Returned from a couple of weeks away to find interesting news on several international fronts. One little-noticed development that particularly caught my eye is that Putin has publicly "apologised" to Aliyev for the shooting down of an Azerbaijani airliner last year, and acknowledged formally for the first time that Russian air defences were what caused the disaster. When it happened 10 months ago, Putin commiserated over the event - well, he kinda had to, it happened over Russian airspace, FFS - but said only that Ukrainian drones had been in the area. Ever since, Aliyev has been demanding full acknowledgement, apology, punishment of the guilty, and compensation; and only now does he get just the first two of these, along with a statement that the details are still being looked into. The inverted commas around "apologised" are required because of course it was done in the most ungracious, weasel-like manner. (Needless to say, the Russian 'patriotic' media space reckons Aliyev is seriously out of order for having the temerity even to mention the matter, and should be subjected to a Special Military Operation of his own as soon as, errr, resources allow.)
Why apologise now? We need to take into account something else that happened recently - when Putin went to Beijing for the VJ-Day 80th anniversary celebrations. Xi engineered things so that as Putin was going into a reception, who should he meet at the door but Aliyev, and was forced to shake his hand as though Aliyev was receiving him into the occasion. Being bounced like this went down exceedingly badly in Moscow: it was widely viewed as a humiliation for L'il Volodya.
Which it was. On massive international occasions where diplomatic choreography is everything - particularly where China is involved and symbolism is paramount - nothing like that happens by coincidence. Putin was set up then; and afterwards presumably taken aside and told to get on with the public apology. Much as Moscow likes to big up Putin sitting next to Xi, one couldn't but notice who was sitting on the other side ... Yep, it was Jong-Un the Wrong'un. That's Xi saying to the world: meet my two surly stooges - the guys who are wholly beholden to me.
Putin has never been forgiven by China for invading Georgia during the 2008 Beijing Olympics - a truly monstrous breach of protocol. It would have been against the rules even during ancient times: the Games marked a truce across the whole of Greece. But for proud, prickly China, it was an outrage. In the Jan 2008 C@W annual predictions compo, I forecast the invasion but with one erroneous detail: I said it would be after the Olympics. I mean, what kind of idiot would do it during ..?
ND
5 comments:
I see that Putin has commended Trump for his Gaza deal and referred to him as "Donald".
Since we are endlessly told that Trump is "literally Hitler" we should be trying to discover how the deal is intended to lead to a new holocaust of Jews. No doubt the Beeb and the Guardian will soon oblige. With the discovery, I mean, not the act. Though maybe not.
Never is a long time. As far as China is concerned, Russia is their ablative heatshield, and the heatshield must be kept intact. Surely the Chinese are too pragmatic to jeopardise that for reasons of face.
Can't be sure about that, anon. Face is far more important to the Chinese than we can readily empathise with. I could give examples from experience.
"Jeopardise"? They are firmly on top, and lose nothing by rubbing Putin's nose in it - what's he gonna do, eh?
I mean that they'll keep Russia vertical as long as it's in their interests, which is certainly the case at the moment. If Russia crumbled now as Brezsinski and co were hoping for, it would not be great (and they'd probably cross the Amur).
I can see in the next 40 years China becoming strong enough that they may not need a heatshield.
I agree that the Russia China power balance is flipped 180 from the Mao era.
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