Thar she blows, £3,549. What now? Some observations and considerations:
- Electricity prices[1] are driving gas prices now (in case you didn't know), thanks to France and its chronic dependency on chronic nukes. Ironic, huh, Macron?
- Speaking of which: no point in whimpering about Ukraine. Completely out of our hands. Always was. Might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb. (Please don't tell me that if we, alone in the west[2], had told Zelensky to surrender and begged Putin to give us a special supply of cheap gas and oil, this would all have gone away.)
- Courtesy of CU (constructively engaged elsewhere): unless you can reduce demand for energy (and/or increase supply), whatever your chosen means of paying for this, it's massively inflationary. Which we've been talking about since Feb last year - the only surprising thing is, how long it's taken.
- Truss[3] needs to get her act together right now - the political vacuum will leave her gasping for air in three weeks time[4].
- All the "big schemes" floated so far are for residential customers only: what about business?
- Where are the plans for rationing? Up until now, "ministers have let it be understood" they think that energy use is a matter for individual choice. Suddenly, they are starting to talk about "encouraging people to use less". Won't wash. Germans and French seem to recognise this.
- This is war. The population needs to understand that their politicians understand. Will somebody kindly act accordingly?
ND
_________________
[1] Q: So what's the driver of electricity prices now? A: Industrial demand destruction, in Europe and in China.
[2] As I said in March, the ignorance of western politicians (particularly in Germany), as to what the Ukraine thing would mean in energy terms, was complete. Putin has been undone by this ignorance: and so have we all.
[3] Q: Who'd want to be PM at a time like this? A: They all would! That's what they're like!
[4] Government silence is allowing every grandstanding opportunist, Lab/ Lib/SNP, to say "just freeze the cap for [6][12][24] months" [circle your choice here]. Soon, people will assume that'd be something we could just do, rather easily. Even the BBC accepts that isn't true, but it won't be long before it takes hold.
96 comments:
Back to the 1940s. I remember it well -- ice on the inside of the windows in the morning, getting into a freezing bed, water bottles that caused chilblains, my father cutting down a big poplar tree in the garden for firewood. Power cuts. Low gas pressure (for cooking).
Bread rationing. Sweets scarcely available.
Well, at least we have double glazing now, and Microwave and halogen ovens which use less power than traditional cookers.
Don
DonC
Ice was on the the inside of my bedroom window in the morning.
That was 1983.
I cannot sleep unless the bed is cold.
Time to short everything other than chinese PV manufacturers etc
What's the answer then? One last massive spunk of cash to bail out the proles (Inflation Reduction Act, UK)?
And what happens after the energy crisis? A recession, falling house prices and demands for cash to bail out those in negative equity.
The British people need a good hard shock to make them learn that the government (and by extension, other taxpayers) isn't responsible for their financial problems - they are. If polls are to be believed, people still think renewables are the answer!
Time to get fracking and making more holes in the north sea?
The magic money tree came to the rescue of the banks in 2008. Then in 2020/21 it gave us furlough. So you forgive people for thinking that the MMT will come to the rescue, yet again. Indeed, ND says that this is 'economic war', by which he means, I think, that unlimited borrowing and spending is the order of the day.
Except, this is a crisis of supply, not lack of demand. So I don't really see that handing out wads of cash, willy-nilly, is really going to help, especially if the deglobalization disruption is due to last for several years (as some folks think).
@andrew - I can empathise, one of the reasons I enjoyed being in the Sahara in winter was it was nice and toasty during the day, and lovely and cold at night.
I'd also look at shorting anything Chinese, they're currently in disaster mode.
I'm still of the opinion Truss won't reach Canning's number of days in office, and after the fifth may stick a wedge on that to cover next years bills if I'm right.
She does not strike me as an adult, Sunak might be sentient teflon and with a raft of dodgy decisions behind him, but he at least seems to have an idea of the scale of the problem.
Truss looks like she'll just ask someone to turn the country off and back on again, see if that'll do the trick.
@ND - with freezing the cap, there's also the unfortunate example of France and EDF.
Everyone is, understandably, looking at the headline figure, and the fact they've been effectively nationalised as a result just sweetens the pot for many.
No one's looking at the bottom line of what it's currently costing the French taxpayer, what it will in the future, and what it'll cost if EDF win their case against the French government.
Those EDF nukes did help the French greatly for several decades, just as the North Sea oil and gas helped us. The mistake, in both cases, was not planning for afterwards.
Don
Fairly pervasive gossip in energy trading that there’s market manipulation. I’m too lowly and not involved in the trading floor directly myself, so I don’t have anything more concrete to add than those rather vague insinuations.
If so, it’ll all end in tears, for some, any road up.
As Nelsons sailors said when going into action.
FOR WHAT WE ARE ABOUT TO RECEIVE MAY THE LORD MAKE US TRULY THANKFULL.
@ DJK - ND says that this is 'economic war', by which he means, I think, that unlimited borrowing and spending is the order of the day
No, I don't (though there will be some, for sure). What I mean is, the population (which is understandably just stunned) needs to be properly prepared for the rigours ahead, of all kinds, not offered a very thin diet of "there'll be support (unspecified)", and lulled into the thought that maybe there's some kind of painless solution on offer if only the wicked Tories will get on with it
You're right that in commodity terms it's a crisis of supply. The thing is, that was true 12 months ago before Putin's machinations (which had already begun in the gas market) cut in. So it's outright market manipulation overlaying the laws of supply and demand, which would have been under some stress even before he started playing his hand.
Market mechanisms alone are not up to this. (I have dedicated my working life to freeing up market mechanisms in gas and electricity, starting in the very bad old days of monopolies everywhere; and I bow to no man in my enthusiasm for, and practical knowledge of, what properly-regulated markets can achieve.) BUT, being something of an expert in these matters, from before there were any markets at all in gas/elec to when they became deep and liquid, I know very well the technical pre-conditions for them to function effectively. And they no longer exist: gross distortions abound and LIQUIDITY, the #1 pre-condition, is seriously hampered right now. The global energy markets are not by any means dead, but they are exhibiting very unhealthy symptoms.
@ CH - yes, the French example is being bandied around, in some very ignorant ways: and it's badly misleading if people don't understand (as they mostly don't) that the position for France S.A. is very much worse than for UK plc right now. Supply crisis, right? And they have a really big supply issue, as does Germany.
But the French have moved into a can-kicking strategy which allows them and others to foster a bit of denial for a few more months at least. That's not in any way "illicit" on the part of Macron - it's his strategic choice. You can suspend the law of gravity for as long as you are willing to throw money at it. How long should that be? That's a political choice. But most unhelpful, if it's misleading the populace at large.
Again, HMG needs to be out there on these matters. "French are bonkers" should be an easy sell in the right spin-doctor's hands
@ Clive - Fairly pervasive gossip in energy trading that there’s market manipulation
Lots of things here.
(a) the biggest manipulator of all is Putin, see above
(b) yes, most commodity traders are minting money, but mostly because (i) they all went long back in Jan-Feb 2021 (when I first started writing about this - it was Really Obvious); how else do you think Centrica / Octopus etc have survived at all?
and (ii) because they know how to make money out of volatility, which we are seeing on an unprecedented scale. Is that manipulation? Not necessarily: it's them monetising some carefully-assembled and very specialised (and costly) technical capabilities. They, at least, provide some vastly-needed LIQUIDITY (see above). Sometimes, some players do try to exacerbate vol illicitly for exploitative purposes. But right now, they've no need! In fact, I'm willing to bet that, such has been the magnitude of unparalleled swings and lurches in the market, some traders will have been badly burned by being too clever by half, and ending up heavily on the wrong side of something very ugly and unexpected
(c) I don't remotely rule out some clever scams being perpetrated as well: but ...
(d) ... just wait and see what happens if HMG under-writes the wholesale energy buyers! That'll be 10 times bigger & worse than the PPE scandals during 2020. Maybe 50 times bigger. It's just mind-blowing.
My rationing scheme"
(1) No gas or electricity for socialists.
(2) That's it.
"(1) No gas or electricity for socialists."
Or those in favour of Net Zero.
I wonder what sort of note Boris will leave in his desk drawer when at last he goes. "There is no money and no gas and all the repair bills are due very soon", is one possibility.
I should think Truss or Sunak will be in no hurry to take up the chair. Nothing but trouble and political immolation beckons. Are thoughts of 'blood/toil/tears/sweat' and Starmer at the table likely to achieve anything? In 1940 the UK had a strong industrial base built on coal and surrounded by fish. We had so many merchant ships the Germans could sink a few every day and we could survive. Churchill had it comparatively easy.
We now have a service/finance industry base. Coal is verboten and the industrial base needed to do wind/solar/nuclear/gas/oil is not in our hands. Downing Street can say what it likes but not much will happen. We don't have coal and steel workers to shovel a bit harder and turning up the music on Workers Playtime is not going to cut the English mustard.
Power consumption is the problem and the elephant in the room is 'people consume power'. Ergo having fewer people might help. Up to a point. The answer is obvious but unpleasant to contemplate - set the cutoff at age 70. That should go down well at conference come October - take the chop for Britain!
An an ex-monopoly guy - one of the advantages of the monopolies in energy was their ability to hold deep reserves of knowledge in the form of people. When they were swept away, the knowledge was lost to be replaced by MBA's with the theory but lacking in the practicalities of applying them.
We're now at the mercy of those smart(?) algorithms that no-one really understand except for a few which set prices on the basis of historical trends that really won't be repeated for another half-century.
Take a bow ND.
@ Nick Drew
Yes, I agree -- there's way too much mislabelling legitimate trading profits from making the right (as they turn out to be) market futures' calls as "excessive profits" or market manipulation. We either have capitalism, or a state-controlled command economy. One, or the other, please, politicians. Not both.
The only thing I would add, though, is to comment on how poorly-designed a lot of markets -- especially, especially, European ones, are. The EU likes to pretend they're markets because that's what it calls them. But they're really not. They're too thinly traded (in normal times), too few market makers, too few customers and too few suppliers, operating under too much batty regulation. It's like pretending you've got a large, thriving assortment of supermarkets and retail distribution chains, but everyone in the country has to in reality go to Mr. Patel's corner shop.
It kind-a works, after a fashion, so long as everyone only goes a couple of times a year and don't all arrive at once. As soon as everyone wants to stock up on wine for Christmas, though, there's a massive queue, temporary stock shortages and Mr. Patel puts up his prices not only because he can, but because he has to destroy some of the unmanageable (as it has become) demand.
But to go back to what you said, if this is the system that's been created, why shouldn't some adept and well-informed "market participants" exploit the inadequacies? The only qualm I have is if it is Russia which is leveraging woefully set up trading schemes, that's not just a financial implication, it's a national security one, too. But I suppose, again, you can't even blame Russia for weaponizing EU (and UK too) shoddy market design.
Hello, please spare a thought for those of us who are on oil and bottled gas. No one seems to be be aware of our existence and the price cap does not apply to us. I have written to the BBC and the Times and my local MP. Looking at that list of contacts does rather blow my cover as a signed up member of the middle class.
All the best
Charles
Charles - not just you: there are folks on district heating schemes similarly placed.
contrast the rationing and restriction messaging in France and Germany, to the non messaging in the UK.
‘Help is on the way!’ Vs public buildings with limited lighting. Limited heating. Limited transport. Business rationing..
Most on here will remember the pubs being closed almost all of the time in the UK. Before the late Thatcher, Major, Blair era.
11pm closing time
Closed between 3pm and 5pm.
10.30pm closed on Sundays. Which had restricted hours all day.
Those were temporary World War One era restrictions. That were in place for seventy five years.
If Extinction Idiots were actual greens instead of anarchists, they would realise their day has come. Even more so than the total Covid restrictions, they could ensure all their insulation fantasies come true within three years.
Last winter I bought a load of IKEA rechargeable batteries and lamps. I use them in the evening to go to bed by. Also an air fryer because it only takes 10 minutes to cook burgers instead of 24 minutes on the hob. Sausages cooked in 12. I am hoping it uses less electricity than our stove. Husband mostly has cold showers. We have many beautiful trees around here and I can see it looking like 16th October 1987 Weald of Kent by the spring... The tins of corned beef are beginning to pile up now. A local copper tells me that Somerset is bristling with firearms (see Hot Fuzz) so I guess we will be able to protect our farms to some extent.
Flashback to 2018 and the German delegation's reaction to Trump's words of doom at the UN
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1044740334306058241?s=20&t=WBMWoPAzwCj0Z8VsPldbFg&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
@ND what is your take on the continental storage hitting capacity in a few weeks time?
Is it possible that this will trigger a change in Russian behaviour?
I.e.. whilst storage was low - the threat of Western Europe freezing was something to aim for.
Continued restriction of supply beyond this is just the permanent destruction of the Russian gas customer base (German industry).
Also on an unrelated note - will Russia start getting nervous about a Chinese incursion of some sort - given the extreme heat China is currently experiencing?
Al
Priceless ?!? I should say so - that's exquisite, Lils!
Cut-out-and-keep
no, cut-out-and-frame!
I welcome the Sobers amendment. Any more?
P.S. out of an acute sense of public duty I have explored my sound system and discovered the switch that lets me turn it off rather than leaving it on standby.
I hope you will all choose to emulate me.
I'm now turning over in my mind whether we should take out some of our surviving incandescent light bulbs and put them in a drawer for a future period of lower electricity cost, and use low energy bulbs pro tem.
@ Al - what is your take on the continental storage hitting capacity in a few weeks time? Is it possible that this will trigger a change in Russian behaviour? ... Continued restriction of supply beyond this is just the permanent destruction of the Russian gas customer base (German industry) ... will Russia start getting nervous about a Chinese incursion of some sort - given the extreme heat China is currently experiencing?
Phew
(1) storage hitting capacity? Maybe - let's check again in 5 weeks. Demand for gas is going UP right now in Eu, because of the dire French nuke situation and hydro levels being at 'drought'. But even if full (I hope), it doesn't compensate for the extraordinary amount of gas Russia is withholding from the system. Slightest hint of sustained cold weather and it's severe rationing. (PS, let's see if Centrica really is filling up Rough...)
(2) See post - demand destruction is indeed the price-setting 'mechanism' right now. I don't give detailed quantified attention to Germany's predicament, so I can't tell you whether they could, in theory, mothball their manufacturing base against the day when Putin changes his policy, or LNG + errr, windpower (right!) comes to the rescue. I do know that Germany is no slouch when acting in its own interests: you should no more bet against them than against the USA
(3) China? They are in all sorts of trouble but their instinct will be to suck it up and rely on the "social stability" their "culture" so carefully "nurtures". (Don't bet against them either, though.) What could an incursion into Russia possibly give them? Infinitely more likely, they will screw the deal of a lifetime out of Russia: large quantities of ultra-deep-discount gas and oil in return for sanctions-busting that costs them absolutely 0
ND - "Please don't tell me that if we, alone in the west[2], had told Zelensky to surrender and begged Putin to give us a special supply of cheap gas and oil, this would all have gone away"
As I understand it, NATO members have veto power. We could have made it plain in 2014 that Ukraine in NATO was a non-runner.
Btw, BQ - Putin met with the Aeroflot chief a day or two back to discuss the airliner issue.
"We plan to contract a total of 323 domestic aircraft, including 73 Sukhoi Superjets, 210 MS-21s – this is already in a new look, with Russian engines, import-substituted aircraft, as well as 40 Tu-214 aircraft. These are very significant amounts, of course, they will require additional resources from us. It will be necessary to increase and attract additional pilots in the amount of about 3.5 thousand people for this program, and eight full-flight simulators will also be required, that is, this is a serious impetus for the development of the company not only in the medium term, but also in the long term"
Also dealt with parts/maintenance issues.
As well as pubs opening for fewer hours each day I can see a return to the same for shops. Most of a certain age remember early closing on Wed afternoons and all day on Sundays. Maybe rolling power blackouts for domestic customers. It wasn't that bad in the 70s although no-one was totally reliant on the internet and no-one was WFH. Demand destruction could bring the prices down quite quickly.
Also dare I say it we all wash much more than we used to and could save a lot of power (and water) by stopping daily showers. We've become really soft of late and the day of reckoning is upon us. We need to appreciate the power we have, use it wisely and stop taking it for granted.
In October leccy will be 52p per kwH plus standing charge
from memories of 1963 I can say that a house, admittedly with 0 double glazing, with a 2 bar electric fire on 5 hours/day and 12 hrs on weekends
a) will cost over £50, and that's before you turn on a kettle, light, a TV, a cooker or a shower
b) will be damn cold.
So, as I keep saying, where does that leave old people's homes and hospitals.
"Only one chance for Truss. Get into Downing Street: forget everything she's said & promised up until now: "declare war""
She can go to hell and Starmer with her.
Thank you
Starting to reassess trump.
"I'm now turning over in my mind whether we should take out some of our surviving incandescent light bulbs and put them in a drawer for a future period of lower electricity cost, and use low energy bulbs pro tem."
LEDs vary in quality. I've found Lohas to be a good make. Amazon sell them.
The common problem with LED lamps is that because they draw very little current, any bad or dirty contacts in sockets or switches can make it hard for them to work. Traditional bulbs can just burn through a layer of dirt.
Don
Thanks, Don. We have just inherited a couple of boxes of fluorescent spiral bulbs, of the sort we swore we would never use anywhere except the porches and the outside light over the door. I don't suppose we'll ever use them. The garage, maybe? But all these lights, bar the outside one, are on for so little time that the cost savings would be negligible.
What do you mean "Ukraine is out of our hands" ???
This is what I meant to say when I was accused of being a Putin apologist.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11152659/PETER-HITCHENS-long-war-Ukraine-bring-death-poverty-ruin.html
The diversion eastwards (and burning off) of Russian gas has NOT had an impact on us ????
Putin is handing us back our arses. Our civilisations are now destabilised. We are impoverished and those we wrecked our economies to save from Covid are now going to die of hypothermia.
Good Russian and Ukrainian lads get fed into the mincer and cities are laid to waste.
I TOLD you that war and death and misery were going to ensue from our idiotic lockdowns and mask mandates.
The Hitchens reference is a puzzle - just who is Hitchens working for - is this a 'run it up the flagpole...' article.
If we look back the intelligence folk could see Putin was preparing and tipped off Zelensky. Allegedly Zelensky did not believe/trust the info and/or providers and suspected he was being encouraged into doing a runner leaving the coast clear for a quiet diplomatic 'Oh dear, what a shame, never mind' moment.
Then the Russians had a go - very badly - and Ukraine did a good job defending itself. That left the West in a fix, do we leave them to get on with it - and lose - or is this an opportunity to weaken Russia - a strategic aim of the US.
The puzzle is did Johnson see a good publicity moment or was there a wink and a nudge from Johnson's masters across the pond. If so how was any ongoing engagement supposed to pan out. Was Russia supposed to curl up and die in the face of a few grenade launchers. A longer range plan seems to have been missing.
Then post facto - did Putin play a good chess move. Maybe the lousy performance initially was a deliberate feint intended to draw in the West ready for the gas punch. Or was that merely a consequence, albeit one with no upfront defence planned in. So far this game has had the effect of weakening Europe, annoying Russia and boosting the US and China. An ill wind that blows no one any good.
Anyway why the Hitchens article? Is the West planning to hang Ukraine out to dry. We shall see.
No price cap on oil (which fires our central heating). Currently 4.5 more expensive than a year ago. And it's nowhere near winter. There's well over 1.5 million households rely on oil, so probably more than five million people.
Hence we are stockpiling wood.
Nick Drew said...
"freeing up market mechanisms in gas and electricity, starting in the very bad old days of monopolies everywhere; and I bow to no man in my enthusiasm for, and practical knowledge of, what properly-regulated markets can achieve.)
9.22pm
=============================================
Indeed, and it is rally not that long ago that we had a properly regulated market that worked. And then came along that idiot Ed Miliband, and the rest is history.
Net Zero was suicidal even before Ukraine. Nothing we do on that score will make a blind bit of difference while China, India and Africa build new coal fired power stations. Well, there will be a difference, I suppose, we'll be a Third World economy thanks to the utter intransigence and profound stupidity of our political classes.
Jan said...
Also dare I say it we all wash much more than we used to and could save a lot of power (and water) by stopping daily showers. We've become really soft of late and the day of reckoning is upon us. We need to appreciate the power we have, use it wisely and stop taking it for granted.
12:11 pm
===================================================
Those of us who take cold showers will demur :-) I'm now fully addicted to starting my day with a cold shower, and just wish our shower was colder and had better pressure.
I may occasionally have a hot one after a long hot day in the garden - but that's just to clean myself down and then I switch back to cold.
Kev - you seem to feel there's a 'war party' around here. FTAOD, I have never advocated anything in respect of Ukraine**. From the start I have highlighted strenuously how bad the consequences would be for Europe in terms of an energy crisis and consequent inflation (coupled with my utter amazement that Eu politicians didn't intuitively realise this and that they, in this state of culpable ignorance, took the belligerent decisions they did). Everything else is commentary. All the blog posts are there: go check them out.
all I would say about Hitchens is:
(1) his list of counterfactual 'benefits' of calling an early halt to WW1 (no Hitler, no Stalin, no atom bomb, no covid, no AIDS, no United Nations, no votes for women, no Mr Blobby ... have I missed anything out?) is just a silly parlour game
(2) interesting that he uses a WW1 example. How would his DM readers have reacted, if he'd used (for exactly the same effect) the example of Halifax wanting to sue for peace with Hitler? (I apologise for descending into Godwin's Law territory). What would his list of speculative counterfactual benefits have been then?
No British loss of Singapore or India?
No, errr, Auschwitz?
No, hmmmm, Chairman Mao?
In the middle of a war it is always possible to observe: LOOK! - people are getting killed!
Finally, it must continually be stated that Ukr was NEVER admitted to NATO. I say this because some BTL remarks around here seem to be premised on the notions that his actually happened a year or so ago. Ok, yes, it was talked about. And, as noted, it was forcefully advised against by the current head of the CIA. And it DIDN'T HAPPEN. Yet somehow what "we" ought to have done is "veto" it in 2014? MAYBE WE DID. No military organisation gives a public running commentary on its internal diplomatic machinations. Ever heard of strategic ambiguity? It's the only reason China and the US haven't already gone to war over Taiwan!
__________
**except to tell Putin what his optimal military strategy might be; I don't know why I bothered
Jim - taking what you wrote a bit further:
Surely, both sides have been winging it ever since Putin tried and badly failed in his initial play (which was never a feint in a million years: nobody trying to impress Xi screws up a military venture that badly on purpose)
I noted at the time how striking it was that both sides (RF and Ukr) were studiously ensuring no interruption to Germany's gas supplies - which clearly required a positive effort for both of them. As stated above, Putin must have believed confidently that Germany et al would read that as a signal they should think carefully which side their bread was buttered on. He just never imagined for a second they'd be ignorant or casual about that.
"Finally, it must continually be stated that Ukr was NEVER admitted to NATO. I say this because some BTL remarks around here seem to be premised on the notions that his actually happened a year or so ago. Ok, yes, it was talked about. And, as noted, it was forcefully advised against by the current head of the CIA. And it DIDN'T HAPPEN. Yet somehow what "we" ought to have done is "veto" it in 2014? MAYBE WE DID. No military organisation gives a public running commentary on its internal diplomatic machinations. Ever heard of strategic ambiguity? It's the only reason China and the US haven't already gone to war over Taiwan!"
Thats the whole point. The US used the possibility of Ukraine being admitted to NATO as a cattle prod to provoke Putin with. They had no real intention of letting it happen, but it suited them to keep pretending to the Ukrainians (and Putin) that it was on the cards. Lets assume Ukraine being in NATO is a red line for Putin, I have no idea if it was, or whether its just a red herring, but lets assume it for now. If the US keeps saying 'Ukraine can join NATO at some point' whats he to do? Wait until they are in before attacking? That won't work, then he's attacking NATO directly. So by constantly flying the Ukrainian NATO membership kite the US has pretty much ensured he will attack at some point before they join (on the assumption Ukr NATO membership is Putins red line).
Now he could have been planning to invade regardless of the NATO situation, and would even have done so if NATO membership had been utterly ruled out by all parties. We don't know, because that didn't happen. What we do know is that the possibility of membership was constantly raised, and Putin attacked. The is a non-zero possibility the two events are linked, thats all I am saying.
France LEFT NATO. That’s provocative. Key ally. On everyone’s border. Actually hosts the main HQ of NATO.
So NATO should have invaded France. In case as some point it joined the Warsaw Pact.
Same logic as Putin worried UKR MIGHT join NATO so invaded.
"Only one chance for Truss. Get into Downing Street: forget everything she's said & promised up until now"
I hardly think Truss ( the diversity hire and incorrigable gossip ) will have any trouble forgetting anything and everything she's said and promised up until now.
Indeed, that has been the modus operendi of the Tory party for some considerable time now.
"declare war"
Well, I had my suspicions, but now you've confirmed them. You are stark raving insane.
"The US used the possibility of Ukraine being admitted to NATO as a cattle prod to provoke Putin with. They had no real intention of letting it happen, but it suited them to keep pretending to the Ukrainians (and Putin) that it was on the cards."
No, the Ukranian army was the best army NATO had in Europe. Over eight years, trained by NATO, supplied by NATO, and probably - given that Ukraine was before the war, the poorest country in Europe, financed by NATO too.
How Ukraine could maintain an military of 300,000 under arms, given it's pre war economic position in the European rankings, is anyone's guess. But I guess the rivers of 'black' cash diverted by the CIA into Ukrine ( a good fraction of which ended up in Pelosi's and Biden's spawn's pocket ), that's easily explained. That repulsive worm Schiff in Congress stood up during the 'impeachment' of Trump to admit to sending billions of dollars of arms to Ukraine.
Ukraine was nothing but a Western money laundering and arms market run for the benefit of Western political grifters and their children.
Anon.
now does Belarus manage to field 600 main battle tanks?
500 mobile artillery pieces
220 towed artillery pieces
230 mobile rocket launchers
1500 apc and equivalents
85 helicopters. Including 20 attack helicopters
40 front line fighters
And
45000 military in the field
300000 in reserve
And
110,000 paramilitary security border and the usual totalitarian state secret police, units of oppression and palace guard.
On a budget of HALF of Ukraine
And with a total population of 10,000,000. A quarter the size of Ukraine,
Does the CIA fund Belarus, too ?
Or do countries with powerful and hostile neighbours maintain large armies and reserves to combat them?
How does Finland, with a population of HALF of Belarus manage to have 900,000 reserves ? Almost 1 million reservists. Like our Territorials.
200 tanks. 600 towed artillery.
Is that the CIA also?
Or is it a case of thinking back to why the Royal Navy was required to be the size of the next two world power ocean navies combined?
Ukraine was defeated very rapidly, very soundly, with mostly minimal consequences, by Putin in 2014.
He fancied another go.
But Ukraine had prepared. And Putin had not. So now he has to destroy the cities to occupy them. It’s not that difficult to explain Why Ukraine prepared. And why they sought some help.
( if you compare Poland defence budget to Ukraine, the CIA must have raided fort knox and all the oil wells in Texas to fund that one. Why does Poland have such a massive army ? It’s in NATO, isn’t it? Does it need to have 800 tanks and 450 front line aircraft?)
* Poland’s military budget is bigger than Ukraine. But not by much. Though it also has a navy. ships and submarines for the Baltic.
* it’s population is smaller
Ukraine is population rich,
Along with oil and gas.
Anon @ 2:59 - " ... You are stark raving insane"
I am quite enchanted to find that someone could believe my carefully quotation-marked *declare war* was to be understood literally
I can only wonder what you make of "blood / toil / tears / sweat", and "economic May 1940"
still, if that's your reading-age, feel free to exit with the usual full refund and our blessing
I'm wondering why the Extinction Rebellion folk are not out in the streets celebrating the rise in fuel prices.
Don Cox
Careful, Don, they have plans for what they call a Just Transition
it means Someone Else Will Pay ...
"I am quite enchanted to find that someone could believe my carefully quotation-marked *declare war* was to be understood literally"
Prior form, old chap.
Ah yes, good ol' Saddam back in '91
what an inveterate warmonger I am, to be sure
The coal mines of 2022 IS Government. Wasteful, unmodernised, dangerously inflationary and not even Scargill facilitate a 2 regiment of blokes a day invasion of our country.
Cut government, cut tax. Get fracking
----
Of which... a 20 year Sergeant of distinguished service in the British Army shot dead on a training range by a 'person' with eyesight so bad that 'they' were refused entry on first application and 'they' were allowed to deem 'themselves' fit to be shooting without glasses on. The British Army weren't allowed to be informed of this incapacity because of confidentiality rules.
So how does confidentiality fit in when 'they' are meant to wash 'their' private parts in view of their comrades and shit in a bush within earshot ?
So, not a feint - agreed. Germany would have rolled over but for pressure led by Boris. Where do we go from here.
With the US providing weapons and funding it would be a bit embarrassing to roll over now. Perhaps the game of mutual annoyance can be kept going - but until when and until who gives up?
The snag is that the US has now got control of the European economy and that includes UK. Which means fewer nice semiconductor factories and lots of belt tightening all round. We are handing all our lolly to the US and the Middle East and none left to build our own industries. This was not the plan.
Maybe a bit of embarrassment is in order. Roll over but not too obviously. There is no limit to the amount of humiliation diplomats can take, they are built for it. Snag is who's next and our US friends might not be pleased seeing their Russia containment notion in tatters.
Or Europe could stiffen its sinews and go head to head with Russia. Not attractive, the EU is not very cohesive especially if things get ugly and expensive and Russia would have to be well cowed in order for the gas to come back on. And the UK would be in a bit of a fix with divided loyalties - never having decided whether the Atlantic ocean exists or not.
Or we rely on the Ukrainians with some fancy weaponry to make things so expensive for Russia that she relents. This looks like a very long job. Think very high prices for say six years or more. Inflation will burn itself out - there being no more savings or wealth to deplete. Perhaps Moscow can send us some perhaps bags and headscarves.
Maybe Mrs Merkel was not so daft, she could see the reality - roll over.
Talking to a guy who actually makes stuff here, he's ordered some fairly hefty diesel-powered generators to run his factory, reckons it's cheaper to produce your own. Also says you can't use red diesel in them following a brilliantly timed government change.
https://www.speedyfuels.co.uk/guides/red-diesel-rules-april-2022/
The 1st April 2022 will see new rules surrounding the use of rebated red diesel and biofuels. The change in legislation is being brought in to reduce commercial reliance on fossil diesel, in turn to help the UK achieve its Net Zero Carbon target.
The good news is that you can use red diesel in a home generator setup, bad news is that a continuous diesel 1500rpm generator might set you back 14k or more.
Jim - @ With the US providing weapons and funding ...
If (IF) the US is minded to see this continue, Biden will soon need to confront the fact that ONLY THEY are in a position to do this in future
(becoz every Eu country will be beggared this winter by energy costs, whereas USA is self-sufficient in energy)
it's 1946 all over again
Can you find a generator that will run on old chip shop oil?
(Will you be able to find a chip shop to buy it from?)
We've gone in two posts from "Can Russia sustain this?" to "Can Europe sustain this?" ;-)
I think this entire US project, from 2014 on ("F*** the EU" as Nuland put it) has been a disaster for Europe, including the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-diplomat-victoria-nuland-phonecall-leaked-video
It certainly has shown that much-vaunted "EU Foreign Policy" has been completely useless in the face of US pressure. Goodbye NS2, goodbye German industry, indeed as of now goodbye UK fertiliser production.
Never mind, we only import 60% of our food.
>it's 1946 all over again
Quite so.
Lots of commentators have pointed out that the real loser in this war will be Europe (and the UK). Meanwhile, China and India will have access to cheap, Russian resources and the USA will make money by shipping LNG to Europe.
Not the least of the beggars wanting support this Winter will be Ukraine itself. The Russians have just cut off the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant from the Ukrainian grid, and they'll presumably expect the rest of Europe to start supplying Ukraine with gas, as well as money and weapons.
Bill Quango MP: "now does Belarus manage to field 600 main battle tanks?"
They are not being ripped off by the Military industrial conplex. The US MIC rasion d' etra is to make profits not good reliable armaments that kill the enemy.
Bill Quango MP: "Does the CIA fund Belarus, too ?"
Clearly not, although the CIA did attempt a coup d' etat in Belarus.
Bill Quanto MP: "How does Finland, with a population of HALF of Belarus manage to have 900,000 reserves ? "
A reservist isn't a full time member of the armed forces, while they are not spending time in the military, they are working for themselves and cost the Finish ( in this case ) government next to nothing.
Bill Quango MP, if you are indeed an MP and if indeed you are a member of the Tory party, it's your lot that have been in power for a decade now, and your lot, that refused to invest in a decent nuclear power programme, went insanly Green and left us in a position where we have almost no heavy industry, can barely produce our own steel no aluminum smelters, can't generate enough energy for our own needs ( we rely on French and Norwegians ).
And the f****ng Tory party, supposedly the party of individual freedom, terrorised (1) the British population, caused the untimely death of elderly folk in the care homes in order to inflate the death rate - the better to accomplish (1) and used the police like a former communist state stazi to enforce the lockdowns.
So, frankly - I'm ill dispoed to your rotten, corrupt little party.
Your party should by rights get obliterated in the next general election. And don't give me that bullshit that 'Labour will be worse', they couldn't have done worse that the situation we're in now.
But at least we'd have known what to expect.
"they couldn't have done worse that the situation we're in now."
Don't be daft. Labour's policies on Lockdowns and Greenery-Wankery are that we should have had more of it and harsher.
"don't give me that bullshit that 'Labour will be worse', they couldn't have done worse that the situation we're in now"
That's the only thing in your comment I'd take issue with.
It's always possible to make things worse. Just remember that the Labour Party are 100% behind the policy of pissing off Russia and enlarging the EU.
But I get your point. IMHO Labour and the Tories are two faces of the same party. Note that whoever you vote for you get foreign wars and mass immigration.
I think the UK and US reached independently by the 1980s the happy (for oligarchs) political system proposed by the late Boris Berezofsky, representing a consortium of Russian oligarchs, to Vladimir Putin, when the oligarchs still saw him as their man.
https://theintercept.com/2015/06/11/russian-oligarch-wanted-turn-joke-reality/
“Listen, Volodya, what happened: we destroyed the entire political space. Devoured, not destroyed, but devoured it. We absolutely dominated … Look, I’ll suggest that we can not have effective political system, if there’s a tough competition. So I suggest we create an artificial two-party system. So, let’s say, the left and right. A Socially Oriented party and neo-conservatives liberal party. Choose any. And I’ll make another party. At the same time, my own heart is closer to neoconservatives, and I think so, you [Putin] are socially oriented. ”
Berezofsky is a much misunderstood man – instead of liberating Russia to be looted by oligarchs as happened in the Yeltsin years, he wanted to turn it into a modern liberal "Western" democracy – still to be looted by oligarchs, but with the appearance of political difference – a Potemkin polity.
Just like the US and UK.
Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/08/will-europe-go-down-to-defeat-before-ukraine.html
We will be so bold as to posit that not only has the sanctions war against Russia backfired spectacularly, but the damage to the West, most of all Europe, is accelerating rapidly. And this is not the result of Russia taking active measures but the costs of the loss or reduction of key Russian resources compounding over time.
So due to the intensity of the energy shock, the economic timetable is moving faster than the military. Unless Europe engages in a major course correction, and we don’t see how this can happen, the European economic crisis looks set to become devastating before Ukraine is formally defeated.
"Don't be daft. Labour's policies on Lockdowns and Greenery-Wankery are that we should have had more of it and harsher."
Even before the 'pandemic', we knew Labour was a totalitarian inclined operation. They implemented the 2004 Civil Contingency act, ffs.
But guess what? The Tories implemented the lockdowns under the health regulations 1998 Health act** because those regulations did not require periodic parliamentary scrutiny.
Even the Blairite Civil contingencies act, had provision for periodic review by Parliament!
** Read Hansard, it was never even considered that the '98 Health Act would be used in the way it was abused.
, that post certainly got everyone going, didn’t it? For good reasons so no aspersions cast from me.
Only thing to add, if anyone really wants to understand the European situation and make some informed analysis (plus some projections about what might happen in the future and why) then reading — and, importantly, understanding — this surprisingly well-written and concise report from the U.K. Government is a good place to start https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043321/Diversity_and_security_of_gas_supply_in_Europe__2020_.pdf
Short version: no-one in Europe is going to be starving and freezing in the dark. Anyone who says so is just purveying fear pr0n. That’s not to say that the poorest in society won’t need government help, possibly lots of it. I’m not sure what correct policy design for that looks like, but there’s lots of options, cleverer minds than mind will have to work that out. All countries will need to see adjustments, some countries will, ah-hem, need to make bigger adjustments than others. Oh, and energy markets will need heavy reform. As, to their credit, the EU seems to have woken up to. Of course, realising change is necessary isn’t the same as implemented change nor does it tell you what changes are required.
Clive: "Anyone who says so is just purveying fear pr0n. That’s not to say that the poorest in society won’t need government help, possibly lots of it. "
So here's the problem, we've got inflation primarilary because the government ( Tory freemarket, Pah! ) Nationalized the economy and shut it down for eighteen months, then printed money (1)( Sunak is a liar if he said he did it against his will ) and handed it to, well anyone(2).
There are instances(2) where individuals claimed furlow paynments and used the money to fund their illicit drug business.
The Guardian ( spit ) claims £5bn of the furlow payments were fraudulently claimed or lost to error. £5bn.
The Welsh authority has just ( or is about to ) burn £10bn worth of substandard PPE.
So here we are with out of control inflation - Citi projects it may be 20% by the new year.
And to stop people freezing and going hungry this winter, the government is going to print more money and hand it out like candy (1).
So guess what?
We're going to get another bout of inflation in about another twelve to eighteen months.
I don't think we could have had a more comprehensive mismanagement of the economy even under Labour. Frankly, Labour hasn't the imigination.
@ Anonymous
Inflation can always and everywhere be controlled by monetary policy. Or fiscal policy. Or both.
You don’t typically tighten fiscal policy in a recession so that’s unlikely. But monetary policy is already being tightened and will be tightened more. Yes, the over-leveraged will suffer some very unpleasant consequences. But that days of reckoning has been put off for a decade or more. It was bound to happen sooner or later. No time like the present.
Nick the warmonger eh? The tone of some comments these days just shows how bad lockdown was for people's manners/discernment. Either that or you've got regular millennials commenting....
@ lilith
Yes, if only there was a vaccine against rudeness. What’s amusing is those proffering it, in lieu of good arguments and a solid evidence-base, don’t realise how counter-productive it is in winning over hearts and minds.
OT - to what extent are the problems of our new aircraft carrier a result of the decline of UK heavy engineering?
When you have a lot of HE expertise, the military suppliers have a big field to recruit from. Not so much when most of it's been shut down or the technology's gone overseas.
Heavy engineering in Britain was based on large local supplies of coal and iron. Both of those were used up several decades ago.
If we had kept up the production of new nuclear power stations over the past 30 years, we would at least have plenty of energy. And we wouldn't have to ask the French and Chinese to come and build new ones now -- twenty years too late.
Wind and solar are icing on the cake. There has to be a cake.
Don
Someone was saying on the weekend - why can't we just build more Magnox reactors? OK, they're 2nd gen, but 3rd gen a la EDF have the problem of not working.
" Read Hansard, it was never even considered that the '98 Health Act would be used in the way it was abused."
And our wonderful so called independent judiciary refused to even countenance looking at the legality of it all. Fingers in ears, La La La Not Listening! Judges know which side their bread is buttered of course. Can't go biting the hand that feeds it, not in a way that reduces the power of the State anyway.
I'm with Anon 6:39pm, the Tories can go piss up a rope if they think I (life long Tory voter) am voting for them again. Yes we'll get Labour, but they are so batshit crazy they'll probably overreach themselves and piss off the masses so much there's a revolution. Which would be good. All the Tories do is give us Labour policies a bit slower, which is worse, because it never creates a mass reaction, its just a slow creep so no-one notices the direction we're moving in.
Anon. - The Spectator agree.
Sadly behind the paywall but they offer a limited read for singing up without payment.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-tory-party-myth-isn-t-real?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220830%20%20House%20Ads%20%20HT+CID_ffebd3762b4b169bac754acc6899c9ed
The essence is that the Tory party thinks someone else has been running the country for the last twelve years. And have made a pretty poor show of it. How did it all get in such a mess?
I agree with you in this. It’s a shocking disgrace that a Conservative party failed to sort out almost any of the issues facing ordinary voters. Gifted Corbyn, they inherited the chance to take over some deep red areas permanently. And many more could become swing constituencies. Up for grabs with the right government.
Truss will be lucky to last a year.
And all the issues you cite on energy have been addressed here, on this blog, since I first read it when Tony Blair stalked the land.
Addressed. Discussed. Solutions and explanations examined. History and policies considered.
All I can say is that the EU was told too. And did even less to prepare. Hence the current crisis.
"Wind and solar are icing on the cake."
Can't bear icing, myself.
andrew said...
Thank you
Starting to reassess trump.
3:06 pm
====================
Dreadful man
1. Failed to go to war ONCE in four years. Deplorable.
2. Improved employment levels for POCs and Hispanics. Deplorable.
3. Face down North Korea. Deplorable.
4. Put in place the Abraham Accords. Deplorable.
Now wonder the American deep state wanted him out and now are clear they don't want him back, regardless of the voters.
That was in response to
lililth's comment way up at the top
I worked for a SME. Owned by one man. Hated by many. He was not the most morally upright of people (but never flat out lied like Trump). He built a company from nothing to about 70 people and kept that place going for about 20y and then sold up in late 2007 - at the top of the last cycle. He came from a particular background and upbringing.
My respect for him grew over the years.
When I said tell Zelensky to surrender and 'beg' Putin... I didn't mean that we beg and I didn't mean unilaterally.
WE - along with America and the EU - provoked Putin and started this over decades.
What is it with us ? Why are we the biggest arms donors to Ukraine and why are we the gobbiest of supporters ? Ah. Boris WANTS to be a war leader.
Anyway. Beyond all that now - the Fifth Column is already entrenched within the UK ready to pounce.
Yes. Our people are going to be hit unbelievably hard. The fall in living standards is already dramatic. This is going to up-end society and destroy the Tories - it is revolutionary and I fear it presents us with the final stage of the Marxist putsch in the UK. I do not believe that Truss is up to the job of stopping it.
All that has stopped revolt in our nation thus far is central heating and full bellies and the belief that it is still, just about, worth working. The Tory betrayals are breathtaking.
Oh dear.
The idiotic The Sun tells us Putin's intention was to take ground to Portugal. Does anyone here really believe that ?
However, we WILL end up Communist in the UK because of Ukraine because 2024 will be a contest against a backdrop of unbelievable bleakness and poverty.
Alas, not even Orwell predicted face masks and no pubs.
Oh. There's also the risk of WW3. Are we sure Ukraine is worth it ? Especially seeing as we care so little for our own borders and way of life ?
They AREN'T fighting for our freedom, which is the justification for our involvement in this war. That is a silly notion.
Don Cox said...
Heavy engineering in Britain was based on large local supplies of coal and iron. Both of those were used up several decades ago.
=====================================================
Nonsense, Don
https://euracoal.eu/info/country-profiles/united-kingdom/
Hard coal
Coal stocks and cooling towers at Uniper Ratcliffe power station, Nottingham, UK © Charles Gibson | Dreamstime.com
The UK has identified hard coal resources of 3 910 million tonnes, although total resources could be as large as 187 billion tonnes. There are 33 million tonnes of economically recoverable reserves available at operational and permitted mines, plus a further 344 million tonnes at mines in planning. There are also about 1 000 million tonnes of lignite resources, mainly in Northern Ireland, although no lignite is mined. This significant coal resource base is, however, rendered largely irrelevant by policies designed to drive coal out of the energy mix and a hostile planning environment for surface mines.
6:42 am
Kev - @ Our people are going to be hit unbelievably hard. The fall in living standards is already dramatic. This is going to up-end society and destroy the Tories - it is revolutionary and I fear it presents us with the final stage of the Marxist putsch in the UK. I do not believe that Truss is up to the job of stopping it. All that has stopped revolt in our nation thus far is central heating and full bellies and the belief that it is still, just about, worth working
I broadly agree
- hit unbelievably hard: check
- up-end society ... revolutionary: certainly has that potential
- destroy the Tories: certainly has that potential
- do not believe that Truss is up to the job: agreed (though people said that about MT, let's not forget
- central heating, full bellies etc: check
But we WILL end up Communist in the UK? From yours and several other BTL comments, I think you are defining yourself into being right on your own terms. For example, if - as I believe to be 100% necessary - there will be energy rationing this winter, in France, in Germany, here (even if PM = N.Farage or indeed W.Churchill or M.Thatcher), you'll say that's Communist. I say that's an empty abuse of the terminology: not all direct intervention by government is remotely communist or even leftist. Do you want the water system to be improved to reduce/eliminate the discharge of raw sewage? That'll require government intervention (of some sort or other)
The hum-drum Tories may yet surprise us by muddling through. Wouldn't be the first time.
ND: Maybe you're right and a Truss-let government will be able to muddle through. We'll get by with energy rationing and sending the remaining energy-intensive industry off to India (steel-making, cement, etc). Then come the warmer weather in 2023, we can all stand around in our utility-fashion clothes, congratulating each other and cheering the wartime-standard NHS.
But it seems to me that people are internalising a big drop in civilisational standards. Your muddling through comment is part of that.
It's really not so long ago that access to exotic, foreign food; buying a centrally heated, modern house; being able to fly off on foreign holidays, having one's own car, etc were all seen as good things, signs of how much Britain had progressed since the start of the twentieth century.
But now, houses --- if you can even afford one --- are getting much smaller, we'll have energy rationing, you won't be able to buy an ICE car, don't fly (to save Gaia), don't eat meat (ditto), don't expect free health care, and don't expect hard work to pay off for your children. Oh, and careful what you say, and here's a tracking device to carry in your pocket at all times.
The excuses vary: save the banks, save the planet, save the NHS, and now defend freedom and save Ukraine. Why has this become normal?
ND - They're already helping those in social housing with energy bills and soon to put a cap on rent rises. Closing the gap dramatically on those who don't work and those who do. So we all end up on broadly the same wage with massive state control.
That looks like communism to me.
Sorry. I haven't had the time to follow this thread properly. Hitchens' point was, had we avoided WW1, Hitler wouldn't have arisen. Out of both conflicts we ended up losing our empire and being invaded by a foreign military power, stripped of our gold and a new culture being supplanted here.
All we had to do was tell Ukraine that they could not join the EU nor Nato. Russia would not have invaded.
If we were to force compromise (and we could) the Donbass could be ceded (containing a majority of Russian supporters) and the war ended.
The gas supply could be resumed and we stop our silly greenist ideas and take our own energy more seriously and build it up in the meantime.
Has anyone any idea what a re-unified and hungry Germany is going to look like ?
"All we had to do was tell Ukraine that they could not join the EU nor Nato. Russia would not have invaded."
On the contrary, Putin would have invaded just the same. He badly wants the Soviet empire back.
He insists that Russia must be equal to the USA, or to Britain in 1914. It's "Make Russia great again."
Don Cox
DC: Neither you nor I know what Putin wants. Maybe he doesn't know himself?
Even Henry Kissinger thinks the war should end and that Ukraine should become a neutral, buffer state.
Feeding in more money and weapons to keep the war going is not only insane but morally wrong. The Americans are talking about victory for Ukraine and unconditional surrender by the Russians. Apart from the fact that that is extremely unlikely, is it even desirable? As Kissinger says, Russia is necessary for a peaceful, stable balance of power in Europe. Tough luck for states near the Russian border but there are far worse fates than being like neutral Finland.
DJK @ Neither you nor I know what Putin wants. Maybe he doesn't know himself?
True, but my belief (with no proof, but a modest first-hand exposure to Russian psychology) is that within the complex mix in Putin's mind is the sight of Xi, unabashedly determined to have Taiwan back at whatever cost, before he departs
Russians always anxiously compare themselves to other nations - well, don't we all, but it's really anxious in Russia - from the perspective of a (nervous) superiority complex, to the extent of what we'd call unreconstructed racism. Among the nations / races they are VERY sure they're superior to are the chinese (I could give anecdotes).
The thought of Xi limbering up to take Taiwan cannot but be a driver of Putin's thinking - along with a whole muck-heap of other stuff
Love Idea of Nukes being used for peak shaving Are we mad??? Of course could base load and make hydrogen if technology available and we can raise capital.
As an aside see that Ruskies have taken out Ukraine ballistic missile factory and stories of support from North Korea Will they get Ukraine design missiles to fire back???
"Has anyone any idea what a re-unified and hungry Germany is going to look like?"
The only difference is that in those days Germany was full of Germans, just as Britain was full of Britons. Diversity is a good way of diluting solidarity between people, whether for good or ill. See the book "Bowling Alone" by Robert Putnam.
Social capital has declined markedly here in my lifetime, I bet it has in Germany too.
(ND/DC - all this Putinalysis is neither here nor there. As the current CIA chief says, Russian elites are united in seeing Ukraine in NATO as a red line. Looking at deeds rather than speculation (sorry about the text wall but it makes italics easier):
"Since last year about half of the Ukrainian army was positioned in the county's southeast at the ceasefire line with the Donbas republics. On February 17 it opened preparatory artillery fire against the resistance positions. Over the next days the barrage steadily increased. The observers of the Organization for Security and Co-operation (OSCE), positioned at the frontline, counted and documented each artillery strike and published daily summaries on its website. From 80 artillery impacts on February 16 the attacks increased each day to over 2,000 per day on February 22. The OSCE observers also provided maps of where the shells exploded (here of February 21): The vast majority of impacts were on three areas east of the ceasefire line on resistance held positions. Anyone with a bit of military knowledge will recognize such intense artillery campaigns along distinct axes as the preparation action for an all out attack. The leaders of the Donbas republics as well as of Russia had to react to this upcoming attack. On February 19 the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic asked the Russia government for help. Left alone they would have had no chance to resist against the Ukrainian army the U.S. and its allies, since 2015, had financed and built. Up to this point Russia had insisted that the DPR and LNR were part of Ukraine but should receive some kind of autonomy as provided by the Minsk agreements. But it now had to take steps that would legalize Russian support for the Donbas. On February 21 Russia recognized the republics as independent states."
Map of shelling on Feb 21 from OSCE site
https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-22%20Daily%20Report_ENG.pdf?itok=63057
You could also note that Victoria Nuland explained in a State Department press briefing on January 27: “If Russia invades Ukraine one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”
The problem, as the economist Michael Hudson pointed out on February 8, was to create a suitably offensive incident and depict Russia as the aggressor.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/02/michael-hudson-americas-real-adversaries-are-its-european-and-other-allies.html
Ho hum, we could play pingpong with this all day.
Ukr bombardment commencing 17 Feb? Russian forces had been building up relentlessly for 6 months prior to that, in plain sight (plus withholding normal gas supplies from Europe for 9 months): Putin had very publicly squared Xi away; and on this blog, on 3rd Feb, CU stated the invasion would begin on 21 Feb, i.e. after the Games had finished in China. By that stage, nobody was in any doubt whatsoever.
Bombarding 17 Feb? Best Ukr could do as a preemptive defensive measure, I'd say. Please don't tell us the Russians sped 100,000 men + tanks etc hotfoot to the borders of Ukr on 18th Feb as a response.
ND: Agree. No point in arguing whose fault it all is, or even speculating about Putin's thought processes.
But what do you think we should do now? Goldman Sachs say that inflation will hit 22% next year. Do you think we should help fuel the war if that's the price? If Putin is in a contest with Xi then perhaps we could make nice to him and turn him against the Chinese?
Or do you think the war should continue, in which case, what does victory look like?
Flippin' heck, this one has got legs, hasn't it?
I wasn't going to add any more, but can't resist. @DJK 12:24 pm...
"What to do now?" is a good question and has certainly occupied my thoughts. I'd say we can all come up with various options, I've probably done, as thought-experiments, many.
But in the end, I concluded, reluctantly, "so what?". Just because you, I Liz Truss, Macron, von der Leyen or anyone have an idea, strategy or specific policy responses, it doesn't mean they are particularly likely to happen. Let's say an axis of France and Germany hustles the US into withdrawing support for Ukraine. Could happen, might happen, probably won't happen, but it's possible -- so let's assume it has, just for the sake of argument.
Will than, then, make Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltics (plus pretty much everyone else in the former eastern bloc) suddenly shrug and say, oh, well, never minds then? No. At the very least, there will be extreme stress on the EU to retain its current form and a real risk that eastern Europe will form its own economic and security alliances. Perhaps Poland would even seek to develop its own nuclear weapons programme. France, Germany and the US know this, know it's a risk and know that the current EU/NATO structures are preferable to the other structures that could emerge if those eastern bloc countries start to draw up new plans [because reasons].
So even if so determined, France, Germany and the US would be steered back towards some sort of support for Ukraine. And Ukraine, even without the fairly limited support it's getting could keep on fighting and probably present too tough a nut for Russia to crack, given Russia's limited willingness to expend finite resources on the project.
As ND said, back and forward, back and forward we could go, all day, on this, with several moving parts to chew over. Another one would be gas supplies. Even if all support for Ukraine were to end right now, that would not mean Russia would suddenly became a reliable energy partner. Sure, the immediate difficulties would lessen, somewhat.
But nothing would change in terms a lack of expensive, long lead-time assets (hundreds and hundreds of gigawatts of installed wind generation, 50+ GW of European-located nuclear generation, an expansion of unconventional gas extraction in high-potential geologies (like the UK..!), revised power grids and interconnectors to plug it all together, storage etc. etc. etc. These would all need to be designed and built out to provide a permeant fix to the underlying issues. Unless and until they were, energy markets -- and energy prices -- would remain flaky, volatile and unpredictable. And energy costs would remain high, because everyone is waiting for the next shoe to drop.
Don Cox: "He insists that Russia must be equal to the USA, or to Britain in 1914."
Look Don, Britain isn't equal to Britain in 1914.
Is shows some chutzpa that Britian aspires to have the position Britain had in 1914. But it explains much.
We're just discovering that the concept of 'soft power' projection, was a fig leaf, used to disguise the fact that we have no power projection ability at all.
In 1914 Britain was energy self sufficient. Today? No. We could have been, with a modern fleet of nuclear power stations and what's left of North Sea oil.
But our political and financial class, turned away from 'progress and modernity' in favour of transgenderism and other fuckwitery.
@ "In 1914 Britain was energy self sufficient"
errrr, no! The RN had just converted to oil, of which we had none. Churchill (1st Lord of the Admiralty) worried about this a lot
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