Mysterious fire: what can have happened?

We return to a location in Croydon we've visited here before: to a house directly opposite this pair of beauties (of which one remains stubbornly unsold, even at a much reduced price).  For years, this fine but dilapidated edifice that they look out onto has commanded the road, twin turrets and all.  The owners are the Datoo brothers, gentlemen well known to Croydon Council, who had submitted wave upon wave of planning applications, involving complete demolition, generally for large, low-rise blocks of flats.  Most of these had not found favour.  Their latest plan is for a 60-resident nursing home.

Ten days ago at 4 am, a large conflagration broke out, seemingly in two different parts of the house simultaneously (not that I'm a forensic scientist).  The place immediately became what must surely be a crime scene, with a 24-hour police presence (!) being mounted for at least 5 days after the fire, and a regular presence there even today.

What can possibly have happened?  Did a group of pyromaniac squatters move in and take against the place?  We must wait patiently for an inquiry.

In any event, locals are distinctly Not Happy.  "It would appear that there's been foul play here."  All very odd.

ND

Seven-Up / 70-Up and a big coincidence

I can't guess how widely the 7-Up series has a following among the C@W faithful, but in Schloss Drew we've certainly always watched it over the decades.  Capped off this week by 70-Up, which looks to be the very last outing for that format and crew.

Here's a remarkable coincidence.

Having not been at school with any of the 14 subjects, nor come into contact with them in any shape or form in my youth, nor sought them out in any way, nor ever come anywhere near the TV programme and any of its workings or personnel,  in later life I came to know two of the 14 personally (one in the Army and the other ay University).  What are the chances of that?[1]

One of them I subsequently avoided.[2]    With the other, Mrs D & I were in reasonably regular incidental contact until he moved away from London; and still see him once in a while.

Curious.  Small world.

ND

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[1] That said, there seemed to be several coincidences around that set of people, as recounted by the lad who became a taxi driver.

[2] Libel is still a thing.

Returning to the Baltics

Just back from a round trip, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania - determined to get there, perhaps for the last time, before Putin does.  It might have been a closer-run thing than we'd anticipated. 

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When I was based in Moscow in the mid 1990s, I also had a pied-a-terre office in Riga [LVA], so in a dated fashion I am somewhat familiar with that city.   The building was gone - it had been the Latvian Konsomol HQ - and replaced by something very mundane: but its twin on the opposite corner is still standing, so you get the idea. 

Site of Drew's office: back then it looked like its twin on the left

In all three countries, Russian can still be heard spoken (far more in Riga than anywhere else) but support for Ukraine is very great.   In May, Putin took powers to use the army to “protect Russian citizens” abroad and appealed to the UN Court of Justice to demand the Baltic states, particularly Latvia, be held to account for “infringing on the rights of Russians”.    The sabre-rattling is there for all to hear. 

Well, one of his massive strategic errors was to treat so very badly those parts of the 'pro Russian' Donbas he seized in 2014: you have to be an extremely Russophile Russian-speaker to want the same for your own region.   In the lovely university town of Tartu [EST] a museum attendant advised me to keep my (modest) knowledge of Russian to myself. 

But could the Baltics be defended?   It's perfect tank country, flat as a pancake: the highest 'mountain', Suur Munamägi [EST] is only 1,000 ft. The population is sparse, and declining in each country[1].  The first is true of both Sweden and Finland, of course, and nobody mistakes them for a pushover. But defensively their geographical advantages are great.  The Baltics by contrast have a hideously long land border with Russia / Belarus; far less defensive depth; the anomalous bastion-state of Kaliningrad to their south; and something of a fifth column, however small, in each country.  In terms of the usual Russian strategy - a lightning land-grab, promptly fortified and never to be returned, with rachet-increments planned thereafter - only the full force of NATO could offer protection.  And that means more than just a plausible strong Polish counter-thrust from the south and some Ukrainian drone-warfare savvy.  Yes, we saw NATO troops and aircraft everywhere, but not in vast numbers. 

Frankly, 'defence' here means an exceptionally fast and large-scale counter-mobilisation during a buildup period[2], plus a credible nuclear deterrent: sanctions have already been pretty much maxxed out.  If Putin survives another decade in his present frame of mind, and if he doesn't believe our red lines (we've never believed his), there's little hope. 

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As if to reinforce these gloomy thoughts, two weeks ago the F16s and Typhoons were circling Vilnius [LTU] as we arrived and the airport was briefly closed.  At midnight a day later, up on our phones flashed a (Lithuanian) government alert message - 'Find safe place'.  The drone in question was promptly shot down and the all-clear given; but there were squads of soldiers on the street the next morning. 

Certainly takes the edge off a holiday trip.  A great shame, because the weather was good, the insects not oppressive (other than in Riga), we saw some beautiful sights and met some great people.   In principle, we'd also like to go back again - a great deal more to see.  Can we hope that a Burnham - Miliband government will contribute meaningfully to strengthening the West's collective position? 

ND 

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[1] Also declining in Russia, of course - and most everywhere else in Eastern Europe. 

[2] And who else in Europe believed the very specific US / UK intelligence warnings in 2021-22? Blinkered hope reigns eternal.

 

AI escapes

The other day our friend CH noted BTL (and OT, but let's not worry about that): 

... We can now create virtual Von Neumann machines comprising of those AIs, who can scale and network as well as reason around any guardrails, and so are clear to cheat their way to solutions without the sentience to weigh consequences as we would. Not they can't reason consequence, but is done as an exercise in cold logic. This is actually more dangerous than a SkyNet - it's swarms of savants looking to achieve aims without any moral or ethical boundaries, and with no higher scope of understanding. And given IT has been a lot of bodged jobs, minimal security, and all connected via a global network that itself can be hijacked at scale, we've quite the recipe for disaster ...

So let's have at it.

I have seen the AI escape likened to covid, and explicitly contrasted with climate change.  The former was on everyone's radar for a few weeks, while we all wondered what would happen next ...

I haven't seen it likened to the financial crash of 2008.  Here at C@W, we signposted that in 2007, so perhaps the run-up period is about right.    But where is Gordon Brown to save the world now ..?

ND

Russian elections this month - exciting!

[Spoiler alert - contains election result]  

The exciting prospect of a Russian election is upon us!  Not the Presidential this time, but the Duma and lots of regional governors.  Who will win?  Can United Russia cling on to power?  Despite an approval rating in the 30's, down from 42%[1] earlier in the year ...

Well, yes.  

Firstly, the authorities have taken the precaution of banning the only previously-tolerated 'opposition' party, which had the temerity to oppose the Special Military Operation almost from the outset.  Up until now this had been allowed to pass, but not any longer.  Secondly, the Fix is In.  

Putin has declared that he's looking for United Russia to get 85%.  (Long-time readers will recall that my sources gave the Presidential result to within the percentage last time around[2]: they are good, these election-fixers!  Eat your heart out, Donald.) 

The only small cloud on the horizon is opposition from an unexpected source - the Orthodox Church.  His Holiness the Patriarch is firmly onside, but a schism has emerged within the ranks of the bishops, among which there is a 'peace party', apparently.  And just a little bit less easy to suppress, when they've reportedly each had a dream/vision that tells them peace should be declared.

But hey - how many divisions has the episcopy?

ND

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[1] the authorities in Russia carry out extensive social-survey polling.

[2] I had reported - in advance - that the result would be 87% for Putin.  In the event, it was declared as 87.3%.  But later, inexplicably, it was re-counted(!) and the official record now says 88.4%.  See, L'il Volodya really cares about his ratings!  And I'm guessing that 85% satisfies amour propre all round - high, but Not As High As His ...