spring boating season. Am still fascinated by Miliband's progress
3. Labour has no idea how to do decapitations; and kings-over-the-water Burnham and Khan being on the outside muddies those waters tremendously until they reenter Parl - which assists Starmer. Mandelson will quietly be sending in loads of helpful advice (to MMcS, at least) and on such tactical matters he can be good value - unless he has a very settled horse in the race himself, in which case it will all be directed towards getting a win for his pick
5. the worse things get for Trump, the more he will use the oil lever (via Saudi / Venez / IOCs, which have belatedly recognised there is little downside to them getting back to what they are good at. Putin loses sleep over this, more than anything else: he believes the Venezuela thing is a prelude to a US-engineered oil glut.
The Preciousss ... On the charts alone (and I'm no chartist) they both look like screaming shorts right now (I have crystalised some stonking gains on silver just last week). But, hey, the world ain't getting any more predictable in 2026 ...
ot, some anon at Substack ... we're already seeing 1
ReplyDeleteWow consequences of a full scale invasion?
1) It’ll be interesting to watch the spastic gymnastics of the EU leaders and Sir Keir as they struggle for a response
2) America’s greatest ally will accelerate their ethnic cleansing and genocide of the native inhabitants of the territories they occupy, possibly using their new friend Somaliland to park those they haven’t butchered.
3) VVP would be mad not to clear the Black Sea coast and leave a few bits for Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.
4) Xi will be on the phone to Taipei in Mandrin and they will answer very very politely, I understand they converse in Mandarin.
5) The Japanese will turn the perfectly designed switch on their Prime Minister’s desk which gives them functioning nukes and delivery systems within 72 hours.
6) My investments will go down, President Trump’s friend’s investments will go up.
Also other consequences I haven’t dreamt of.
6) only. Trump resigns (or "resigns"). Ill health. (Cognitive impairment.)
ReplyDelete1. No interest in a bunch of overpaid arseholes kicking around a bag of wind. Still, maybe 2026 will be the year when the working man realises that gifting fucking imbeciles a fortune is not the best use of their hard earned cash (see also politicians).
ReplyDelete2. TTK will go early with a reshuffle to exert his authority - let's say Easter. Bearing in mind the fuckwits already in the cabinet, perhaps he'll being Diane Abbott back into the fold.
3. Two Tier Keir will still be there despite being the most useless PM in the history of the country. The alternatives being worse...
4. Results of US Mid-terms 2026, both Houses
5. Prices of Brent oil in USD/Bbl - $100 once there are more global shocks; gold & silver in GBP/oz - £3,000 and £75.
6. Joker: Europe collapses as the German economy disintegrates under a combination of stupid Net Zero policies and the politicians borrowing to hide the fact they have screwed things up.
Oops, 4. Both houses stay with the GoP.
Delete@ND - with the Venezuelan oil, isn't this the opportunity for the US to build a counter to OPEC?
ReplyDeleteI'm maybe giving the Tangerine One far too much credit, but given the current stresses on the Russian economy, also suggesting sinking oil prices is the kind of thing that might get Putin to take peace in Ukraine seriously, along with giving Tehran a few more stresses as one of it's foreign policies gets taken from it.
Alternatively, it could just be a strategic resource grab as the world reverts to a more imperial model. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
CH
CH - if we're giving the Orange One - or his entourage - credit for a modest degree of strategizing ... this needn't be a grab in the blunt, literal sense: trashing the price of oil could be an opportunity for the newly-reinvigorated IOCs (see above) to buy up reserves for another big commodities cycle**.
ReplyDeleteMafia behaviour, of course
Let's wait for Monday's prices ...
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** The BP of its peak, a few years ago, was made when John Browne bought Amoco, Arco and Burmah Castrol at $10/BBl, the bottom of the market, in the late '90s
You have to say Venezuela was a coup in every sense. Extremely well executed - an inside job of which everyone who counted seemed to be aware - except Maduro and those poor Cuban soldiers who did their duty and were killed for it.
ReplyDeleteMuch more sparing of human life than the Ukraine/Iran style sniper and street riot "colour revolution".
"The vessel of peace is leaking at every seam"
Anon 1:38am
ReplyDeleteThis article hits the matter on the mail for me
https://open.substack.com/pub/twinsilos/p/operation-absolute-resolve-how-trump
Trump has balls. And he gets things done. Compare and contrast...
Sources tell me - Starmer is at the moment rummaging around in his undies trying to find his...
https://open.substack.com/pub/twinsilos/p/operation-absolute-resolve-how-trump
It must be hard for the PM to realise he doesn't matter, for all his robot walking around whatevers anywhere else but here. Keir Never Heier
There's very little to stop the US taking Greenland if they really want, the Thule base is massive and many of Greenland's airports were originally USAF bases (though there's a Danish built network of STOL airports, part-EU funded).
ReplyDeleteDo you think Trump would dare? After all Starmer is "standing beside" Denmark.
DeleteHe seems to do a lot of standing beside these days.
BTW, the Hamasistan Embassy opened in London today.
If he stands beside Denmark he might drown in the Baltic. Either way it won't do much for Greenland.
DeleteI see TTK and Maricon have guaranteed troops for Ukraine, something Russia have already said they won't accept. Looks like 2026 will be 2025 on steroids.
Anon: @ already said they won't accept
ReplyDeleteIndeed: at the superficial level, this is headed for an ignominious re-run of one of last summer's famous Long Telephone Calls
"Mr President, did Putin agree to the ceasefire you want?"
"Nah, he said ceasefires don't work"
We are left wondering if the collective genius of Europe, Kushner and Witless has actually devised some kind of clever ploy. Starmer can't possibly want to have his bluff called, and be required to pour what remains of our Army and RAF onto the battlefield. Can he ..?
Oh of course he would. He's standing by Ukraine, never mind Denmark. Guess he's got a matter transmitter,
DeleteStarmer, clearly unable to do his two MAIN things - protect OUR borders, protect us, especially women and girls, would have no problem throwing away British lives in Ukraine..
There are no expletives left which truly describe this filth of a man.
US seizes Russian tanker off Scotland while Guardian commenters argue that Trump is a Russian agent ...
ReplyDeletehttps://kasperbenjamin.substack.com/p/the-real-reason-why-the-us-overthrew
ReplyDelete"Venezuela represents an existential threat to the petrodollar system, and by extension, to American global power itself.
Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves; 303 billion barrels, exceeding even Saudi Arabia’s 298 billion. And since 2018, Venezuela has sold 100% of its oil exports to China, with transactions settled in yuan, not dollars. Moreover, Venezuela became an official BRICS+ partner nation in 2024, gaining access to the bloc’s alternative payment systems, development financing, and diplomatic protection.
Here’s what makes this particularly dangerous from Washington’s perspective: Venezuela isn’t just surviving outside the dollar system; it’s functioning. Despite what the US Treasury Department characterizes as “unprecedented sanctions,” Venezuela has maintained oil production, secured financing, and sustained trade relationships. It’s become a living, breathing advertisement that the dollar system is optional, not mandatory.
The historical pattern is unmistakable. Iraq in 2000 announced it would accept only euros for its oil; Saddam Hussein was removed from power three years later. Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi proposed a gold-backed pan-African currency to replace the dollar for oil transactions; NATO intervened in 2011. Iran has sold oil in currencies other than dollars since 2012 and faces continuous sanctions pressure and repeated threats of military action. The message couldn’t be clearer: abandon the petrodollar, face consequences."
It's only tangential that all those countries were corrupt kleptocracies.
DeleteAnon - Libya was pretty well governed, GIVEN that it was full of Libyans. The Great Man-Made River was a boon and a blessing to Libyans.
Deletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Man-Made_River
What shall we do with the very full tanker
ReplyDeleteWhat shall we do with the very full tanker
Early in the morning.
Louisiana LOOP maybe or a Rotterdam refusal
But why bother, you've got control of who gets the next tankerloads from now on. I doubt the Chinese care much but the Cubans might - kicking off a humanitarian disaster down there.
1 random pick from the top ten, Argentina
ReplyDelete2 October, Rayner back in replacing Streeting
3 Still Starmer. Plenty of infighting but not enough numbers to oust him
4 No idea, Democrats take House, Republicans hold Senate?
5 oil at $60, gold 3800, silver 2300 ...not confident enough about those predictions to risk my money on them
6 Ukraine war still ongoing
SubOpt - that's a fairly punchy silver prediction there! I have a deal for you ...
ReplyDelete(obvs you meant kg, not oz)