So are there any substantive negotiations taking place, as Trump avers? Or "talks"? Or even "talks about talks"? Well something, probably: but there's very good reason to be genuinely confused rather than just plain disbelieving.
Here's a first-hand story.
Back in the mists of time, when dinosaurs (Saddam, Khomeini etc) roamed the earth, I was working for a US oil company. Then, as now, there was an American embargo on selling stuff to Iran; but the Iranians needed specialised oil products that they were unable - strange though this may sound - to produce locally themselves: and somehow we had State Department approval to sell it to them. But it had to be done very discreetly.
Negotiations commenced, in London and Hamburg, with no American staff members involved. There were several difficult issues to resolve, so it wasn't a simple horse-trade on price; and the whole thing was quite drawn-out. We had an OK working relationship with our Iranian opposite numbers.
Then one day another Iranian turned up unannounced at our London offices and sought a meeting: he knew all our names & telephone extensions. We hastily convened, and he laid out on the table all the paperwork relating to the deal, announcing that we would be dealing with him from now on. Being somewhat taken aback, we were entirely non-committal and progressed nothing beyond making a few notes. Upon his departure we called our previous contacts, who told us to have nothing to do with this individual, and that the whole episode was "a mistake" and should be forgotten.
We could only conclude there were competing middle-men in play and that in this murky world, copies of the paperwork could be procured for a price. The complicated deal eventually came to completion after several more weeks.
But not without another remarkable episode. With a particularly knotty issue being thrashed out, one of our interlocutors suddenly leaned forward and said in agitated tones: you must concede this point to me, otherwise my family will be arrested!
I have been in many a difficult & protracted negotiation, including with Russians and Chinese counterparties. But this is not a gambit I have met, before or since. I have to tell you that we politely ignored his personal anxieties (genuine or otherwise) and proceeded with getting to the ultimate handshake by more conventional horse-trading.
Yes, customs & practices in that part of the world are, well, a bit different (I could tell you other stories about dealing with Arab counterparties - and Russians** & Chinese, too.) For all his vaunted "New York real-estate expertise" Steve Witless-Dummkopf doesn't look to me like the kind of person who'd be much good at figuring out what's really going on. Heaven help us all.
ND
_________________
** The critical trap with Russians is their readiness to fall silent in meetings for very sustained periods of time - the record in my experience was something like 45-50 minutes: a tactic designed to make the other side's nerve crack & offer just any concession they can think of to break the apparently awful deadlock. Well, if that's all you are made of, it'll work every time. But 'silence implies nothing' is the operative axiom. Oh, and never get stuck with a firm homebound airline booking (which most people do, just to get out of the miserable surroundings). They'll back you up against it every time.
Excellent story, ND, even if I disagree with you I always enjoy your analysis. Interesting to see you don't rate Witkoff.
ReplyDeleteH
In Thailand the main man is always sweetness and light and you think things are going swimmingly. He or she then hands over to his assistant and the real horse trading begins. Head honchos don’t like confrontation are argument that is what the hired help does. Actually in Thailand it is just as likely to be a honcharina at the top and they are usually very much in charge.
ReplyDeleteCharles
The story about Russian negotiation tactics reminded me of this excellent podcast.
ReplyDeletehttps://engelsbergideas.com/podcast/ei-weekly/iuliia-osmolovska-on-how-russia-negotiates/
That's indeed a great podcast - so accurate. (Is it an AI narrator? & all those bullet-point lists she reads out)
DeleteI note with amusement that tactic #1 covered there is ... long periods of silence! Also the capitalising on pressure of time
Listen to that, and then imagine how pathetically inadequate Witless-Dummkopf is in such a negotiating forum.
The more intelligent Americans, if coming to this for the first time, recognise they don't stand a chance. (I was sent to Moscow - see various C@W posts - by my American bosses, precisely because they reckoned a Brit might fare a bit better. I could tell so many stories of deliberately-staged negotiating events that would have sent the typical American exec completely mad with incomprehension, disbelief and rage) There are of course plenty of perfectly competent American "old Russia hands" - but so many US execs reckon they can just breeze in and, errrr, "cut a deal". Now where have we heard this ..?
Good story ND.
ReplyDeleteWhat has amazed me over the last five years or so is the complete willingness of the entire EU and UK political class (bar a couple of outliers in the east of Europe) to cut off our energy noses to spite "full-scale invasion" (TM) Putin's face. I'm always told that "it's the economy, stupid", but it isn't when politics/ideology gets in the way, even as the factories shut down and the work moves to the Far East.
I note we're not sanctioning the US or Israel ... nor did the world sanction us after Iraq.
You mean, like, Putin will not artificially throttle pipeline gas supplies to Europe — in the middle of winter ! — again https://www.martenscentre.eu/blog/how-gazprom-manipulated-the-eu-gas-market/ or suffer any more of those bothersome technical issues that, gosh, darn it, of all the bad luck, just so happen to strike at the worst possible time https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/gazprom-announcement-reduce-nord-stream-gas-flows-could-jeopardise-german-storage-target ? The man’s too generous for his own good!
Delete(on a more serious note, at some point, Russia is going to have to develop a sane relationship with the rest of the world and start to be able to communicate its aims and objectives and, indeed, hopes, for what it would like to happen without defaulting to laughably bad, easily falsified lies like that little bundle you dropped on us above; if only for the sake of its own collective sanity — now’s as good a time as any, I’d say, really)
"The rest of the world" is where most of the economy is these days, and I'm not aware that they have poor relations with Russia.
DeleteEven China is dragging its feet for decades over the Russia / China natural gas pipeline https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-pipeline-deal-with-china-seen-taking-decade-boost-exports-2025-10-07/
DeleteNo one with a functioning brain cell wants anything to do with Russia as an energy partner. China is not always the sharpest knife in the draw, but it knows enough to realise it’s better off taking its chances with Iran than the have any serious energy dependency on Russia.
And it’s not just China getting cold feet about Russia’s apparent generosity in energy supply. Despite demand from Europe collapsing, even other markets have decided that Russia is simply not worth the hassle of trying to deal with it https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66044
DeleteReally, if you’re going to try spouting Kremlin talking points, best find another outlet for it than a blog frequented by energy traders. We do tend to, how shall we say, have a lot of experience on shills and grifters trying to sell us a bill of goods.
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-is-quietly-playing-a-crucial-role-in-the-iran-war-aad34a00
ReplyDeleteWhile many European leaders have publicly decried the U.S. attacks on Iran, behind the scenes their military bases are facilitating one of the most logistically complex operations the U.S. military has been involved in for decades. In recent weeks, U.S. bombers, drones and ships have been fueled, armed and launched via bases in the U.K., Germany, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece, officials say.
Got any stories about Prosperity Gospel, fucked up Calvinist Yanks?
ReplyDeleteSeems he's already had 'is gift.
I particularly enjoyed Trump stating he couldn't say who they were negotiating with, on the basis Israel would kill them if he did.
ReplyDeleteAt this point we appear to be in a Monty Python sketch.
CH
We've written several times over the years of how little change Putin gets out of China. This is a recent one:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2023/03/xi-highlights-putins-pipeline.html
... and there are links in there to others, and the 'Gazprom' tag you can open up (then search on 'China')
I must say I'm surprised that all is peaceful in Taiwan, but I imagine China are getting lots of useful info from their intel ship. Their strategy seems to be to wait ... and wait ... while all the favourable factors continue. Is Trump restoring US manufacturing? I am extremely doubtful that a 40 year project can be reversed in four years.
DeleteI imagine China don't trust Russia but will keep them vertical because they know they'd be next, and selling cars and solar panels is generally better than fighting uncertain wars.
I may not be around to see it, but I'd be very surprised if Chinese global hegemony was better for Europeans than American hegemony.
What more would you like the US to do in terms of manufacturing?
DeleteIt’s already operating at maximum capacity by any of the usual measures. It’s quite happy to leave China as a bottom feeder, meanwhile it dominates in:
1. Aerospace and Defense-
The US is the global leader in commercial and military aerospace, producing high-precision aircraft, engines, composites, and systems.
Key strengths: Commercial aircraft (e.g., Boeing), jet engines (GE Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney—US firms produce a dominant share of global high-performance engines), and defense systems.
Global edge: Superior innovation in advanced materials, avionics, and hypersonics; the US exports more high-value aerospace products than any other nation. China lags significantly in complex, certified aerospace systems.
2. Semiconductors and Microelectronics-
US firms dominate design, core IP, and advanced architectures (especially AI, quantum, and high-performance computing chips), even as fabrication capacity has shifted offshore. US-headquartered companies command ~50% of global semiconductor revenues and lead in electronic design automation (EDA) tools. China excels in mature nodes and volume (but Japan and South Korea also compete in these areas aggressively) and trails in the most advanced logic chips due to export controls.
3. Pharmaceuticals and Biopharma-
The US is the undisputed global leader in biopharmaceutical innovation and high-value manufacturing of complex drugs (e.g., biologics, gene therapies, oncology treatments). The US accounts for ~50% of global pharmaceutical spending by value (the largest single market) and produces more than half of the world's new medicines over the past decade.
4. Other Key Areas of US Leadership-
Medical Devices and Precision Instruments. Advanced Materials, Chemicals, and Clean Tech: Leadership in specialty chemicals, composites, batteries (via IRA investments), and sustainable processes. Clean-technology (manufacturing investments hit records in 2024). Smart/Industry 4.0 Manufacturing (US firms lead in software integration and data-driven factories, even if raw robot deployment density trails China’s.)
Shorter: no-one, anywhere, it going to trust China with their most valuable IP. They know it would be pilfered before the factory had even opened.
In negotiations with any Islamic country, the word 'taqiyya' should always be borne in mind. This allows the deliberate lying, even if given on oath on the koran, if that lie deceives the enemies of Islam (and all non muslims are seen as enemies of islam), and furthers the cause of that religion. Over the years, Iran has reassured the world that their actions are peaceful and the world then discovers they are processing military grade uranium and developing inter continental ballistic missiles capable of teaching the UK. I would also suggest that both Russia and China have their own form of taqiyya. They can all afford to play the long game because their rulers are not constricted by time based government heads, knowing that, in a few years, those enemy countries will have a new leader, probably with new policies, which they can, and will, take advantage of.
ReplyDeletePenseivat
"Oh, and never get stuck with a firm homebound airline booking ... They'll back you up against it every time."
ReplyDeleteIs that a subtle allusion to the approaching mid-term elections?
Meet CLIVE 12:51, your friendly AI-driven bot, coded by CLAUDE.
ReplyDeleteBullet lists a speciality.
A bit rich coming from Mr Anonymous who never lets a single fact sully any of their missives.
DeleteI resemble that remark. Anonymous contains multitudes, and that was another anonymous.
DeleteWell, anyway, this is the way the internet works now hun -- anyone who makes a slanted, selectively-framed comment that omits key facts and then gets all evasive when these are pointed out is vulnerable to technological disruption making it difficult to accomplish such low-effort influencing attempts.
DeleteJust literally a couple of clicks and a "what context and relevant information is omitted here?" question in any of the search engines gives reams and reams of information which has a boomerang effect on those seeking to hoodwink -- you end up making a much better rebuttal than you would have thought of had you not had such a biased, one-sided load of nonsense to respond to in the first place.
If you squint at it hard enough, you can even deduce that Peskov was alive to the hazard in having a repetitive, lazy and predictable pool of content creators trying to burnish Russia's credentials (https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/07/11/so-we-don-t-end-up-back-in-the-days-of-rabid-meduza).
Darn right, Pesko -- the dreary, leaden and worst of all dumb people who serve as Russia boosters have simply lost the knack of how to debate and devise winning arguments or respond to inevitable critiques. You're simply out of your depths in an AI-augmented online environment and really should up your collective games.
Slightly OT, I'm reading that Trump's team are preparing contingency plans for $200 a barrel oil, and I'm told "the price has hit that level only once in the last half-century — in 2008 just before the global financial crisis".
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/trump-team-examines-what-oil-as-high-as-200-a-barrel-would-mean
Now in 2008 I was still commuting to work, but the only time I really noticed fuel prices being high was in Aviemore in February, where IIRC diesel was around 125. But it's never cheap up there.
Looking here for diesel
https://www.gov.uk/csv-preview/68a3326b32d2c63f869343a3/weekly_road_fuel_prices_2003_to_2017.csv
diesel pump price never went over 133 and was back at 99 by year end
Can one of you fuel and energy gurus explain ? OK, the duty rate was lower (45p/l), but that wouldn't account for the fact that you didn't need a mortgage to fill up.
@ OT Anon:
ReplyDeleteThe highest that oil has ever been was $147 (MOTD) in 2008 - but this was the spikiest of spikes and it fell back to $30-ish (thirty!) shortly thereafter.
I am willing to believe that is broadly equiv to $200 today, can't be arsed to do the calc
The reason pump prices didn't mirror this is simple - the peak price probably related to a single cargo before it came all the way back down the hill again.
There was a previous spiky peak at $40, back in 1990 when Saddam invaded Kuwait. I was actually at the next desk to the trader who sold that very cargo, @ $40.00 (it's possible there might have been a few more at exactly the same moment - but trading, as always in spikes, was very thin).
This was just before I rejoined the Colours to do battle with Saddam ... (see here http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2020/08/saddam-in-kuwait-30-years-on.html - and hit the "Kuwait" tag if interested in the rest of the story.
2:25 pm