If taken at face value, the 28-point plan is clever[1]. In my assessment there's only one clause that, pragmatically speaking, should give Ukraine serious pause - and we're still talking "at face value" here, as well as "pragmatic" - and that's the surrender of the territory in the Donbas they still hold: it's militarily crazy. But - on paper - there's even an answer for that.
BUT. No-one but an absolute imbecile would trust Trump with their lives - or, likewise, Putin. Neither man can be trusted to uphold even a full treaty. We are well into "It is the last territorial claim which I have to make in Europe" territory.
Trump, presumably, will be telling Zelensky he either signs or forgoes US support. Well, he's a negotiator (of sorts), he expects a bit of to and fro.
To me, they key is that even were he a man of his word, Trump couldn't deliver the "US side" of this unilaterally - it requires Europe to fall in line. No Europe, no G8 nor several other clauses in the 28. So now is the time for Europe to step in with some serious bargaining: we've seen the clear limitations of Team Trump, who evidently can't see the weaknesses in Putin's hand. Once, it seemed, the EC was capable of pretty hard-nosed negotiating - but that was before the pathetic showing over tariffs. Surely, there's someone who knows how to play serious, calculating power-politics in the whole of the continent? Surely?
Trump needs to pay for his Nobel prize, not only with serious ongoing support for Ukraine, but with a conditional set of levers on him and Russia explicitly granted to Ukraine - and Europe[2]. Russia needs to pay for all that territory it has illegally seized with an oversight regime and a structure of tripwires that will keep Putin within his (new) borders.
For completeness, let it be said that the indemnity mooted for Putin and his war crimes sticks in the craw. But that, I think, is one for Zelensky to chew on.
Finally, you gotta laugh at the implicit belief, written through this plan, that tying Russia closer with TRADE will act as some kind of guarantor of peace. Ask Merkel about that one. And - just who was it it who pointed that out to Germany in the UN ..? Yep, it was the Orange One.
So: where is Europe's unblinking hard man?
ND
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[1] 'Clever' in the sense that Witkoff, apparently an accomplished businessman but patently devoid of the slightest sense of geography, history, Realpolitik, naked evil, or his own extreme gullibility, has done a plodding, comprehensive job against a long list of desiderata: there's an answer for (almost) everything in there, provided you make a load of truly heroic and optimistic assumptions about some deeply untrustworthy individuals. He's clearly in that archetypal category of naïve-but smart Americans who see no malice in anyone and proceed in a purely rationalistic manner to address all difficulties piecemeal and with diligence. They often achieve big things (vide the grand history of the USA). But there are some things that are completely beyond them.
[2] How to define "Europe"? Well, whatever is the body of entities that is required to deliver all those clauses, that can't be done by the USA unilaterally. In fact, we could say "the other members of the G7" too, were that not to include China.
8 comments:
"So now is the time for Europe to step in with some serious bargaining: "
That'll be the Europe that is stony broke, struggling to keep the lights on due to its obsession with trace gases, deindustrialising before our very eyes (for the same reason), has divided its societies with mass immigration from alien cultures to such an extent that no one in their right mind would fight for it, and far from being a beacon of free speech and democracy is rapidly becoming a dictatorship of the elite classes that live above the negative effects of all the above. That Europe.
You're living in the past. Its not 1985 any more. There is no 'Europe', its been systematically destroyed by its rulers. Its a busted flush living in a fantasy world, like the aristocrats living in their mouldering castle while the revolutionaries plot and scheme outside its crumbling walls. Europe won't exist in 20-30 years in anything more than name, because its rulers refuse to change course, and still have enough power to prevent anyone else from doing so.
Congrats. The last man on the web who knows how to spell "forgo". Next you may prove to be the last man who knows that "criteria" is plural.
Ukraine - a large place far away about which we know rather too much. Stepping up does not really seem on the cards, more slinking into a corner and wimpering. Never bothered Gladstone when Catharine owned it and not likely to bother Starmer et al.
Unblinking hard men? You can do that if you have hardened knuckles and a good six pack and prepared to take a punch else the other side knows you are a wuss. We won't be going there, the big boy took his bat and ball away.
Degrading, but this ending suits Trump. Enjoy the advocaat, a disgusting yellow drink made from lawyers. Will we regret hiding in the corner? Probably but that is a PRQ.
Poland won’t hide in a corner. They fear the fascist Federation of Russia, today. Being next in the way once Ukraine is undemocratically absorbed.
Poland might well back Ukraine. Moving its forces to bases on their frontier.
Europe is deindustrialising like the UK only slower. They are also (like the UK) opening to China in many areas. In my lifetime such huge changes in relative world power.
There is a fantasy that if we just give more money, more weapons, or more sanctions, victory is at hand. Peace won't be made by failed diplomats or politicians living in a fantasy land. It might be made by smart people living in the real world.
Poland won't be next in line because most of Ukraine will remain. No one in Russia fancies Galicia. OTOH Odeßa and a land bridge to Transnistria ...
Have Russia actually agreed to this plan?
Poland had a rough old time in the 19th and 20th centuries, but at the end of it all it was still full of Poles, indeed thanks to Hitler and Stalin's different forms of ethnic cleansing more Polish than ever, despite borders shifting like a hula girl's hips.
Was reading the Graun today about Duralex in France, of dinky glassware fame, needing support because of energy costs. Did the State Department realise the booster they were putting under China when they organised the Maidan?
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