Saturday, 18 August 2007

Don't listen to the cleverclogs; stay out of the markets!

Many thanks to ND for is excellent posts this last week with me being otherwise occupied. May they long continue. Although I have been rather busy, I did notice the rather large problems occurring in the stock markets of the world this week.

The most obvious points to remember are that many people in the markets are on holiday, so much of what is going on does not reflect true market sentiment., We have to wait for September to understand what is actually going to happen in the rest of the year. Secondly, until it is worked out who actually holds all this bad debt that has been issued on the back of dodgy US home loans, there will be rumour and change for some time to come.

So in short, the markets remain very volatile and prone to sharp falls on rumour alone.

This has not stopped those who should know better from encouraging people to get into the market; a little bit like recommending favourite cliffs to Lemmings.


Anonymous said...

Spot on yet again! Just wait to see what happens in September for a clearer picture, even then be cautious.

James Higham said...

Agree completely and I've been advising just that from all we've seen.

Anonymous said...

Volatile suggests they can may jump erratically either way, so I think it is the wrong descriptor.

The Fed chucking massive amounts of cash at the problem, and I bet Brown does the same (ignore Darling, he's an irrelevance) is only a very short term fix and will only stabilise them for as long as it takes for the profit to be taken after a week or two.

I think I want to change my mind and think the market will fall way below the 6k mark.

All hail cash!

Steven_L said...

I haven't noticed any effect on consumer spending.

I slammed my more than my full quota of accounts at work today.

Don't worry, us slammers will keep things moving.

Anonymous said...

Thank goodness I own nothing and have no money - otherwise I would be worried...

Steven_L said...

I've got no money. Actually I've got £40 until I get paid on the 25th.

I've got some cigaritos to smoke too.

I'm well impressed with this crash stuff, just today I scared the living daylights out of some poofter at work by making him suspect his building socitey might have the wrong position in dodgy trailer trash mortgages.

The look on their faces when you explain in laymans terms what's happening is funny...

When I get paid I'm going to buy some malt whisky.

CityUnslicker said...

Ken/JH - Thanks.

SHot - The markets could still go up, it all depends how much risk the hedge funds want to get into. The rallies prove there is the liquidity for the moment. i don;t think it will last.

Also I must do a follow up poll for Sept 1st!

CityUnslicker said...

Steven-L - I think the slow donw on consumer spending has beenin play for some time and will get worse as the interest rate rises bite. These always take time to feed into the system.

Steven_L said...

The thing is, they have no idea they are spending. I phone the daft sods up 'the make sure your account has been set up correctly'.

Now as far as I'm concerned, if the retailer hasn't slammed their account with photo bundles it's not set up correctly. So I slam their account with photo bundles.

No-one gets itemised bills anymore and it takes 20 minutes to get through to customer service. Don't worry I'll keep them spending.

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