So: seeing himself increasingly caught up in a thorny thicket of unwanted and very awkward controversy, Nigel Farage has Taken The Initiative. Well, an initiative.
Long-time readers will know that I place great store on proactive, creative initiative-taking. It's not as common a trait as you'd expect or hope, and that includes most of our "leaders", the vast majority of whom are governed strictly by whatever rulebook and conventions they were brought up with. It's a pretty poor show when Peter Mandelson is the prime example of a relentlessness initiative-taker - always aware of the very many levers that are within grasp, and using them imaginatively. Elon Musk is another.
In its rarity and political importance, initiative-taking shares aspects in common with the ability to strategise. Again, you'll know my views on this and the example I often cite, George "Boy Genius" Osborne. Clearly, the man is a natural strategiser - of the inveterate student-politics kind; and we could add Dominic Cummings and Morgan McSweeney to the short list of UK political thinkers - but that's not enough. What's needed, of course, is good strategy, and Osborne wasn't great at that (never ideal in a Chancellor of the Exchequer). Any old strategy taken from some well-thumbed playbook isn't always enough; and military history is replete with fatally bad strategisers.
And so it is with initiative: Farage needed a good one, and it's not at all clear this is it. What do we reckon?
ND
If there is anything in play that might be a risk for Farage, I think we can rely on the other party leaders to fuck it up. If not, I think we can rely on the other party leaders to fuck it up.
ReplyDeleteFarage apparently didn't stop to think the other main parties might not want to play his game, so he'll be facing off against Binface, Monster Raving Loonies, and any local indies.
ReplyDeleteIt's going to be a circus.
He also appears to have a similar lack of wisdom as ex-Prince Andrew when it comes to accepting monies from people. Someone who laundered money for drugs gangs? Not a great look for anyone complaining about our policing and courts.
The interest in crypto and some of the council antics have cooled me on Reform, his True Believers still.excuse behaviour they'd skewer anyone else for though.
CH
Has there ever been a proper investigation of that plane crash that nearly killed him a few years ago? If not should he demand one?
ReplyDeleteShould I persuade some pals to stand as "Independent Labour" and "Independent Conservative"? That'd give people an incentive to turn out and vote against them.
ReplyDeleteOr even "Starmerite Labour". Heh, heh.
DeleteThat would be funny - "I stand for the policies of Kier Starmer"
Delete"What are they?"
"Err.. I dunno, apart from blindly supporting Israel"
and Burnhamite Labour and Corbynite Labour.
DeleteI’m giving it a B-
ReplyDeleteWhere it’s strong is in a reassertion of the voters at the centre of politics. Politicians often hide from the voters and it always looks both obvious and bad. Whatever else we can say, Farage is putting his fate in the hands of the people. No PR spin, no message grids, no taking heads on TV fan get in the way of that (fairly pure, honest) relationship between the electors and the elected.
It also short-circuits anything the parliamentary standards committee can do to try to defenestrate Farage procedurally like they succeeded in doing with Johnson. What if they force a recall petition? Making the voters vote again when they’d just (assuming here they did) elected Farage shows these sorts of attempts at back-room stitch-ups as the silly, contrived and self-serving mechanisms they are.
But while it is doing something — and something had to be done for Farage given the givens — it still doesn’t alter the fundamental misjudgment of accepting the gifts in the first place. It was grabby and shabby and totally avoidable.
Hard to know with Farage - is he doing strategy or tactics. Does he even have a long term plan other than survival.
ReplyDeleteHe has about another 15 years if the big C don't get him. Which on current showing does not leave room for a credible build up and a shot at PM. For him the long-term is merely a concatenation of short terms. I really don't see him or Reform going anywhere. Not that the others are doing much either. That is another essay entirely.
Keep taking the money and advertising the gold bars and the money will roll in. But any regard or respect is lost. I guess he will go on as the maverick until he gradually fades away.
An outside chance is some big political upset, bring in the IMF Commissioners or similar. But a small chance, no one really wants the apple cart upset - too comfy - keep the revolving door turning slowly.
Farage is doing his usual. He has climbed the hill (see inter alia UKIP, etc.) looked over the top and is now on the downhill slope. Peak Reform has been done, all is now street theatre. Return to Lab/Lib/Con Cosy Club now in the offing.
ReplyDeleteChris - I think what you are outlining is a high-probability scenario. We've mused here before that peak Reform has come and gone: polling after the Conference season will be instructive, as there are two such "revivalist" factors in play: the anticipated Burnham effect, and the bizarre poll this week that shows Badenoch's approval rating higher than Burnham's. (To be fair, she's been playing her poor hand rather well of late: there's someone with stamina.)
ReplyDeleteBut the kaleidoscope hasn't quite settled back to just three primary colours. The Greens are fairly well placed right now, and Restore is a very strange phenomenon. How exactly they both play their hands, and the timing of them being washed away by (in your scenario) the waters closing back over, is critical. Plenty of time till the next scheduled GE.
Burnham's decision-making around GE timing could be a complex matter.
Restore Britain have the policies that Reform voters wanted. Not the watered down ex-Tory version.
DeleteVery true; there are many imponderables and I'm not putting my money anywhere at the moment with the exception of one angle. The capability of Mr. Polanski making himself look an utter buffoon at the most inopportune moment is a bet worthy of a fiver.
ReplyDeleteFarage, should have been tighter on some of it, but the money isnt a huge "sleaze" but the by-election decent move as even without other parties, (makes them look weak) and for the Greens a major tactical error by not fielding a candidate as the 'new' and 'only' opposition to stop evil Reform. The Tories will remain a busted flush, Labour still scum elected on 20% despite and pretend Burnham bounce. Doesn't mean all plain sailing Farage, but not the mainstream talking points they pretend.
ReplyDeleteH
PS the murder of Ann Widdecombe will make the I needed the cash for my security more poignant.