Wednesday, 29 June 2016

How Negotiations Happen

Among the many recent belly-laughs afforded by Juncker et al, the one about "there must be no secret, back-door negotiations" gave particular pleasure.  We all know the telecomms companies must have seen as big a spike in international secure-line phonecalls as the MSM and every other type of M have in their ratings over the past frenetic week.  Jeez, Juncker's staff will hardly have stopped talking to Whitehall for half a second since early a.m. on Friday.  Can an ordinary punter actually get a 'Business Premier' seat on the Eurostar just now?

The only person not talking to anyone is J.Corbyn.  Of course, no-one wants to speak to him either, so it works out quite nicely.

Oh, Events, Events - how we Nietzscheans love 'em.  No negotiations!  Hahaha!



andrew said...

Oddly the 'modification' of the principle right to free movement may well have enabled Turkish entry until events...

Blue Eyes said...

Nick my thoughts exactly... A lot of this would have been modelled before the vote even took place.

The German MP that the BBC found to chat to was confident that an acceptable compromise could be found.

hovis said...

Re: Corbyn have you seen the thought meme that the coup is orchestrated not because of Brexit but the need to oust him before Chilcott to protect Blair?

Anonymous said...

This seems odd, C@W have gone from a position of pointing out every government bungle to faith that they will pull off the deal of the century? My feeling is that many of the remain camp knew that in theory a better deal could exist but the odds of any government achieving it in the small time frame, with all the willy waving was pretty much impossible.

Just checked, plenty of tickets for Eurostar.

Bill Quango MP said...

The FTSE is back above its Thursday/Friday falls.

Listening to the BBc at lunchtime that wasn't message. For a minute it sounded as if Skynet had become self-aware

Blue Eyes said...

"Just checked, plenty of tickets for Eurostar."

Don't you just love the internet?

andrew said...

Anon at 3
We only have to be slightly less incompetent than the other side.
Given the other side is the sum of 27 not quite aligned interests,
Just for once I think we will be slightly less incompetent.

Electro-Kevin said...

A few minor concessions on the EU's part might have avoided all this.

CityUnslicker said...

EK - still might. Long way to go yet.

Loads of codswallop being talked. E.g. The Euro clearing zone. Get real.

I will if I get a chance post on the euro-dollar market and how that came about. Same thing, but with Uncle Sam. Total defeat for the statists vs the markets. Unsurprising the French lack the ability to grasp this.

CityUnslicker said...

Anon - A govt without Osborne and Cameron should be a big improvement when it comes to negotiations. Boris can even speak to Merkel in German directly and her English is poor which is a useful benefit.

Blue Eyes said...

CU my thoughts exactly re the Euro clearing market.

Also re passporting, the EU has given similar rights to US and HK firms because their regulations are deemed effective enough. Unless we are about to tear ours up then we should be OK.

And let us not even mention the effects that the transaction tax will wreak when the UK is not there to save the Eurozone from itself.

My goodness, this is really happening and it is really going to work!

Steven_L said...

This passporting is all a bit dodgy anyway. I had to go visit some poor bloke who had been ripped off £400k by a boiler shop a couple of years ago. They sold him their own shares and were on the FCA register via one of these EEA passports. They even had Bertie Ahern on their board and photos of Samuel L Jackson playing charity golf with them.

I think I'd prefer it if they either stopped firms 'passporting' their way onto the FCA register or stopped misrepresenting to the public that the firms on the FCA register are UK regulated and covered by the Financial Ombudsman Service.

I'd never realised you can register the subsidiary of a Swiss firm in Luxembourg, 'passport' it onto the FCA register, send old folk brochures with your FCA number on then phone them and flog them worthless assets. Poor sods think they are protected but when you phone the FOS you get 'computer says no'.

Suff said...

100% Steven
Greece got one of these CORGI registered plumbers in to fix a tap and look what it did to their economy

andrew said...

- "A few minor concessions on the EU's part might have avoided all this. "

Thing is any one concession of those few minor concessions was not minor to at least one EU country - some may argue many - and it only takes one to stand firm on principle (like germany or france) and that is it.

Cameron is widely condemned for not getting that much out of the EU in his negotiations.
I think with the benefit of hindsight, he could not have got much more.

If we do get an exemption on free movement and stay in the single market - at any price - then the key negotiators have my eternal respect - undermining one of the principal pillars of the EU would be a diplomatic triumph greater than the creation of the EU in the first place

(obligatory disclaimer - this is not an attempt to change anyones opinion on brexit either way)

Nick Drew said...

I think with the benefit of hindsight, he could not have got much more

can't agree with that, Andrew, for reason that there's no sign I can see of him having played his hand at all well in the 'negotiations': quite the opposite, I'd say

'asked for little, got even less' is what people say. Well, you generally get less than you initially ask for in any type of bargaining. Key is to ask for something substantial, whilst still within the bounds of reason

for my money (and it probably is my money; and yours) the opening salvo should also have included a real hand-grenade, the obvious one being to stop moving the Parliament to Strasbourg all the time. This, lest it be forgot, was a Tory manifesto promise, and almost every country in EU (bar the obvious one) has said the same at one time or another. Then France would have said, that's it, mon brave, you're outta here! but all the rest would have replied no, hang on a minute, let's hear what they have to say ... and they'd have known they had a game of hardball on their hands

Electro-Kevin said...

Andrew - Cameron's problem is not that he didn't come back with very much, rather that he tried to convince us a mongrel pup was a pedigree.

He'd have been far better off telling us that EU negotiations were limited, below our expectations and then he should have stepped out of the fray.

I'm also very disappointed that the specifically told the civil service NOT to prepare for Brexit.

A complete dereliction of duty - unless his first duty was to the EU, of course.

Anonymous said...

I think this will all come down to agreeing numbers of immigrants, Germany wants trade but not many Germans want to come here to work, so what Germany needs to do is sell to the Polish etc. that we can trade but have closed borders, not going to happen, so if we can agree numbers of immigrants the Poles sign off on a deal, we may not even need to pay into the pot. The sell is then to our feckless working class who feel aggrieved that foreigners come here and do the jobs they cant be arsed to do because they think they deserve more despite having piss poor GCSEs and an asbo.
I also think the markets are recovering because they can see we bluffed and the Europeans didn't blink, the deal to be made is not with Europe, it's to the leave voters.

Blue Eyes said...

I think there are two areas which may provide a compromise to allow us to stay in the EEA:

- we accept free movement, but with a concrete plan to keep the external border shut; Merkel may have to be pushed out.

- we accept free movement of workers but EEA nationals are not allowed to claim welfare benefits/pay for schools and NHS until they have paid in for say five years.

I think both would be acceptable to many many EU countries and their electorates.

Electro-Kevin said...

Anonymous at 8.11 - I winced when Farage did his "Told you so" speech to the EU. Does he not realise ?

We are NOT leaving the EU.

Electro-Kevin said...

Blue - That's one hell of a long border to keep shut, and it will need an Australian type refusal system in place.

Eddie Izzard isn't going to wear it. (Though he seems prepared to wear lots of things that look ridiculous.)

BlokeInBrum said...

Perhaps we could arrange a nice little trade with Venezuela. We get their oil, and we send them some loo rolls in exchange...

Sebastian Weetabix said...

There's a difference between free movement of workers (i.e. you can come if you have a job but not if you don't, and btw you don't get benefits until you've paid in for a couple of years) and free movement in general.

Somewhere in there a compromise lies that could keep everyone happy.

Dick the Prick said...

This may sound weird and it is - but i've had a thought banging about in my head ever since last Friday:

Cameron is the best peace time Tory Prime Minister we've ever had or are likely to ever have.

What is it now, 20+ quarters of economic growth, record employment, record low crime, gay marriage, Brexit and the total destruction of both the Liberal Democrat and Labour Parties. He's gone both barrels. Andrew Bonar Law watched the death of the Liberals but Cammo's gone 1 better.

The legacy he leaves is absolutely glorious for the next guy to walk into - sure, it's gonna be hard work but good work - genuine work.

Cammo has left this country in such a wonderful position from which he found it. Sure, he may have done it by accident but that's just churlish - the man is a bloody miracle worker.

And i'm not taking the piss, either.

Nick Drew said...

DtP - I agree with you, more or less. Cameron has always had a shocking press in certain conservative quarters (and I despise the gay marriage nonsense) but overall I reckon he's a class act. And still has several more months of valuable service to render ...

Anonymous said...

Seems like Boris doesn't agree with the Cameron's "golden age" theory. He's sitting this one out with Cam himself.

Wonder if May will duck it too.

Blue Eyes said...

Cameron has been a great PM. Highly frustrating for many on the Right, but they ought now to be extremely pleased with his legacy..!

As we went to the polls I had a thought that it was incredible that we were having an existential discussion when the country (as seen from my angle) is in such great shape. But what better time, actually? When better to negotiate with your trading partners when you take 20% of their car output, half their wine, etc.

What we need now is someone with a clear view of what they want, with a firm stance and a cool head.

Yesterday JRM was interview by the BBC and his point about an FTA (basically that it should not be hard to negotiate at all, given that we already conform to all the EU regs) convinced me that there is very little to worry about apart from if the lefties try to stymie our actual leaving of the EU.

The Tories seem to accept that we are indeed leaving, and it is about time that the people who usually carp on about "democracy" also accept the verdict and move on.

I do hope all the candidates have read The Plan.

Anonymous said...

I do hope all the candidates have read The Plan.

Understand they are putting Chilcott in the chair for this one......

Anonymous said...

DtP -"record employment"

Of non-UK nationals (5m+) and of mothers who need to work to keep a roof over the family's head.

"20+ quarters of economic growth"

Just open the borders and you can grow even more. What's GDP per head looking like?

"gay marriage"

I'll give you that magnificently transformative achievement.

Anonymous said...

Meanwhile, in the paradise that the UK has inexplicably voted to leave...

"The collapse of the Greek economy is almost without precedent. Real household consumption has dropped by 27 per cent since the peak. During the global financial crisis, this figure “only” fell by 6 per cent before rebounding. The combination of mass joblessness, wage cuts, and higher taxes means disposable household incomes have fallen even further. To make up the difference, Greeks have been eating into their savings. In 2006-2009, the personal savings rate averaged about 6 per cent. In 2015, the rate was -6 per cent.

The total amount of dis-saving since mid-2011 implies Greek households have eaten into €19bn worth of savings even as their living standards have cratered."

Electro-Kevin said...

Buy the Big Issue to read an excellent article by the Greek Finance Minister (ex) Yanis Varoufakis.

Dick the Prick said...

@An0n - 6.19 - it was the triangulative and wholesale destruction of both Libs and Lab that I was more impressed with - I fucking hate socialists and my mate had Lib problems too.....

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