The 'first draft of history' on this one is quite difficult to essay: the number of variables in play has been quite remarkable, and continues in the same manner. 4-D chess? Try 5 or 6. The consequences for Labour, in particular, are complex and highly contingent on many things. (Could have been even more amusing if Your Party had been at the races - and in future it might just be.)
But we'll all have some early thoughts. Here are a couple of mine:
- WTF was Reform doing, fielding a prize prat like Goodwin? Just about the worst candidate imaginable for fighting a working-class / Muslim seat. And Farage a man with his finger on the pulse? I have heard only two 'excuses': (1) this was always a big stretch for Reform - something like no. 440 on their list of potential targets, IIRC; (2) "Farage wanted to slap down a potential leadership rival" (yes, I've seen that surmised on the airwaves - but possibly a hypothesis born of the same bewilderment as my own).
- Obviously this is a Big Test for them / him, but right now I'd say Team Starmer is determined to tough it out. (No guarantee of success, of course.)
- Polanski will now be striving to get his lovable piss-artist act together properly - which may in turn piss off some of his "support" as he seeks to ditch the "our policy is dictated by Conference and the leadership is only allowed to parrot it" doctrine of the Greens: which can't possibly survive if he's to capitalise on this.
ND
I've reluctantly arrived at the conclusion that Matt Goodwin isn't a complete careerist driven solely by self interest but may actually have undergone a Damascene conversion. From the BBC and Guardian's favourite psephologist of the right to an actual candidate of the right. Still not a good pick for the constituency though.
ReplyDeleteA total careerist would have stayed as professor at Kent while keeping his GB news job.
Deletegreat
DeleteLabour needs to rethink that 'Diversity makes us Stronger' slogan.
ReplyDeleteLabour didn't pick a good candidate either, and the Greens have stolen the Lib Dems by-election playbook and tailored it accordingly.
ReplyDeleteIt shows that Starmer - and McSweeney - can't walk and chew at the same time, they either tack left or right, rather than select which way to lean on a per-issue basis. They tackle Reform, the Greens bite their left flank, and now they'll tackle the Greens leaving their right flank open for a Faraging.
Starmer still pretty safe, no one wants to be holding the bag in May, and Big Ange still has to hold fire due to the taxman.
We'll hear some nasally whining about listening and learning, maybe Reeves sacrificed on the altar of student debt, in an attempt to get them back onside, in yet another u-turn. Chancellor Ed front and centre by middle of March?
Reform still having issues trying to be an actual political party, Farage is great at being the chummy firebrand. but they're still struggling to find someone who can comfortably come across as a leader who Farage is willing to share the limelight with. Attempts to professionalise has already cost them some support, and the Greens are going to suffer the same issues.
Good analysis, Caeser too. Sooner or later, however true the other factors are, demographics are the elephant in the room.
ReplyDelete"demographics are the elephant in the room"
ReplyDeleteWith something like 30% of English births being "minority", votes at 16, and children being indoctrinated from nursery at three years old:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/think-equal-children-toxic-masculinity-london-schools-andew-tate-b1265361.html
“Children as young as three learn to reject toxic masculinity at nursery and primary schools in London”
Toxic masculinity only applies where no overriding religious system supersedes it. Especially one founded by a bandit with a penchant for rape and plunder whose followers consider to be the model example to follow.
DeleteAgree completely with the observation about Reform’s campaign ineptitude.
ReplyDeleteTo which I can only add: it was a lame tactic trying to play “The Mad Mullahs Are Trying To Take Over!” a) in that constituency and b) with a white woman candidate of a party led by a gay man. It’s just silly. That’s not to say that the mad mullahs aren’t trying to take over, there’s definitely some that are, but that’s not going to appeal to either Conservative or Labour potential defectors.
Sure, you can blow a dog whistle. And sure, the dogs will look up and come your way. But what if the target you need are the cats?
Similarly, Reform’s campaign ineptitude my area for the local elections is just as inept. Cheers for actually pushing a leaflet through my door. That’s more than some do. But boos for the contents which were nothing at all to do with anything at stake in the local elections, it was personally politics on how Farage was better than Starmer. People just want the pot holes fixed and the town centre rezoned from commercial to mixed use residential to clear the glut of empty shops (most of which are in pretty fine Regency or Victorian townhouses anyway). Oh, and the Conservative candidate in my ward did have the courage to knock on doors and speak to voters. That’s what wins these things.
Reports of several family members of a particular religious group being permitted to go into the voting booth together, something which is not allowed under electoral rules, suggests that this election was being played. If the protests are ignored, expect more of this in May, only nationwide. Popcorn time, I think.
ReplyDeletePenseivat
So much easier in postal votes, where you can arrange everything at a local "community centre".
DeleteWatching what happens with Shabana Mahmood should be interesting too. She's something of a bete brune to Labour's left, so will she be sacrificed too in the pivot? In which case, she may just be the one who starts the leadership challenge.
ReplyDeleteWith the family voting, this has been something going on for a years, and like other councils Manchester is happily turning a blind eye rather than risk offence. It won't end well, but it'll take a few years to filter through.
The progressive concept of allies is pretty much The Enemy of My Enemy... not only opens them up to accusations of hypocrisy, but assumes a minority of a minority is representative of the whole, and they may want to consider what happens after their mutual enemy is dealt with. My money is not going on the sledgehammer-wielding, keffiyeh wearing, vegans winning that particular cup final.
OT, but I just ordered a bit more heating oil, despite the 10% higher price than last summer. Israel have announced that this Sabbath (Saturday to us) channel 14 will transmit 'free air' i.e. nothing - just in case there are any "important announcements", and the religious authorities have approved (as long as you switch it on before the Sabbath starts, obviously).
ReplyDeleteYup, my beloved filled our car's tank this afternoon.
DeleteAs for the Greens, there was - until shortly before my lifetime - a German political party with avid green policies and the support of insane anti-semites. But our greens seem to lack the nationalist part of Nazi policy. I suppose instead they have a policy of intellectual frivolity.
I like Matt Goodwin but Maggie Oliver would have been wonderful as reform candidate
ReplyDeleteGood catch, dearieme & anon @ 3:18
ReplyDeleteWhatever happened to "no more wars" Trump ?
ReplyDeleteMr Trump has a bit of a puzzle knowing which bits of Iran to wreck. Can be crushed any time, but the High Tollers have been doing a perfectly good job since the Shah was chucked out. Best left in place - see Napoleon.
ReplyDeleteThen we don't really need anything Iran has and the place makes a useful foil to Israel and keeps Pentagon funding going. What is not to like.
China needs Iranian oil though. Wonder how the expats in Abu Dhabi are feeling?
ReplyDeleteExpectation is that Iran is going to start triggering their assets in the region, and if it goes on any length, globally.
ReplyDeleteThe US hasn't a great record in regime change, and given how the IRG have knotweeded themselves throughout the Iranian economy, they'll likely have the upper hand if Trump succeeds.
Meanwhile Bibi has managed to get yet another US President to do his bidding.
CH
I suppose we can all agree that It Is No Coincidence that this attack follows on the heels of the by-election result in Manchester. I dare say der Sturmer phoned his puppet Trump and ordered the go-ahead.
ReplyDeleteYou're quite wrong. Sturmer's order was intended to make a big distraction from the Mandelbum affair.
DeleteNo, your're both wrong. Russian asset Trump attacked Russia's ally in a brilliant piece of 5d maskirovka.
DeleteThe theory is
1. Get Trump and Bibi to kill lots of Iranian schoolgirls.
2. ???
3. Profit!
It's possible that Reform's real goal in Gorton & Denton was to draw attention to corrupt practices like "family voting". One of the ways that Labour and other left-wing parties will try to stop Reform winning a General Election is to mobilise sectarian block votes against them. Therefore, Reform needs to make this a national issue well before then.
ReplyDeleteA Labour government is unlikely to do anything to stop it, unless it becomes obvious that the party will lose more than it gains from it. But if it's something that everyone knows about, and which is openly discussed, then Reform can openly promote tactical voting to counter it.
Of course, there is also a danger that the Green success in G&D will trigger a bidding war between the left-wing parties for the support of the "community leaders" who control the block votes.
If the result had been closer, this would have been a good tactic but even if a fifth of the total number of estimated Muslim voters on the electoral roll turned up at the polls and were subject to family voting, the Green margin of victory was still greater than that.
DeleteMuch more relevant was possibly that the Muslim population simply got the vote out. Core Conservative and Labour voters seem to simply stay at home, Reform didn’t entice enough of them out to make a protest vote.
Question linked to the name of the blog - how do we see the stock markets reacting on Monday? Might be it's all over by then, in which case it'll probably not impact very much. However, an extended period of war/instability in the Middle East might just be the push required to pop the current stock market bubble. How should one position for this? Long oil? Short tech? Bit of both?
ReplyDeleteI already went long heating oil on Friday, ordering at 60p/litre.
DeleteFarage foolishly tweets
ReplyDelete"The Prime Minister needs to change his mind on the use of our military bases and back the Americans in this vital fight against Iran!"
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2027693784310710744
If I were Starmer I'd make hay with this ...
@ND I recall you mentioning discussions about keeping Trump in power, was war with Iran on the playlist?
ReplyDeleteThe Iranians seem to be leaving their nastier stuff alone for now, so either it doesn't work, or they're hoping to degrade the defences of Israel and the US naval ships before having at it.
If the latter, that could get unpleasant for us all.
Attributed to Good Queen Bess: I do not like war. The outcome is uncertain and the expense is great.
ReplyDelete