Monday 5 December 2016

Italy continues Populist trend

Whatever you think, Bepe Grillo and his Cinque Stella movement are utterly nuts.


They are in origination closer to the Monster Raving Loony Party than UKIP.


With success, they have moved to have some actual policies which are suitably anti-elitist. Leave the Euro etc. All in good order really. Even better, the EU approach of appointing PM's from Berlin and Brussels has been proven a failure, hopefully this pathetic experiment will not be re-tried for the sake of the poor countries subjected to it.


Italy itself remains ungovernable, split into regions and hampered by the populace happily ignoring nasty things likes rules, regulations and taxes (makes it a great Country, I love visiting!).


For the UK, the May Brexit plan is perhaps working out. Fillon or Le Pen, Grillo or Berlusconi, the people in charge of the EU will be markedly more friendly to the UK next year. Merkel will be more isolated - though looking at her history this won't bother her much.


Meanwhile, still trying to find the most leveraged way to short these Italian banks....

10 comments:

Steven_L said...

Meanwhile, still trying to find the most leveraged way to short these Italian banks....

I'll write you an OTC warrant or cfd if you like? How much you after? Say a 20% margin? Or 10% of you wanna pay by Western Union?

Lord Blagger said...

Borrow lots of money from them.

Ask them for a CDS contract on their own name, has to be cheap.

Make sure a netting contract is in place.

CityUnslicker said...

I have thought of some really good stuff, much better than just gambling on them! I intend to see what we can do re their asset base and desperate need to raise capital.

andrew said...

Be careful. The eu/e box will do just about anything to stop a bank collapse

Blue Eyes said...

Andrew beat me to it. The Italian banks are an existential threat to the Euro and Draghi is refuelling his big bazooka this week. Don't ignore the possibility of a massive fudge.

Steven_L said...

I intend to see what we can do re their asset base and desperate need to raise capital.

Using the thesis there will be a fire sale or that the ECB will buy at over the odds?

Electro-Kevin said...

'Populist' is a pejorative expression, you know.

Bill Quango MP said...

Its the Tyranny of the vast, vast majority EK.

CityUnslicker said...

My entire plan rests on the fact that everything will be firesale rated for the next too months and then when the bazooka comes out will be re-rated upward quickly. Same as happened as with Greece!

Suff said...

You'll have to be quick CU. The bazooka is already out but it will be reduced to a pop gun. The effect is diminished with every shot, as they stumble from one calamity to another, their only response is to print some paper and kick the can. Who's going to be holding this wall of IOUs when everybody has left ( I think it should be the Belgians, they've had a good run at everybody's expense). I've emptied mi post office account and cashed in mi greenshield stamps and I'm betting the lot on a piano wire emporium.