Returning to the Baltics

Just back from a round trip, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania - determined to get there, perhaps for the last time, before Putin does.  It might have been a closer-run thing than we'd anticipated. 

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When I was based in Moscow in the mid 1990s, I also had a pied-a-terre office in Riga [LVA], so in a dated fashion I am somewhat familiar with that city.   The building was gone - it had been the Latvian Konsomol HQ - and replaced by something very mundane: but its twin on the opposite corner is still standing, so you get the idea. 

Site of Drew's office: back then it looked like its twin on the left

In all three countries, Russian can still be heard spoken (far more in Riga than anywhere else) but support for Ukraine is very great.   In May, Putin took powers to use the army to “protect Russian citizens” abroad and appealed to the UN Court of Justice to demand the Baltic states, particularly Latvia, be held to account for “infringing on the rights of Russians”.    The sabre-rattling is there for all to hear. 

Well, one of his massive strategic errors was to treat so very badly those parts of the 'pro Russian' Donbas he seized in 2014: you have to be an extremely Russophile Russian-speaker to want the same for your own region.   In the lovely university town of Tartu [EST] a museum attendant advised me to keep my (modest) knowledge of Russian to myself. 

But could the Baltics be defended?   It's perfect tank country, flat as a pancake: the highest 'mountain', Suur Munamägi [EST] is only 1,000 ft. The population is sparse, and declining in each country[1].  The first is true of both Sweden and Finland, of course, and nobody mistakes them for a pushover. But defensively their geographical advantages are great.  The Baltics by contrast have a hideously long land border with Russia / Belarus; far less defensive depth; the anomalous bastion-state of Kaliningrad to their south; and something of a fifth column, however small, in each country.  In terms of the usual Russian strategy - a lightning land-grab, promptly fortified and never to be returned, with rachet-increments planned thereafter - only the full force of NATO could offer protection.  And that means more than just a plausible strong Polish counter-thrust from the south and some Ukrainian drone-warfare savvy.  Yes, we saw NATO troops and aircraft everywhere, but not in vast numbers. 

Frankly, 'defence' here means an exceptionally fast and large-scale counter-mobilisation during a buildup period[2], plus a credible nuclear deterrent: sanctions have already been pretty much maxxed out.  If Putin survives another decade in his present frame of mind, and if he doesn't believe our red lines (we've never believed his), there's little hope. 

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As if to reinforce these gloomy thoughts, two weeks ago the F16s and Typhoons were circling Vilnius [LTU] as we arrived and the airport was briefly closed.  At midnight a day later, up on our phones flashed a (Lithuanian) government alert message - 'Find safe place'.  The drone in question was promptly shot down and the all-clear given; but there were squads of soldiers on the street the next morning. 

Certainly takes the edge off a holiday trip.  A great shame, because the weather was good, the insects not oppressive (other than in Riga), we saw some beautiful sights and met some great people.   In principle, we'd also like to go back again - a great deal more to see.  Can we hope that a Burnham - Miliband government will contribute meaningfully to strengthening the West's collective position? 

ND 

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[1] Also declining in Russia, of course - and most everywhere else in Eastern Europe. 

[2] And who else in Europe believed the very specific US / UK intelligence warnings in 2021-22? Blinkered hope reigns eternal.

 

AI escapes

The other day our friend CH noted BTL (and OT, but let's not worry about that): 

... We can now create virtual Von Neumann machines comprising of those AIs, who can scale and network as well as reason around any guardrails, and so are clear to cheat their way to solutions without the sentience to weigh consequences as we would. Not they can't reason consequence, but is done as an exercise in cold logic. This is actually more dangerous than a SkyNet - it's swarms of savants looking to achieve aims without any moral or ethical boundaries, and with no higher scope of understanding. And given IT has been a lot of bodged jobs, minimal security, and all connected via a global network that itself can be hijacked at scale, we've quite the recipe for disaster ...

So let's have at it.

I have seen the AI escape likened to covid, and explicitly contrasted with climate change.  The former was on everyone's radar for a few weeks, while we all wondered what would happen next ...

I haven't seen it likened to the financial crash of 2008.  Here at C@W, we signposted that in 2007, so perhaps the run-up period is about right.    But where is Gordon Brown to save the world now ..?

ND

Russian elections this month - exciting!

[Spoiler alert - contains election result]  

The exciting prospect of a Russian election is upon us!  Not the Presidential this time, but the Duma and lots of regional governors.  Who will win?  Can United Russia cling on to power?  Despite an approval rating in the 30's, down from 42%[1] earlier in the year ...

Well, yes.  

Firstly, the authorities have taken the precaution of banning the only previously-tolerated 'opposition' party, which had the temerity to oppose the Special Military Operation almost from the outset.  Up until now this had been allowed to pass, but not any longer.  Secondly, the Fix is In.  

Putin has declared that he's looking for United Russia to get 85%.  (Long-time readers will recall that my sources gave the Presidential result to within the percentage last time around[2]: they are good, these election-fixers!  Eat your heart out, Donald.) 

The only small cloud on the horizon is opposition from an unexpected source - the Orthodox Church.  His Holiness the Patriarch is firmly onside, but a schism has emerged within the ranks of the bishops, among which there is a 'peace party', apparently.  And just a little bit less easy to suppress, when they've reportedly each had a dream/vision that tells them peace should be declared.

But hey - how many divisions has the episcopy?

ND

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[1] the authorities in Russia carry out extensive social-survey polling.

[2] I had reported - in advance - that the result would be 87% for Putin.  In the event, it was declared as 87.3%.  But later, inexplicably, it was re-counted(!) and the official record now says 88.4%.  See, L'il Volodya really cares about his ratings!  And I'm guessing that 85% satisfies amour propre all round - high, but Not As High As His ...

Polly Toynbee is 'optimistic' again. Won't end well ...

 ... it never does.

Over the years I've tracked the barometer, nay, the roller-coaster of Polly Toynbee's agonisingly optimistic takes on her successive political crushes.  Once the SDP was well and truly dead, she had the highest hopes for Blair - until he let her down.  Who can forget her swooning over fellow '70s soft-leftist, anti-nuke Patricia Hewitt when she became Sec of State at the DTI (whose brief then included Energy) and the ever naive Polly wrote: Get that: no new nuclear power stations!  Only to have Blair overrule her - and fire her - shortly thereafter.  Then Brown became even more of a hot fixation, an object of her wish-projection.  We know what happened there.  Then Miliband (in various incarnations).  Then John McDonnell !  (True.  I told you I follow these thing.)  Then Starmer.  And whenever a GE looms at a moment when her hopes for the incumbent leader have already waned, she always dusts off the 'nosepeg' formula for voting Labour anyway.  

And now, from today's Graun ...

We must believe!   Yes, it's heart-wrenchingly pathetic.  (When was that mugshot taken..?)  Anyhow, as a weekend Blast From The Past, back to those heady days of Gordon Brown and how he, in turn, dashed her hopes - one of my doggerel efforts, from from 2007.  Apologies to J.Milton Hayes and Mad Carew, and a good weekend to all.

There’s a one-eyed yellow Scotsman of a dour and sullen hue
There’s a stench of pious bullshit all around
There’s a broken-hearted woman dreams of socialism true
And the yellow Scot forever lets her down

He was known as Red McBroon, and he made the Party swoon
Though his cowardice had long begun to smell
But for all he was a wanker he was feted by the bankers
And Polly Toynbee smiled on him as well

He’d been stringing her along with his socialism strong
She’d swallowed all he put into her head
When she judged Blair’s time was short, she said Broon had her support
Provided he would prove himself True Red

He wrote to ask what promise she would like from Red McBroon
They met for lunch as many times before
And fervently she told him then that nothing else would do
But his vote against Blair’s mad Iraqi war

On the night of the debate, Red McBroon was in a state,
His followers could bring mad Tony down
But he’d never in his life had the balls to wield the knife
For he knew the wielder never wears the crown

When it came to the division, courage gave way to ambition
And his scruples failed as surely as his balls
When she heard them read the vote, fury welled up in her throat
And ‘betrayal!’ was her cry around the halls

Now Hell it hath no fury like a jilted Polly Toynbee
First Blair and now McBroon had sold his soul
As she stomped off in the night, for her op-ed piece to write
She vowed vengeance on the yellow Scots arsehole

There’s a one-eyed yellow Scotsman of a dour and sullen hue
There’s a stench of pious bullshit all around
There’s a broken-hearted woman dreams of socialism true
And the yellow Scot forever lets her down.

ND

Meghan and Harry: we must all tread Very Carefully

Mrs D taps daily into a rich seam of interweb humour, and the absolute avalanche of really funny Harry&Meghan stuff is often side-splitting stuff: the neighbours can probably hear us.  And the Sussexes ain't even back here in the self-imposed full-bore glare of the UK meejah yet.  Oh, how that pair are going to relish being back in Blighty.  It'll be just like the old days for both of them, and we know how much they enjoyed it last time around.  It's mutual: we can just see the accountants of Fleet Street already banking the extra newsprint sales and online hits.

Now, here's the Thing.  We have all been duly reprimanded for laughing out loud at fraudster-fabulists and their amazing behaviours and statements because, notwithstanding their self-chosen high profiles and prolific public output of creative tales, their entire squadrons of outriders, and their use of aggressive lawyers, they are of course Very Vulnerable.  And - see what happens then ...  And it'll all be our fault & we'll all be Sorry.

Upon solemn reflection, I reckon the 5th in line to the throne isn't necessarily as robust of brain and character as we'd all hope for.  And we know that people who've had to navigate the terrible micro-aggressions and material deprivations meted out to victims of, errr, intersectional oppressions[1], are doubly at risk.  

So we must all refrain from adding to that avalanche of funny stuff.  I shall only repost any of it if it's really, really funny, and has been subjected to a rigorous Risk Analysis[2] conducted by the Chief Safety Officer here at C@W corporate HQ.   

ND

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[1] I may have got the technical terminology wrong here.  It's not my project.

[2] You think this is satire?  Read this crap from the execrable Jolyon Maugham, attacking the Grauniad no less, including the following:

"What risk analysis was done by [Gruan editor] Kath Viner following the multiple warnings about Professor Arday’s mental state?"