Monday, 30 June 2008

The Scorched Earth Strategy Rolls On

“This is a green revolution in the making... It is the most dramatic change in our energy policy since the advent of nuclear power". (Gordon Brown)

And presumably quite urgent ? Well apparently not.
While I was abroad last week the clunking Renewables Strategy paper was published, as trailed, and it turns out to be merely a consultation exercise, to inform measures that will be put in place next year. For those who believe the ‘revolution’ to be vitally necessary, this is like opening a 9-month consultation in September 1939 on what might be done in response to Herr Hitler’s encroachments in Poland.
Reading between the lines, it’s fair to say the authors of this document clearly have no realistic expectations of the UK’s share of the EU renewables target being met ("in a market economy, policy alone cannot guarantee outcomes"). Unlike the ‘legally binding’ approach adopted to the UK CO2 emissions targets - whatever that might mean in practice - no such strictures are being adopted on renewables.
And, let’s be clear, this is another of the Cluncker’s scorched earth measures. This strategy will cost us all a lot of hard £££ (3% of GDP is probably the most realistic estimate), but not just yet. Here’s the key sentiment in the document:
“costs will translate into higher energy prices, but the impacts will not be felt until after 2010There will be no immediate impact on bills. The impact will increase as 2020 approaches and our renewable deployment rises, particularly post 2015”
Now, remind me – when is the next General Election to be held ? Ahhh, I see ...


Anonymous said...

Somewhere, there is a stupid bugger in a pub explaining that if we are running out of oil we'll just have to rely on electricity. Unfortunately, he's a cabinet minister.

Nick Drew said...

so it would seem !

Old BE said...

ND, at what oil price* (roughly) do you think renewables start to look properly - i.e. subsidy-free - viable for electricity production?

* because it's regularly quoted not because we burn much oil to generate the "electric"

Nick Drew said...

BE - needless to say there's no simple answer to that :+)

Anything with zero or low variable cost (wind, nuc) that's already been built, becomes ever more stonkingly profitable the higher overall energy prices get (yet somehow they still ask for their subsidies ... there really should be a rate-of-return cap on subsidies: remember this when you next hear calls for windfall taxes on oil co.s !)

For renewables that burn stuff (bio-fuels, waste, diseased livestock carcasses etc) it's not the same dynamic at all, because the prices of their 'green' fuels tend to rise with the price of oil

For the full-life-cycle economics of new-build renewables, frustratingly, it's a moving target: the costs of (e.g.) wind turbines are going through the roof because everything that requires energy technology + engineering must compete for the same, frighteningly limited, pool of resources

and of course the cost of debt affects everyone the same, and that's going up too

Mr RW, who comments here on these issues, might have some numbers - but they'd just be a snapshot in time

having said all this, believe me, the renewables industry is rolling in £££ - and they are becoming a pretty ruthless (did I hear unscrupulous?) lobby ... the main thing that holds them back is planning consent ! (which then means even larger windfalls for those who succeed in getting permits, because it keeps the amount of 'green' energy a scare resource)

Old BE said...

Interesting stuff Mr D. As ever I asked a very simplistic and unanswerable question. I will be asking another in due course!!

rwendland said...

BE/ND: Unfortunately I haven't seen any recent decent wind power cost estimates. It is possible inshore wind is unsubsidised competitive with nuclear, now we know nuclear build costs are probably in the $4,500 to $7,000/kWe overnight cost range, if wind build costs have increased say less than 50% lately.

I think coal is the cheapest option now, but who knows what will happen within a few years. My guess is that the current uncertainties creates a high cost of capital, favouring cheap-build gas in the short term. (ND?) It does strike me that the government creating more certainty by regulation, reducing future risk and cost of capital, might usefully help all forms of higher capital cost/lower running cost generation.

For background, using ~2006 costs, the recent anti-severn barrage report annex has a decent comprehensive alternative generation cost estimate comparison, with a discount rate sensitivity analysis. A reasonable intro on comparative costs, but out-of-date I think because of large engineering cost increases of the last two years.

Mark Wadsworth said...

That was last week. This week coal is back in fashion!

Keep up at the back, Drew!

Anonymous said...

I might prefer to use the phrase " Poisoned Chalice" to descibe the whole raft of legislation coming at the fag-end of Nu Labs dismal administration.
Some, like the abolition of local democracy in planning matters ( to railroad eco-towns and wind farms ) and the demoralisation of the voluntary sector by

are already a done deal; others like the gathering of power within unelected Regional Development Agencies are works in progress ( note how many quangos are being re-designed geographically to match them, everything from Sport England to the Lottery and the Fire Brigade, sorry, Service); yet others, eg 42 days, just about in place and with Harmons " equality " nonsense (which will entrench vast numbers of their clientele within the public services) having plenty of time to reach the statute books ( as Nu Labs response to Multi-Culti being rightly rubbished ) before Gordon is ousted.
Dave will have his work cut out just to list those Acts needing immediate repeal ( after hunting, natch).

Thank you Nick Drew for explaining the economics of the energy debate; btw, I understand that the Russian Mafia are already enjoying huge profits from flogging dodgy 'carbon credits' here there and everywhere.

ps. I could have argued this more eloquently but it has been a long day at the coalface, as it were.

Nick Drew said...

thanks, RW. Yes, gas is always the fall-back when the brown-outs start (easy, reliable, clean-ish, comes in decent-sized units)

my own enthusiasm for (hyper-super) coal is undiminished, Mark

as you know !

thanks for dropping in, Mr Bloke - yes, Big Dave may well be passed a poisoned chalice. there will be some things he (and Boris) can sort fairly easily, others less so. We've been looking at the scorched-earth business for a while, here & here

can't rule out dodgy CO2 credits, particularly from projects in, how shall we say, Asian countries that have somehow qualified under the various 'mechanisms' linked to the EU ETS. But, remarkably, there are no aspersions yet (that I'm aware of) being cast on the EUAs being issued in any of the EU countries themselves, even though everyone is poised to be suspicious about certain national Registries we could name, but won't ...

Anonymous said...

"I am sure there are plenty of other more subtle or clever ways they could perform a scorched earth strategy ". C@W May 7th 2008

Golly, you don't suppose that Gordon would drag us into the Euro by way of a leaving present do you ?

Anonymous said...

aaaa片, 免費聊天, 咆哮小老鼠影片分享區, 金瓶梅影片, av女優王國, 78論壇, 女同聊天室, 熟女貼圖, 1069壞朋友論壇gay, 淫蕩少女總部, 日本情色派, 平水相逢, 黑澀會美眉無名, 網路小說免費看, 999東洋成人, 免費視訊聊天, 情色電影分享區, 9k躺伯虎聊天室, 傑克論壇, 日本女星杉本彩寫真, 自拍電影免費下載, a片論壇, 情色短片試看, 素人自拍寫真, 免費成人影音, 彩虹自拍, 小魔女貼影片, 自拍裸體寫真, 禿頭俱樂部, 環球av影音城, 學生色情聊天室, 視訊美女, 辣妹情色圖, 性感卡通美女圖片, 影音, 情色照片 做愛, hilive tv , 忘年之交聊天室, 制服美女, 性感辣妹, ut 女同聊天室, 淫蕩自拍, 處女貼圖貼片區, 聊天ukiss tw, 亞亞成人館, 777成人, 秋瓷炫裸體寫真, 淫蕩天使貼圖, 十八禁成人影音, 禁地論壇, 洪爺淫蕩自拍, 秘書自拍圖片,

做愛的漫畫圖片, 情色電影分享區, 做愛ㄉ影片, 丁字褲美女寫真, 色美眉, 自拍俱樂部首頁, 日本偷自拍圖片, 色情做愛影片, 情色貼圖區, 八國聯軍情色網, 免費線上a片, 淫蕩女孩自拍, 美國a片, 都都成人站, 色情自拍, 本土自拍照片, 熊貓貼圖區, 色情影片, 5278影片網, 脫星寫真圖片, 粉喵聊天室, 金瓶梅18, sex888影片分享區, 1007視訊, 雙贏論壇, 爆爆爽a片免費看, 天堂私服論壇, 情色電影下載, 成人短片, 麗的線上情色小遊戲, 情色動畫免費下載, 日本女優, 小說論壇, 777成人區, showlive影音聊天網, 聊天室尋夢園, 義大利女星寫真集, 韓國a片, 熟女人妻援交, 0204成人, 性感內衣模特兒, 影片, 情色卡通, 85cc免費影城85cc, 本土自拍照片, 成人漫畫區, 18禁, 情人節阿性,

Anonymous said...

情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 言情小說, 愛情小說, 色情A片, 情色論壇, 色情影片, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊美女, 視訊交友, ut聊天室, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, a片下載, av片, A漫, av dvd, av成人網, 聊天室, 成人論壇, 本土自拍, 自拍, A片, 愛情公寓, 情色, 舊情人, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 情色交友, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊, 情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 色情a片, 一夜情, 辣妹視訊, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊, 視訊美女, 美女視訊, 視訊交友, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, 情人視訊網, 影音視訊聊天室, 視訊交友90739, 成人影片, 成人交友,

免費A片, 本土自拍, AV女優, 美女視訊, 情色交友, 免費AV, 色情網站, 辣妹視訊, 美女交友, 色情影片, 成人影片, 成人網站, A片,H漫, 18成人, 成人圖片, 成人漫畫, 情色網, 日本A片, 免費A片下載, 性愛, 成人交友, 嘟嘟成人網, 成人電影, 成人, 成人貼圖, 成人小說, 成人文章, 成人圖片區, 免費成人影片, 成人遊戲, 微風成人, 愛情公寓, 情色, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 做愛, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 寄情築園小遊戲, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊,

Anonymous said...

You may probably be very interested to know how one can manage to receive high yields on investments.
There is no need to invest much at first.
You may commense to get income with a money that usually is spent
for daily food, that's 20-100 dollars.
I have been participating in one company's work for several years,
and I'll be glad to let you know my secrets at my blog.

Please visit blog and send me private message to get the info.

P.S. I earn 1000-2000 per day now. [url=]Online Investment Blog[/url]