Well they are at it again. Here's how the highly-remunerated eejits at the investment banks' analyst departments see the price of US crude oil (usually lower than the Brent price, though not much so just now) for 1Q and 2Q 2016. Yup, that's this quarter and next.
1Q 2Q
Barclays 29 33 (go Barclays! - you stand half a chance ...)
SocGen 32 38
JPMorgan 33 49
ING 35 40
BoA 36 42
Morgan S 38 43
Citi 40 44
Std Chrt 44 53
Goldmans 45 50
Deutsche 45 50
Cr.Suisse 47 56
UBS 50 50 (also 4Q last year - what is it with UBS and 50 ??)

If any of these people are right, it will only be on the stopped-clock principle. I have their numbers for 3Q and 4Q, too - and who knows, we may return to them later in the year. Now, remind me: how are things panning out just at the minute ..?
ND
10 comments:
...with Iran about to come back on stream and a lot of the current demand coming from people buying oil and keeping it on boats, do you still think we are in undershoot territory?
There's a fine opportunity here for HMG to raise some revenue by increasing fuel duty, and claiming that it's all about stabilising the forecourt price of diesel and petrol. It might also give them the chance to cut fuel duty shortly before the next General Election. Irresistible!
I was surprised George didn't do that in November. He could have linked it to the abandoned police cuts and got away with it.
As the dollar strengthens oil price weakens - yet another bearish indicator.
Although, the quicker the price falls the more disruption to US shale output and so, to some extent the faster the glut will come to an end and a re-balance occur.
I was told by tin foil hatter yesterday that Iran and Russia are planning to engineer an event that will act as a geopolitical break on incessant falling...
CU interesting @the tinfoil bit - I always thought it was the US engineerung events in those type of narratives?
Bit like the one about the Saudi's great scheme to not lower production was them trying to break Russia/ US Shale / Iran (*)
(*) Select nation of your choice dependent on prejudice and egocentricity to fit with your own views.
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