The Donald is, by his own estimation, a legendary deal-maker and negotiator. Well, he does get (some) things done, and indeed sometimes gets his own way. But how much of this is deal-making? And how good are his deals? His reputation in the New York real estate sector sucks is, errr, equivocal.
He's been in action quite a bit this year! So there's something to score: and we can form an early view on his performance as a negotiator up against several prominent counterparties.
vs China: Trump is losing, hands down. The Chinese are playing him like a fiddle, and he's steadily backing down on the tariff war, step by step. Yet surely, by every standard of US foreign policy as espoused in the past decade by both his and the Democrat party, this is the only game that truly matters. Sheesh... this really matters! - did he think he could simply swat Xi aside one spring afternoon while he was mostly busy, errr, earning his Nobel Peace prize, annexing the whole North American land mass, remodelling the White House, peddling his crap merchandise, running feuds against everyone he's ever had a grievance against etc etc etc?
vs Russia: jury still out, perhaps, but Putin won't be particularly disconcerted by their exchanges to date. Relative to the extraordinary prior claims made by Trump ("peace in Ukraine in one day!"), and his huffing and puffing about "consequences", the current state of play is pretty demeaning for him.
vs Mexico and Canada: given how things looked at the start of the whole tariffs round, OK-ish for M & C. They've mostly stood their ground, and the world hasn't fallen down around their ears by any means. Makes Trump's early rhetoric look pretty silly - and that's just on trade. As for annexing Canada ... (I think we can hear the laughter from here - and Greenland probably isn't too worried just now, either.)
vs India: jury definitely still out, because India has options. Trump has dealt his blow - but will he get any pleasure from what happens over the next months and years? Not at all clear. How clever is it to send Modi scuttling to Beijing, hmm?
vs Starmer: surely, 2-1 to Trump. Starmer has chosen to grovel, in return for some relative 'gains' (negatively defined, which is the only thing we can say) when compared to the EC, see below. But it has suited Trump to give a little pat on the head to the biggest arse-licker, just pour encourager les autres.
vs the EC: a seriously bad result for the EU, courtesy of the unelected EC which holds much of Europe's fate in their hands. Feeble stuff. A bit of a surprise, given how comprehensively the EC wiped the floor with Cameron and May. But from this distance, that probably tells us more about them than it does about the EC.
vs Iran: personally, I can't call this one yet. Need to keep it in view: could tell us quite a lot.
Crazy man, crazy times.
ND
9 comments:
China is deeply in the shit with the US tariffs. Big cities are shedding people due to lack of employment. Xi looks to be in a precarious position in the CCP as well. So, too early to identify a winner but it appears Trump will prevail over the next 6 months.
Peace in Ukraine in one Day.
See also
A vote for Labour will ensure the (people smuggling) gangs are smashed......
Btw, any "negotiating" undertaken by both Cameron and May was to ensure the Vote to Leave the EU was ignored/frustrated/cancelled.......their services to Cause of he Greater EU has been noted.
Trump makes a big noise and he thrashes around a lot but hasn't really got a plan or any idea. I feel the US is suffering the pangs of 'end of empire'. Next year we see the mid terms, I guess they are well gerrymandered so the Trump bandwagon will go on.
I suppose India and other Asian nations will keep a wary eye on the US and keep friendly with China. The US can be a good friend but for Asia memories of a bad and often incompetent enemy remain. Trust remains a problem.
Russia seems a very useful tool with which to hold Europe back and give the US freer rein. But there seems no reason to think Russia is going anywhere apart from 'a gas station with nukes'.
Europe can be kept locked in its own backyard scratching around looking for scraps and wasting money and time on Russia. Keeps the security boondoggles in funds while the US pats them on the back and makes them bark at their own governments. For Starmer read Europe from which he will never escape the gravitational pull despite Tory grandees hoping for a rich American heiress to bail them out.
Iran is usefully locked up as a Theocracy wasting its resources on a hopeless nuclear programme that can never be used. Keep bashing the prayer mats.
So the US has got it all buttoned up apart from China and the US economy. The big question is will the US constitution be overturned or pushed to one side come November 2028. Re run the 1930s?. Not even Trump would dare, would he.
Any thoughts on the bond markets?
Trump is, however imperfectly, trying to do something strategically correct i.e. reindustrialise the US. But he has 3.5 years, a "diverse" workforce, and many internal enemies.
Xi has a billion 105-IQ people, a distinct lack of diversity, yuge manufacturing ecosystem and no internal challenges - Jack Ma's fate has been noted.
We shouldn't have exported our industry to the Far East, because they won't be so stupid as to export it back again.
Anyone working in tourism perks up at a coachload of Americans arriving, they are generous people. Not so for a coachload of Chinese. But that's the way it'll be.
jim - surely "Tory grandees hoping for a rich American heiress to bail them out" was a century or more ago? e.g. Randolph Churchill and Jennie Jerome.
I don't think Starmer has actually done too badly, given Labours stances over the years directly conflict with Trumps opinions, he's played a poor hand well.
We should be looking at 100% tariffs until the Online Safety Act and a raft of other legislation is repealed, instead strategic use of mouth-to-arse resuscitation has reduced the rate massively.
It's too early to say with China and India, there's a lot going on under the surface in China with regards to power, and no one is going to know until after the fact. I've no doubt China would love to have India as a client state, then the border issues can be resolved more to Beijings taste. China is also having a harder time hiding it's internal economic woes, so it's another time-will-tell if Trump has scored a victory or a loss.
Putin has played him nicely, in that relationship it's not hard to see the alpha male is very much Putin. Thankfully they've not had a White House meeting yet, the prospect of Trump putting on Lewinsky's dress for a bit of role play in the Oval Office does not bear thinking about.
With Iran, well, looks like his bigly attack didn't do what was hoped, and as ever, he shoots the messenger for daring to suggest reality may not be as Trump demands.
By and large, where things are what he understands - business deals - he stands a better chance, but abstract concepts like patriotism he may be happy to use, but his complete lack of understanding of it means he's on the back foot. He's an anywhere type playing to an audience of somewheres, which in many ways is why he probably gets on with Starmer.
Ah, sorry, you meant it metaphorically. My bad.
OT but I see that Zack Goldsmith has moved on from hypnotising single gullible women to hypnotising an entire gullible party. To be fair, if Angela Rayner was a client, it worked.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/798031/can-you-really-think-your-boobs-bigger/
"We shouldn't have exported our industry to the Far East, because they won't be so stupid as to export it back again".
As I recall from the '70s and '80s every think tank, the HBR and smartarse consultant declared we should shift manufacture to Singapore, Malaysia etc. Jolly good advice, except the policy wonks failed to figure out what would replace all those jobs standing at capstan lathes etc. Car manufacturing was a good replacement but any fool can do that anywhere. Everyone knew there was trouble on the horizon.
The philosophy, if there was one at all, was 'the market will provide'. But it didn't. Around that time the DTI wanted to boost new industry. But could only find a few measly £millions for 'awareness campaigns'. Industry was aware all right - HMG had not got any idea. And has still got no idea because there isn't any good wheeze, science failed to find any new miracle industries, the money was in property and finance.
Donald is trying to pull industry back and industry is wisely ignoring him. Our own Angela is working on the only racket the UK still has - property and taxation. All we are going to be left with is politicians, lawyers, AI systems and cockroaches. Except there is one scintilla of hope - builders - have you seen how much they charge. Forget that degree in Woke Studies, become a ticketed Sparky.
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