... do we not think the ZEV and Rosebank decisions will follow directly? Just like Jackdaw, just as soon as the by-election was over.
The winsome Andy is not without a measure of cunning.
Maybe also Fahnbulleh: the insistence on Rosebank being hers, and hers alone to decide, probably stems from the literal reading of the law, in order to head off a subsequent judicial review. But Re-industrialisation Andy will get his way; and the Chancellor will get his tax revenues and BoP boost.
ND
Prioritising a cheaper energy mix and procuring new generation only where it lowers bills, benefits the system, and can be accommodated by the grid
the UK would “only procure clean power” through round eight “if we are confident it will lower bills”
... 179 references to 'energy', and well over 5,000 words.
Having now read the full Budget doc, it turns out the seemingly footling stuff on energy prices that dominated the headlines was far from the end of the story.
It starts with the predictable "not our fault, guv" - in some statistical detail - and, yes, there are the sticking-plaster give-aways the headlines were all about, which seem to characterise Burnham's style. But there is bigger stuff, too: "This Budget represents a shift in the government’s approach to energy". Since there's no space here to summarise the whole lot, it seems to mean two main things, the first of which had already started under the last Tory government: a gradual switch away from dumping all "policy costs" onto electricity and (to a lesser extent) gas bills, in favour of charging it to general taxation. There's to be more of that going on now.
Secondly, we have:
... this Budget kickstarts the long-term action required to get energy costs down for good:
Now that could be really interesting. Of course, "lowering bills" can get very theological when the playing-field is fundamentally tilted by not attributing the costs of intermittency etc to the causes of that intermittency - but it's a very interesting line for them to be taking, and provides a stick with which to beat them when, e.g., the next batch of CfDs is to be awarded. No more floating offshore windfarms at £216.49/MWh: in fact, only solar farms could creep in under that definition, properly interpreted.
On top of this, it's becoming increasingly clear that the bloated DESNZ budget is being raided to fund all manner of things - small things this time round, of course, but when the Defence aspect of the putative 10-year Plan hoves into view, it is likely to hit DESNZ up for quite a few quid more, with correspondingly more bleating to come from the usual quarters. Finally, there is a bit on the energy aspects of data centres, for anyone interested.
And the aim of all this? "Cutting bills to reindustrialise the country." Sic! A laudable aim indeed.
Unfortunately, just when you think Miliband's fantasies have been consigned to where they belong, it's all spoiled by the assertion that "The focus now is to unleash cheap electricity". WTF? Where have you been hiding it all this while?!
ND
In days of yore, our founder CU would have had a lot to say about the Budget. Any Budget, in fact.
But with this one - has anyone got much to say? Except, as Krishnan Guru-Murthy put it (and I don't ever recall quoting him before) - so where's that "putting an end to 40 years of neo-liberalism", eh?
Shan't be surprised if the BTL comments are thin on the ground this time ...
ND
PS: much more entertaining is the briefing war being waged over Rosebank. Harriet Harman a drill-baby-driller! Who knew? I'm taking names. In circumstances of not much else to talk about in politics this week, it's a lot of fun.
From the day Burnham took office, the green-left has been howling at him not to approve Jackdaw & Rosebank. This raucous attempt at intimidation possibly peaked with a piece in the Graun analysed at C@W here, when more than 20 distinct (and awfully shrill) "arguments" were made, one after the other - and hilarious reading they still make. It was always pretty obvious they did protest too much which, as regards Jackdaw at least, they probably now recognise themselves.
And now he's gone and "Failed His First Big Test" or, as we would put it, "Passed". Time will tell if the threatened back-bench revolt / party split / defections to the Greens will result. I'm guessing not, but will be taking a forensic interest in how things pan out in the public debate. (If anyone spots a really juicy piece in an obscure journal etc, do let us know.)
As we said all along, Jackdaw (gas) was always the easier decision to make and to sell. You don't need to have a degree in Party Management to see the logic in running it first, in order to see how matters pan out from here (- not to mention in order to get the gas ashore this winter!) If it turns out to have burned a bunch of political capital, Rosebank (oil) might have to wait. If, by contrast, it's a walk in the park, Rosebank will follow, as night follows day. Fahnbulleh seems to be briefing that she's agin'; but let's see. That might just be to get the protestors off her back for now. It's Burnham's call anyway, and he & Healey might want the exports / jobs / tax revenues / preservation of international reputation.
Not all of the authors of the original 20+ Shrill Arguments will have been cowed by Jackdaw: indeed some of them - including Ed "Climate Vandalism" Miliband himself - had already accepted by then that Jackdaw might be quite likely to fly. So for Round-2-Rosebank we may expect another round of high-pitch whining and threatening in the days and weeks to come. Part of our forensic analysis of this political fallout will be to note exactly who considers it worth prolonging the fight - and how much of their own political capital they are willing to expend in doing so.
That won't include many Labour backbenchers, I'm guessing: so no big backbench revolt. Of course, one of the 20+ was the threat of defections to the Greens, and loss of votes in the same direction: and for sure, a lot of would-be ambitious MPs are now simply concerned to save their seats. It helps greatly that "Polanski" is staggering on the ropes, of course: and that the red entryists have systematically made the Green party look anything but cosy & welcoming.
How are the popcorn reserves holding up?
ND
