Sunday, 8 June 2008

Sunday Business Aggregation - 8-6-08

The really worrying thing this week is the price increase in Oil by $10 this last two days. Mainly because I picked shares last week with the idea that oil would fall, like British Airways. Also though, I can see no way to avoid a very painful recession with oil prices at these levels. When I started this blog nearly 2 years ago i said that stagflation would be the result of Labour policies and now it has come to pass. The worry is that it accelerates over the next few months and we have a terrible economic situation.

The Sunday's all have this theme as their main points of business news, but there are some other good nuggets too;

Oil prices rocket - The Guardian has a good summary of the events which have hit the markets at the end of last week.

FTSE100 shake-up - More miners to enter the index, showing the full effect of the resource super-cycle.

India Fuel protests - A good example of Asian governments giving into the high prices too, inflation in Asia will slow the dragon rapidly and could undo much of the economic gains of the past few years. Still, outsourcing could retrench as a business.....

North Sea Oil - On the plus side, we have plenty of oil left with high prices, as long as the Government does not insist on hobbling the industry with extra taxes.

Stelzer's oil view - He thinks it will all be ok a decade from now. Shame we have to live through that decade though eh?

Hedge funds hide - None have signed up to the voluntary code. The old phrase comes to mind "money talks and bull...."

B&B hits rates - Stricken Bradford & Bingley raises mortgage rates. Egg gives up on the market all together. Not a good time to try and get a mortgage nowadays. The real question is...will we have waiting lists again like we did in the 70's?

Cars hit by negative equity
- Thanks ot excessive government taxes. Thanks Gordon and Badger!

Al Italia 'Fraud' - Everyone agrees saving this utter dof of a company is both illegal and irrational. With high oil prices the weak must fall in the market, national sentimentality can take a back seat.

BBC spin-off makes good - Working with China on the Olympics. And people say privatisation would be a disaster for our media market...


James Higham said...

Mainly because I picked shares last week with the idea that oil would fall, like British Airways.

Why would you have done that? You're in the City, right, CUS?

Nick Drew said...

Are you still shorting gold too, CU ?

Old BE said...

It's surely the change in the oil price that matters rather than its overall level? Oil stays high, industry develops new technology for overcoming it. A relatively simple matter of correction from the era of unrealistically low oil prices?

As for recession: bring it on, it might get the state to cut itself back down to a sensible size.

CityUnslicker said...

JH/ND - contrarian normally pays. I will review this tomorrow - still I think Oil will fall in the short to medium term.

Gold too, as long as the dollar rally continues....

am I so wrong?

Old BE said...

By the way, if B&B are having such difficulty raising capital, why have they not kept up their savings rates? Is it still cheaper to raise cash in the markets than from depositors?

DorsetDipper said...

How is Gordon responsible for stagflation in the UK given that most of the world is suffering from these same pressures? Do you think if Cameron or Clegg were in charge the prospect would be any different?

CityUnslicker said...

Dorset - yes I do as it happens.

With the splurge of public sector spending we have no room left for any fiscal measures to offset the current conditions.

We could not help the inflation but we could have lower interest rates if domestic demand had not been pumped with public sector spending or a big set of tax rebates to help support the economy in these difficult times.

Things would have been very different with a more fiscally literate government in charge.

Anonymous said...

I read somewhere that it is in fact the oil traders who are simply pushing up the oil price by their feverish activity in the futures market, while stories about shortages, difficulties in retrieving supplies etc may of course also have a bearing.

I wish I knew a little more about all this, but if that is so, can nothing be done to impose a temporary freeze on such trades? The Japanese for instance have banned futures trading in their rice, so why not others in oil?

The G8 meeting (as expected) came away only with buckets of yet more hot air; seems like a good opportunity to install some effective action went by unnoticed. Useful explanations or clarifications welcomed please.

Nick Drew said...

Not ready to call either oil or gold a short just yet, personally

Bill Quango MP said...

How is Gordon responsible for stagflation in the UK...

Raising taxes during a recession?

public net debt to 43.1% GDP?

the largest budget deficit of any industrial economy?

DorsetDipper said...

thanks everyone for the economics lesson.

I must admit I'd missed Cameron saying he was going to slash the public sector deficit or increase taxes. Could anyone provide me with a reference?

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