So the markets have begun the credit crunch correction; Governments are bailing out the Hedge funds with Billions of Dollars, Shares have taken a battering and the bottom fell out of stock today.
Is there more to follow? Will interest rates still have to rise? Did you suffer today?
Personally I was hedged, with shares and gold so should be ok. (not that my tiny investments are anything to get me excited)
16 comments:
I think it'll turn out to be a blip, or rather a pre-shock.
This isn't even the beginning of the end IMO. Too many people and institutions, and our dear Government running from their responsibilities, and more importantly with Brown, culpability, are ignoring the signs, and have done. The BBC is guilty of this because it has tried to hide how Brown has basically fucked up and continued to portray him in a good light.
We know this is global, but it will hit hard and we are as much to blame for our internal problems as the world economy.
I don't think the markets will drop massively more, maybe another 10% before they firm up, but the effect on the market will be mirrored and then some by the wider economy.
Of course the long suffering ordinary joe will feel it worse.
Turbulent times ahead unless they take drastic and swift action, and ignore the voting booth and political fall-out, but will Brown have the balls?
As to the wider global meltdown...surely sometimes it has a positive effect in cooling the vastly heated up markets and bring some sanity?
There are so many angles to think about, but here's one I'd say you can bank upon:
Strategist McBroon will be trying to find a way to turn this to his advantage
I tremble to think what appalling wealth-grab-plus-new-powers he will be scheming: it will be termed the People's Private Equity Appropriation Counter Terrorism (Financial) Act 2007
(paranoid ? moi ?)
I don't have a pension so I am fine!
I can't quite work out whether a credit crunch will force rates to fall or whether the pound's inevitable collapse will force rates to rise.
Personally, I didn't react quickly enough and go liquid, so I'll probably just "sit this one out"...
As I'm up a tad over 50% on the last 12 months I reckon that I can afford to be sanguine about a 10 - 20% drop, but I wish that I had a shedload of free cash at the moment as there should be some real steals coming up - at least once the City recovers from its normal "headless chicken in a panic" mode!
"Rocket Scientists".. Pah! More like "examining the entrails of goats" IMHO.. :-)
Well thousands of pounds have been wiped off the value of my stock options so that's me feeling rather glum and rather less wealthy.
Personally, I think for the US this is not such a big problem. Although they have huge external debts they also have a huge GDP. They can weather this. They also have the rest of the world willng to bail them out. On the way we have perhaps learned some lessons about the Chinese and the Russians that we won't forget. I have already noticed a shift in focus of investment to more pro-Western low-wage economies in eastern Europe, South America and India. It seems the attempt to undermine the commies in China by pouring money into the system has failed since the commies kept it and the people never got a taste of the high life that capitalism could offer. 50million middle class Chinese couldn't take on the 300million members of the Chinese Communist Party.
The big concern I have is that the UK has external debt almost as large as the US when you add government, personal and corporate debt together, but a far smaller GDP. Take that liquidity out of the UK and you will have a very serious recession. Personally I believe this is inevitable at some point, and the longer we carry on as we are the worse it will be for us. Today, the numbers suggest we will see 4million unemployed as we rebalance the economy and shift people out of the public sector and back into wealth creation in the private sector. We could even go technically bankrupt as a nation if domestic and commercial property falls dramatically in value, which would put us in almost exactly the same situation as we were in back in 1979, with the IMF bailing us out.
Fortunately I work in Germany and the Xetra Dax has not had such a hammering - taking the punishment during the slowdown after yr2000 by cutting public spending has left the German economy better placed. Perhaps that was wiser than trying to spend our way out of a recession by using debt.
Anon - your sources for the different UK debt stats, please?
A relevant article re volatility and sovereign wealth funds:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/sovereign-wealth-funds-BCS-BX-china-india-gazprom/index/a/13575/from/yahoo
OK, I'm an amatuer at this game but it seems to me that 700 Billion dollars of secured debt (US mortgage) is to hit the lenders big time. With US housing in freefall(?) this can only hurt large US institutions you think? Think again.... the risk has been sold all over the world - hence the credit crunch(?) Someone tell me if I'm off the ball but my guess is that new UK home buyers will soon be in for a rude awakening... If true then the UK housing market goes stagnant. Next stop: recession.
The problem isn't with the housing market as such, but the debt afforded through the housing market, and on from that, the wider economy being built on and teetering on the mountain of debt based on housing. If the housing market does crash, or even stall, and debt becomes harder to get, then the wider economy that Brown has built up to rely on it will fail, and that is when it will have a knock on effect.
Any economy built on debt is bound to fail if that debt isn't checked and ultimately put into reverse, and that is Browns genius: that he in such a very short space of time managed to fuck the economy up so badly and kept people with the misconception that they were well off.
My cash stashed around the place will come in ever handier as I try not to pay too much tax and the markets fail...
I haven't got any money to worry about, or a mortgage, or kids.
I find this all incredibly interesting in a sadistic kind of way.
Not the end of everything - the start. It was just a trial run. I hve posted on this in a longish fashion.
Good conversation here. I think the market needs a good correction and that this will stick. We may see a small rally as hedge funds play their games to try and get some money beack; but overall the game is up for the bull market.
As for the bear market if we get lucky it could last a few months or year. Unlucky and you should go see what Nourishing Obscurity thinks...
I don't think it is the "end of everything". Even if money supply becomes a problem, real wealth creation is still firing on all cylinders.
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