UBS 50And where is WTI just now? $44, since you asked: it's been below $50 for four months. And these people have jobs! - as my mother-in-law says. Well, I suppose there are a few more weeks left in 4Q for something to come along and restore the average back up to, errrr, $84 ...
Barclays 52
SocGen 54
Bank of America 57
Deutsche 57.5
Intesa SanPaulo 62
Morgan Stanley 70
Commerzbank 72
ING 73
Std Chartered 84
Here are some things they should think about carefully, from the famous BP Statistical Review, 2015 edition. Exhibit One:
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| There's a lot of oil in them thaar hills Source: BP |
Oh yes, plenty of oil'n'gas around: good luck to the Greens and all who believe in peak-anything. Where next? Well I'm staying out of the forecasting business, that's for sure.
ND
10 comments:
Quite the more important sttistic is oil usage growth which is tited to global GDP. That still grows too but imports to china are shrinking; no future rise for oil prices until a major event hits the world again.
Russia must be having fun with this price.
That really is quite impressively poor forecasting.
Early next year I look forwards to reading the 'how we got it so wrong' reports from these people.
If they don't produce one, they really should look for another method of passing time.
"And these people have jobs! - as my mother-in-law says."
Very good :-)
I spend quality time reading stuff on this subject. It is very complicated and intricate and difficult, it is not economics as we know it, Jim. The site Energy Matters is very useful. There are too many balls in the air as the juggler said when he fell into the orchestra pit.
The Greens dropped the Peak Oil scare a while ago now (it's always fun to remind them of it).
They've moved on to using lies, bullying and legislation to keep it in the ground.
DtP - actually par for the course, the hisory of professional price forecasting is appalling
my all-time favourite was the much-touted chief economist of a well-known firm of 'econometricians' (widely and endlessly quoted on MSN: no names, though, mustn't get into slander here) who, at a private conference for his subscribers in December 2007, stated categorically that there would be no banking crisis and no recession
in his deathless words "for a nearly decade now we have been been enjoying the Great Moderation - low inflation, low interest rates, low unemployment. This is because the governments of the world have at last discovered how to run their economies. They aren't going to forget how to do it now"
fucking idiot (that's vulgar abuse - permitted under the, Act M'Lud)
BTW, he is still the much-touted chief economist ...
$84? No wonder Standard Chartered's share price is absolutely in the shit.
Nice comment in the economist espresso this am
... "Oil prices are at the mercy of market forces for once, rather than the whims of a rent seeking cartel."
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