Wednesday, 21 January 2026

Rogues I Have Known: James Allcock, part 1

Pic:  Daily Telegraph

There won't be many readers who have heard of James Allcock (died at the age of 90, obit here, which you should maybe read first). De mortuis nil nisi bonum, obviously; and I'll immediately say, he was a very nice guy who commanded tremendous loyalty, which (generally) speaks well for a man.  But he was also, how shall we say, a tough customer.  Being, as he was, the head buyer for the old British Gas when it was a monopoly.  I shall explain.  At length.

BG took on the form we most associate with it when North Sea gas hove into view in the late '60s.  The late (and not very lamented) Dennis Rooke was given responsibility for converting the nation rapidly from town gas to natural gas, in which he succeeded, using methods that left a lasting and very equivocal legacy - a story for another day.   It seems from the above-referenced obit, Allcock (I never knew this) had a hand in it, too.

However, it was in his prime as BG's head buyer of gas from upstream producers that I first met him.  Did I say 'buyer'?  BG enjoyed, not only a statutory monopoly, but also a monopsony, which it enforced zealously.  So if your company had discovered gas in the North Sea (and later, off the west coast, too), you had nowhere to go but to headmaster Allcock's study.  The only question was, how painful the experience was going to be.  He had only two forces providing a weak form of discipline on his rapacity:  (a) some customers (particularly industrials)[1] still had the ability to use alternative fuels, mostly oil of one grade or another; and (b) the Norwegians, at least, had alternative outlets for their gas.  Otherwise, he could generally have his wicked way with you; and he & his opposite numbers in equally monopsonistic European utilities used to swap notes gleefully on how roughly they'd rogered their victims.

That said, he was a perfect gentleman, and built a department consisting of three teams of negotiators to carry out his purchasing policy.  You need to know that these negotiations were for astonishing amounts of gas, since Allcock insisted on buying the entire quantity of gas in a given field, which might be producing the stuff for as many as 50 years[2].  So the amounts of money on the table were correspondingly stupendous; the sellers were very big companies themselves (basically, the '7 sisters' plus the Norwegians, and various hangers-on); and the negotiations were interminable.  Two years for the sale of a single large field's gas was par for the course. 

Each of his teams was led by another perfect gentleman[3] and some extremely courteous juniors, whose conduct was extremely stylised in the oriental fashion.  There were three juniors to a team, and each had their allotted role.  #2 would occasionally get to speak out loud in the meetings; #3 might get to whisper something to #2; and #4 was silent, taking notes.  There would also always be one or more of BG's exceptionally proprietorial external lawyers, who did all the drafting.  Indeed, all the meetings were held at the offices of BG's lawyers, the then firm of Denton Hall Burgin & Warren.  This was to the advantage of all the participating negotiators, since lunch came in the form of a Fortnum's hamper, and the fridge was well stocked too.

Thus, it was possible to be thoroughly rogered by Allcock and his teams, and enjoy the whole process greatly.   One or two of the junior might have been redbrick, but inevitably the main players on all sides (whichever oil company was selling) were Oxbridge: even the US and Norwegian sellers made sure to field the "right people" for this arcane negotiation ritual.  Literary references (which would sometimes find their way into the drafting) and Latin jokes were prized currency.

This splendid abuse of BG's statutory powers lasted from the late '60s to the early 90's.  Allcock had to weather a couple of storms before eventually competition started developing for real, as I'll describe in part 2.  I'll also give some examples of the outrageous abuse of its monopoly BG perpetrated when this regime still had the power to do so.  

And, to cut to the chase for part 1, Allcock - in his urbane manner - fought the onset of competition all the way.  When, in the early 90's, it was almost over for his way of doing business, I had a drink with him one day and asked him: why this stubborn rearguard defence, when the end-point was clear?  I drew the analogy with Germany's losses on the Eastern front: if they'd called it quits after Kursk, say, and fallen back in good order to the German border, Berlin may never have fallen to Russia[4].  As it was, they lost countless men for arguably a much worse result.  Likewise, BG was (at the time I posed the question) mulishly refusing to concede market share, and using its enduring natural monopoly on the pipeline system to make life as difficult as possible for its new competitors, once they arrived on the scene, knowing that there was every intention on the part of government to make sure the new entrants succeeded.  If BG had fallen back on its de facto monopoly of the residential gas market - devilishly difficult for competitors to make inroads into, and not nearly as profitable as the infinitely more accessible industrial & commercial sectors - it could have held that till kingdom come.

He smiled, poured us another drink, and said: "Every day's delay is another monopoly pound in our pockets."

More to follow.  In the meantime: RIP, James, you old rogue. 

ND

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[1] For a sustained period until the late 1980s it was illegal in the UK, and in most of Europe and the USA, too, to use natural gas for power generation .  Bizarre, but true.

[2] The largest North Sea gas field, Leman, started production in 1969 and is still producing to this day

[3] In the early years, at least - things changed towards the end, but, no names, no packdrill 

[4] A counterfactual for the historians, obviously.  But it served my illustrative purpose.

Tuesday, 20 January 2026

Trump charts new extremes of human nature

At the weekend I read this short piece, entitled:

"Our Impossibly Small-souled President"

The author, one Jeffrey Blehar, is no great artist or philosopher - but his coinage, small-souled trashiness, is on point.  And mention of 'small-souledness' inevitably brings to mind the classic descriptive accounts of the Great-Souled Man, starting with the ancient Greeks - Homer, Plato, Aristotle - amplified by Shakespeare, Goethe (to an extent) and of course Nietzsche.  Let's keep the citations to a minimum and satisfy ourselves with extracts from Aristotle's canonical account: 

The great-souled man is fond of conferring benefits, but ashamed to receive them ... He returns a service done to him with interest ... It is also characteristic of great-souled men never to ask help from others, or only with great reluctance, but to render aid willingly; and to be haughty towards men of position or fortune, but courteous towards those of moderate station ... it is vulgar to lord it over humble people ... He must care more for the truth than for what people think ... he does not bear a grudge.

And so on.  It's not difficult to conclude that Trump embodies the exact antithesis of all this, in every dimension: quite an achievement.  Not in terms of great villainy - think Iago, Judas, or the Serpent - but great smallness!  And quite a remarkable state of affairs, that one such as he should be in the position he is.  Age, thou art shamed!  Rome, thou hast lost thy breeds of noble blood!

Of course, in literature the extremes of human nature are frequently documented in poetic depictions of tragedy.  We've no shortage of dramatic events in the flesh - but where is the great art that so often emerges from times of great turmoil?  If tragedy is the classic vehicle for depictions of the great-souled man, what is the medium for portraying his opposite?  Where is our Shakespeare, our Milton?

ND  

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Afterthought: though hardly a man of worldscale literary merit, we must note with dismay the passing of cartoonist Scott Adams, whose perspicacity in identifying Trump as The Man Most Likely To, way back before Trump's selection as Republican candidate first time around, was detailed, shrewd and very impressive.  All of a piece with the astute micro-insights delivered over the years by Dilbert.  Needless to say, the small-souled one managed to make his commentary on Adams' death all about himself.  Of course he did: I rest my case.

Monday, 12 January 2026

Venezuela through Russian and Chinese eyes

In the previous post I suggested: 

... the Venezuela adventure is ... forcing Putin to eat more shit as he is lamely reduced to asking that his tanker crew will be nicely looked after.  Yep, lots of random shit happens on Planet Trump ... both Russia and Xi are utterly dismayed, as ever, by the casual ease with which perfidious western nations sweep away years and even decades of patient strategic effort: this time Venezuela, the latest in a long series  

- that series including Libya, Syria and Iran-as-Middle-East-counterweight (and supplier of arms to Russia).

Taking Russia first: Putin really had set a lot of strategic store by Venezuela - proportionately, a lot more than Xi, for whom these things are merely road-bumps, however annoying and tactically unpredictable.  Ditto Syria, ditto Iran.  Putin is beholden to N.Korea, FFS, at the same time as trying to project a superpower profile, so these setbacks are pretty hard to swallow.  The Bear with the sore head is unlikely to cut anyone any favours on its western borders, witness the performative missile strike on Lviv; but he'll be watching Iran with an awful sense of déjà-vue doom.  Where to parade his plonker now, except in the Donbas?

China looks very different.  Xi pretty much believes in regional hegemony!  So Venezuela may be a bit of a setback to a maturing long-term plan, and oil is oil; but hey, Taiwan is the only thing he really cares about, period.  

Also, he's looking forward to wiping the floor with Trump - again - this year.  He played Trump brutally last yearYou say 'tariffs', Mr Trump?  Nope, and we raise you rare earth metals.  Now, hand over your very best chips, lots of them, before we reduce your remaining industries to rust and dust ... That's the way, Donald, there's a good boy.  Now run along.

And 2026 is the mid-terms ...  Venezuela, pffft.  Trump and Xi are scheduled for a couple of summits this year, and the Chinese will be expecting to ream him again.  What else of gigantic strategic value will Trump give away this time?  The dawning of the Chinese era stands to be accelerated materially in just a few months. Scary stuff. 

ND

UPDATE:  see thread below - this is getting complicated !  

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jan/17/china-blocks-nvidia-h200-ai-chips-that-us-government-cleared-for-export-report

Thursday, 8 January 2026

Ukraine - more first drafts of history

Last year's Predictions compo invited short essays on Ukraine.  I largely ducked this one but there was a very decent effort by Caesar H, including: 

Trump comes up with a Big Deal that makes sense to him, Zelensky signs off on it begrudgingly, Putin doesn't. Trump, having paper thin skin, takes this badly ... by year end some of Russia's gains will have reversed, and there'll still be an embedded Ukrainian presence in Russia, and Trump will start suggesting giving them nukes in response to Russia's usual bellicosity about using them. Think of the geopolitical version of "I offered you a way out asshole, you slapped my hand away, so I'm going to crush your nuts until you cry like a little bitch".    I expect this theory to disproven by February of course 

Putting aside the nukes bit, it was actually a very fine prediction.  Putin seemed at first to be playing a decent hand with Trump, but his early political gains have been squandered (does anyone really know how to play Trump?  Even Netanyahu?).  I believe Ukr still holds a few square meters of Russian soil to this day; and although none of Russia's gains as of Jan 2025 have been reversed, several of their advances during 2025 have indeed been reversed - though the definition of "advances" changed during the year**.   

I have no idea what the collective western brainpower around the most recent "coalition of the willing" table thinks they've come up with this week.  They all know, for 100% certain  - even, or perhaps especially Witless, who's had several lengthy in-person lectures from L'il Volodya - that the idea of NATO boots on the ground / air patrols in Ukr airspace are an absolute Red Line for Putin, despite the endless red lines of his that the west calmly breezed through in 2022 / 23 / 24.  

Is it a Cunning Plan?  Designed to get a wholly predictable 'Неt' that will enrage the Orange One?  If so, the parallel Venezuela adventure is reinforcing the C-Plan nicely, forcing Putin to eat more shit as he is lamely reduced to asking that his tanker crew will be nicely looked after.  What a piece of serendipity that is!  Yep, lots of random shit happens on Planet Trump.

I don't have a conclusion on Ukraine right now, because a massive and fairly binary pivot-point looms (and of course may fade away again, as have several before).  Just a few observations:

  • while there's still nothing to stop Putin having what he wants in terms of the Donbas (as I've said all along), he doesn't seem willing to pay the price (or at very least is understandably reluctant), and still hopes to get it on a plate via a 1-1 with Trump
  • the only possible way he'll get more than just the Donbas (in terms of territory or in any other dimension) is also from Trump
  • once again, both Russia and Xi are utterly dismayed, as ever, by the casual ease with which perfidious western nations sweep away years and even decades of patient strategic effort: this time Venezuela, the latest in a long series
We'll shortly have another post on this last point.

ND

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** Russia has more-or-less given up on even small-scale armoured thrusts (they all get eliminated piecemeal), or even the motorbike / quad-bike "dragoon" charges of 2024, settling instead for a pretty feeble doctrine of "infiltration on foot in 2s and 3s".  Sometimes this is genuine recce, but mostly it is simply for the sake of probing, and often for no more than raising a flag, having a quick photo taken by a drone, then the job's done, the map is updated, and nobody in the Russian command much cares for the subsequent fate of the probers.

On this last point, honest Russian milboggers are incensed by the endemic Russian practice of over-claiming territorial gains, in what they call "beautiful reports" from lower echelons to higher command and even to Putin himself.  They observe that "victories on credit" frequently result in carnage for the troops on the ground: they are either ordered to "make the maps true" by hurriedly and suicidally advancing into the falsely-claimed territory, and/or having resources taken away because, their having already "gained their objective", they no longer need them.  They also observe that promotions and medals are frequently awarded on the basis of "beautiful reports" alone.



Friday, 2 January 2026

2026 Predictions!

OK, so for 2026 we'll keep it easy ...


1.  FIFA World Cup:  winning team;  golden boots winner(s);  will Wales / N.Ireland / Rep. Ireland qualify? 

2.  Seeing as the man disappointed us last year: date of  Starmer's first Cabinet reshuffle, per last year's definition**, with BPs for names etc

3.  Name of UK Prime Minister on 24.12.26

4.  Results of US Mid-terms 2026, both Houses

5.  Prices of Brent oil in USD/Bbl; gold & silver in GBP/oz on 24.12.26

6.  Joker: anything you have a canny idea is going to happen on the world stage in 2026, that can be expressed in a single sentence of ordinary length.

We'll skip Ukraine this time: strong likelihood of being too complicated to adjudicate.

Have at it below !

ND

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** "Cabinet reshuffle" = two or more changes to the Cabinet roster, unforced by resignation or death.  Splitting of an existing Cabinet post into two or more new positions doesn't count per se - only if accompanied by reshuffle as defined above.  By this definition there hasn't been one yet.