Saturday 22 September 2007

A Glimmer in the Gloom: GazpromWatch Part 194

No, not just England’s win against Samoa, but some rather encouraging news from, of all places, the European Commission. It is pursuing a twin-track energy policy, trying to bring about true competition in the gas and electricity markets (on the UK model, in fact) at the same time as bolstering security of supply.

German and French vested interests (not to mention Gazprom) argue you can’t have both. They are wrong: proper market design can achieve better security via more competition. However, squaring the circle isn’t just a difficult technical task for regulators and market-designers, it’s an uphill struggle against both active resistance and uncooperative dumb-insolence.

Amazingly, the Commission soldiers on undaunted, and its proposals this week are clever. Briefly, they are designed to:

(1) gain the vital benefits of 'unbundling' the operation of infrastructure from commercial energy-supply, without forcing the aforesaid vested interests actually to divest themselves of the infrastructure. Unbundling is a sine qua non of competitive markets, and mere ‘administrative separation’ has completely failed to work the trick. Full divestment would be best; but placing the operatorship in the hands of an independent third party (as happens in the UK where regional monopolies are unwilling to divest, i.e. Scotland) is a pretty satisfactory second-best.

(2) keep European energy markets open for inward investment without allowing, err, Gazprom (or Algeria's Sonatrach), to buy controlling interests until it has met several important tests (don’t hold your breath).

Gazprom has been relatively restrained in its immediate response to these moves. They’d prefer the field to be left wide open to their divide-and-rule tactics, but the Commission is proving remarkably focussed on its twin aims, and Gazprom will need to find ways to play ball under the new rules. Take a bow, Jose Manuel Barroso, Andris Piebalgs and 'Steely Neelie' Kroes.

ND

13 comments:

Steven_L said...

Privatising and de-regulating utilities is a great idea. It gives the consumer more choice - and me more opportunities to make lots of money slamming the consumers!

I like Redwood's idea of allowing Southerners to buy Northumbrian Water and vice-versa. I'm hope they do it. I'll get a contract from Northumbrian Water and come down there and slam all you metered folk with 'cheaper' water.

Nick Drew said...

Mark - couldn't agree more, but we can only get there step at a time

There are a couple of very helpful factors in this case, which in conjunction with the Commission's determination lead me to cautious optimism:

- France is already highly integrated into the European electricity market at the wholesale level, both physically (interconnections) and commercially, since it exports so much power. This forces them to play by (some of) the rules to a large extent

- they are already highly dependent on gas imports, and will want the benefits of interconnection & trade there too, this time for security of supply. With gas, they need to be prized away from their blinkered approach to strategic storage: but on this we have something to learn from them, too.

Need to be realistic about timing though (= pas d'escargots). And we've already predicted they will be playing a little game on nuclear decommissioning ...

http://cityunslicker.blogspot.com/2007/07/this-if-big-one.html

Nick Drew said...

Steven - it's a great idea and has been around for quite a while - water, the last great commodity, it's crying out for a traded market.

Interestingly, Enron (who pioneered trading in gas, then electricity, then paper-n-pulp, then coal etc etc & were trying for broadband and property-indices when it all went belly-up) had a crack at this. But they quickly recognised it was too soon. So they bundled it all up as Azurix, 'floated' (!) it off at a huge profit ... and let it sink.

Timing is everything !

Anonymous said...

Just pointing out in my rush to agree...but the EU costs us billions and works for us...should we really be congratulating it for getting something right?

And Mark...you are 100% right about those frog twats, and their German lackeys will follow suit too.

Old BE said...

Water is all very well, but isn't it rather expensive to transport around the place?

Steven_L said...

No one actually transports it around the place Ed. Deregulation doesn't work like that. It just means anyone can sell anyone elses water sort of.

Nick Drew said...

Shots - given the ongoing EU nonsenses we have to suffer, I just like to give credit on the odd occasion when it's due ... (oh, and I like to be warm in winter, too !)

Ed, Steven - you don't literally need to transport the stuff from your own sources to the end-customer, but you do need a central 'clearing' market where the stuff can actually be traded physically at the wholesale level, between the big players.

There is a proposal to facilitate this in the UK by linking some of the major canal systems, which would establish a 'wholesale market' (& since water finds its own level, transport would be quite cheap). Apparently, with only a few extra miles of new interconnections, a vast percentage of the water companies in England could be linked up in this way.

Old BE said...

I realise that the gas in my pipes and the electricity isn't generated by the people I buy it from, but a water network would need the facility for Thames Water, say, to be able to put water in so that supply in Manchester could be maintained, wouldn't it?

Nick Drew said...

Ed - yes, that's pretty much it: there needs to be some central clearing mechanism where the wholesaler puts in as much as their customers (wherever they are) take out

Of course this can happen in several ways:

- actually pump in some water to the wholesale network from wherever the wholesaler usually gets it, and get credited accordingly

- buy some on the wholesale market and pump it in (it would probably be 'in' already, since the physical trade in a wholesale market usually takes place at some central point in an integrated / interconnected network)

- be allowed to run a short position on some exchange, or within some 'balancing rules' of the network

- take it from storage somewhere

Of course, for this to work you need a ... *wait for it* ... liquid market !

Seriously, though ...

Anonymous said...

I don't thin it needs to work this way at all. What you need to do is spearate out the delivery of water from the delivery of the actual service. You pay the service provider, who then has to decide at what point he trades off the needs of the share-holders with the needs of the end customer - prices too high will hurt consumers are drive them into the hands of a competitor. Prices too low will hurt the share price. Games will be played depending on the likely weather outlook. Service providers will pay for delivery wholesale but will negotiate depending on the exact nature of the deal. Water wholesalers will continue to be regulated by Ofwat.

Nick Drew said...

Hmm - you may have something there but I'm not sure I exactly follow it

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