Tuesday, 20 January 2009
Obama day - no way up from here
After the share price crash yesterday today will be the turn of an Obama rally. Perhaps, however if there was a market in Obama shares now would be the time to sell.
After all, the City mantra goes 'Buy the rumour, sell the news.'
Obama is being feted everywhere in the world in all media, full stop. I have read nothing for days that is not positive. I wish him well, but by pure logic alone, this must be the high point. How could he get more popular?
He has a truly dreadful situation to inherit which is not going to be fixed with a fine speech and a wand. The US is also entangled in expensive long-term wars abroad which it can no longer afford.
Obama has appointed a select bunch of team Bush and team Clinton. This suggests continuity not revolution. So more of the same we have had until now.
There are many comparisons to Tony Blair here I feel - also elected on a wave of spin generated euphoria.
To end, the political mantra: All political careers end in failure.
UPDATE: Well the speech sets him up nicely. Lots of fine words while studiously avoiding subsance. Not even a tiny micro-bounce in the DOW or S&P.