Munching our popcorn (while we still have fuel to heat it up) & waiting for Trump to crash and burn ...
We've discussed before the AI bubble, its seemingly inevitable forthcoming bursting, and the system-crashing potential it might hold. Well here's something to give anyone pause:
 |
| Source: CHARTR / date from Bloomberg |
It's pretty remarkable to me that Uber needed such a long runway - surely its only major assets are software? Tesla looks pretty outstanding value & commercial discipline[1] by comparison - and Musk was shooting for the moon, with serious hardware involved, as well as software.
But why am I gazing at the foothills? Because then we step back and look at the mammoth on the mountain, and - wow! What type of revenues do they "forecast" - and persuade investors of - to make that even vaguely sane? And OpenAI isn't alone out there. What kind of economy can afford their products on the necessary scale?
Sometimes you have to look at something - a bullion price spike, a US president - and just tell yourself the obvious conclusion is the correct one. That Is Insane.
And the US economy[2] has been wagered on this? Hello China - the rest of the century belongs to you.
ND
PS: for something more edifying on AI, try this:
__________________
[1] One would need to interrogate that tapering-off of the black bars: was it Tesla that bought X? Had greenie car buyers lost faith in Musk even before 2025 and his rogue DOGE behaviour?
[2] And I'm the one that has said, many times: in the long run, never bet against the US economy ...
