Election 2015

Its time to put yourselves forward. The great day of reckoning is at hand.

And so that means the vote share predictor.

in the comments

1. Liberal Democrat seats

2. SNP seats

3. UKIP seats

4. Conservative seats

5. Who will be prime minister in 20 days time?

Iain Dale, the grandaddy of blogging, whose return to t'internet is still going on and his blog is as good as it ever was in the years before he quit blogging for broadcasting, has done a seat by seat election profile. 
It is really quite remarkable. The sort of things the party specialists do. Only they have much more data to rely on.

Mr Dale has done not just a uniform swing but had a look at incumbency benefits..scandals..political record. Local record. Voter makeup and such and predicted a winner for every seat. Its well worth a look here. 

He even revised all his seats with information from the latest Ashcroft polls and adjusted a few seats for late surges or local issues. I'm very surprised more hasn't been made of this by some of the broadcasters. it would certainly fill a few silences to look over it during election night.

The LBC man  predicts

*Conservative 276
Labour 267
Liberal Democrat 23 UKIP 5 SNP 54
Plaid Cymru 4
Respect 1
Green 1 DUP 9
Sinn Fein 5 SDLP 3
Independent 2

Giving no one a majority and no possibility of a coalition between anyone UNLESS Miliband is overthrown and a pro SNP candidate steps in. 
{50% of unite members are in Scotland are SNP voters. Len might decide he doesn't want half his members forming their own union and demand a left wing government take office.}

Not as outlandish as it may seem. Batty Hatty, who would become temporary leader if Miliband resigned or found that old dagger he used to carry about, plunged into his own back, , would sup with the devil for the title of First Labour Prime Ministress.

At the bottom is the final poll of polls for Wednesday.

So ..predict away .
Winner gets to go to Belgium and ask what do we do now?

Conservative

273 (-34)

Labour

268 (+10)

Liberal Democrat

28 (-29)

UKIP

2 (+2)

SNP

56 (+50)

Green

1 (0)

Other

22 (+1)

RESULT

HUNG PARLIAMENT, CON LEAD BY 5