Very busy this week and busy today with birthday of 1 year old to which Mr Quango is coming too, though I am not sure we will have room in our small garden for his Helicopter; Mrs CU is also worried about the quality of sandwiches and bites that we have in case we upset such an esteemed MP.
Anyway, I missed this week blogging on the final announcement that we are to have a UK recession. This is bad news for us all. Although the original report says 0% growth this is very likely to get revised down and so 2008 growth so far is .2% - before inflation which is at least 3.8% average.
All the economists see this as being the first of a protracted set of numbers; I can't disagree I am afraid and think 2009 will be as bad as 2008 if not worse. Yikes,
Good signs that things are deteriorating are events like this. HBOS, utterly ruined by the credit crunch, is reducing agencies and cutting staff. This will have a long way to run. The hope must be that high inflation at least prevents us entering a Japanese 'lost-decade' with no growth.
(If your wondering what this means, well the Japanese banks in the late 80's did what ours have just done. But with no inflation to whittle away the value of the debts, the economy became moribund for over 10 years. With us, 5% inflation should mean we get away with a lot less than a decade of no growth)
8 comments:
Worrying signs. I'm jumping out of the economy and moving abroad for a year to escape it all.
Not sure if it is a good idea or not, but it should be some fun along the way!
That whittling away malarkey only works if real interest rates are negative, doesn't it? 5% inflation and 7% interest rates doesn't help a borrower, what he wants is 5% inflation and 3% interest rates.
Anyway, The Experts are totally divided on whether we will have inflation or deflation, surely you've got to know the answer to that first. (deflation IMHO, but I'm not sure).
As mark says. And if that happens it will be paid for by those of us who are trying to save for retirement or those in retirement.
inflation is not economic growth.
I expect biflation to continue.
Inflation in things bought with salary (although demand destruction will mellow that), deflation in things usually bought with credit.
we do have negative rates - or more of less 0.
5% inflation and 5.5% BOE interest rate 9the extra the abnks offer is mostly eaten up in tax).
Very nice to see CU and all the slickers today. Lovely cucumber sandwiches {shame no caviar, but times are hard for all.}
CU, when are you putting up a poll for the date of the first feeble .25% rate cut.
I'm on for December to try and drive some christmas shopper numbers.
I heard on the grape vine that Welcome car Finance are in a spot of bother....
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