Our esteemed BQ gave an excellent account of how Putin must have totted up the scores before making his fateful move (BTL here). It all looked so promising: almost a no-brainer!
Clearly enough, seventeen days in, we can safely say he made at least three monstrous miscalculations: and I'm going to suggest a fourth
- he thought the Ukrainians wouldn't fight, such is his contempt for them (but instead he's got a re-run of Finland 1939-40 on his hands)
- his own troops would fight - at least to some basic standards (on which more below)
- Europe wouldn't react in any material fashion
Closely bound up with 3 is what I take to be his assumption that all European politicians understood the degree of Europe's dependence on fossil-fuel energy.
Well, as the man with possibly the world's biggest vested interest in fossil fuels, he knew that - so surely they did, too ..? Boy, was that wrong. Can we seriously imagine they'd all have rushed to support the kind of really quite striking responses we've seen, if they had half a clue just how bad our upcoming energy crisis is going to be? Maybe they did: maybe they knew they were staring down the barrel (pun intended), at very least of a re-run the 1973-4 Oil Crisis and all that followed, (but maybe even worse). Didn't really come across that way, though.
Instead, I think we may credit the Greens with having drummed it into empty heads that we don't need fossil fuels at all, really. As recently as Wednesday we read George Monbiot saying that, seeing how the USA came up with the atom bomb in 4 years, we can dispense with fossil fuels now in the same kind of timeframe. And there are people with a strong inclination to believe this crap, this utterly misleading analogy: you can see it peddled everywhere.
I can see only one simple & decisive way this could get resolved without deep & serious economic pain for Europe - via an energy crunch - and I'm not suggesting it's plausible for a nanosecond. It would be a putsch against Putin, and a new Russian regime that unilaterally restored the status quo ante. Then, however quickly / enthusiastically attempts were made to wean ourselves off fossil fuels, it wouldn't matter too much when it turns out to take decades rather than months.
Just very expensive.
* * * * *
By the way, on the mystery of how badly the Russian military has been performing (and wow, what a disgrace on them: the sheer contempt Xi must be feeling. No lack of respect intended for the outstanding Ukrainian defiance, naturally) ... the Beeb interviewed what seemed to be a fairly ordinary Ukrainian front line soldier the other day. They asked him how the Russian were fighting. He replied, in English: "Like 1941 - only attack from front - make no manoeuvres".
This (which we have seen with our own eyes) is astounding stuff for an army with even the merest acquaintance with Red Army doctrine, which I certainly assumed they must have. Several days ago I summarised what we might have expected in that case (second part of this C@W piece). The essence of that whole offensive doctrine is summed up in the three must-haves the Red Army was based around: speed; firepower; manoeuvre. Well, I guess we saw a bit of haste, if not proper speed. The firepower is not really in doubt (though as noted before, they seem to have withheld their air force). But the complete absence of manoeuvre is just amazing. Because it's winter? FFS, that's what Russia specialises in! Because the terrain is mountainous? Not last time I looked. Because they only brought two-wheel drive family saloons? Plenty of perfectly adequate tracked vehicles in evidence, even if now charred wrecks smouldering on the tarmac. Because Russian soldiers don't like bumping along off-road? No, I suspect they'll do whatever they're told, at least for a few days & weeks.
Nope: it has to be down to very poor generalship - whatever crazy instructions they got from Putin. ("... and stay on the roads, comrades: take care not to drive across the fields ..." - Seriously??) Yes, that's a bit of a surprise.
ND
PS: how about we try to avoid covid, hmm? BTL, that is - as well as out in the big wide world.
29 comments:
Covid? What's Covid? Nothing on the news, so it can't exist can it?
BBC reality, as against reality. The Narrative is strong on this one.
Who's talking about Covid ?
I suppose the Russians will be able to keep warm by burning... um... gas and we'll be able to keep warm burning our fiat- even most of that is virtual.
I don't know what Ukraine is hoping to achieve.
To join a federation in which there is no real wealth and it is illegal to call a woman a woman and you can be cancelled for it ?
Are they expecting their rubbled cities to be rebuilt by an EU, which is yet to be broken financially by the blowback from these sanctions and the sheer and utter folly of greenism ? Where on earth is the money to come from ?
And has anyone told them yet that the real aim of our support is to warn China off Taiwan ? That we are using them in a proxy war ?
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Putin's tactics. Yes. Dreadful. Alas that's not where the real damage to Europe is being done. And it isn't Putin against Ukraine alone, clearly.
Between Kyiv and Russia/Belorussia it isn't mountainous, but it is rather damp underfoot. A few blown bridges here and there and your impressive column of armour turns into a traffic jam.
Well I do feel ashamed sitting here with the CH on while those poor Ukrainian people are getting hammered. I feel also that we are cowering behind the nuke threat knowing full well that Poot would not use nor be allowed to use nukes just for a piddling cornfield. Sooner or later Putin has to be squared up to. Here is a draft note Boris is welcome to use.
Dear Vlad
Sorry to be a bore but you are making a frightful mess of your Ukrainian difficulty and embarrassing all we who liked your money so much. So please Vlad, call a halt and get out while you can, you can still keep a little bit of the East btw. Otherwise I am afraid we and a few friends will have to put our own forces to a bit of use. We won't play nuke if you don't - can't say fairer than that. We know where you live.
вверх по твоему дну
Boris
Now I reckon it would not be all that difficult to drive Russia out of Ukraine. The difficulty is keeping him out and he and his mates from trying it again whilst also keeping his hands off the gas tap. Then who among us is going to take a spot of retribution and what form might that take.
The difficulty is it is getting a bit late to take on Vlad, has to be done before he settles in or the whole idea loses force and legitimacy. TBH I think that is what our illustrious leaders are hoping for and are disappointed Vlad has made such a slow mess of it. A bit more foot dragging needed then some shamefaced gas begging. A bit shaming really.
Jim - Yes. You're being a bore.
Squaring up to Putin has been the problem ALL ALONG !
It started in at least 2008. ALL of his actions have been reactions to Nato and the EU.
His recent peace offer to Ukraine was perfectly reasonable. A vast country and an opportunity to separate Russo-Ukrainians from EU-Ukrainians with a stipulation that the remainer stay out of the EU and Nato.
Better than rubbled cities, thousands of dead and an EU of false promises to 'rebuild' and indoctrinate in the way of Orwell, surely ?
My wife has been sorting out supplies for Ukraine. A lot of it is surplus army gear. From the Polish border we are hearing that iodine, tourniqets, medi kits, thermals, roll mats, back packs, ration packs, and camouflage clothing is particularly needed.
Forget baby stuff, clothing, knitting stuff... that all goes in landfill.
So. Even the direct aid is going to the front. And the EU isn't relaxing checks either. It all has to be properly manifested.
I disagree with it entirely, of course.
We should not be facilitating the destruction of a European country when there is a clear resolution in sight were we to tell Zelensky the truth.
That we cannot fulfil our promises. We will be in no position to rebuild Ukraine even if the best outcome is achieved - we will all be stoney broke.
PS, How does any mega rich globalist ever trust the West with their wealth ever again ?
(Confiscation of Oligarch's assets)
I don't know what you chaps are complaining about. After the ultra-visible cock-ups that constituted almost the whole of government reaction to Covid, why are you surprised at the litany of government cock-ups over the last thirty years or so over relations with Russia and Ukraine?
Dearieme is right. We should have applied sanctions to Putin as soon as he refused to leave power at the end of his term of office.
If the USA and Britain refused to deal with any autocrats who cling to power for more than ten years, things might run more smoothly.
Don Cox
I remind everyone that it was France/Germany/EU that wanted to restart the terrorist war in Ireland, with visible support from the Head Paddy.
So can we start by bombing Paris, Berlin, Brussels, and Dublin, please?
"If Britain refused to deal with any autocrats who cling to power for more than ten years, things might run more smoothly."
Absolutely and given the poor state of our parliamentary democracy
- as there has been no effective opposition since May '10,
we arguably qualify as an autocracy.
If Boris is still PM after ten years, he certainly should go. But that seems unlikely, unless he doubles his salary.
But even if you disagree with his policies, Boris is very far from being an autocrat. He is a traditional conservative politician, a little to the right of centre, like MacMillan. No resemblance to Mugabe or Assad or Khameini.
Don
What Putin is doing to Ukraine isn't a war, it's a tantrum.
@ Don Cox
I guess Maggie was a aberration as a proper conservative politician. We've had no one even approach her level since.
@Matt
Nor are we likely to. Would she get any votes today ? The younger generation have all been taught that she was an evil extremist.
All of her three books are worth reading.
Don
Don Cox said...
If Boris is still PM after ten years, he certainly should go. But that seems unlikely, unless he doubles his salary.
But even if you disagree with his policies, Boris is very far from being an autocrat. He is a traditional conservative politician, a little to the right of centre, like MacMillan. No resemblance to Mugabe or Assad or Khameini.
Don
12:36 pm
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"a traditional conservative politician" would NOT be still hiring EDI none-jobbers all over the public sector at huge cost to the taxpayer and no contribution to the economy. Indeed a "traditional conservative politician" would have got shot of the appalling Equalities Act, Labour's last act of sabotage when in power.
Slightly OTT an FoI request to Mendip Distric Council asking for the contribution to the economy of their (non-job) "Climate Resilience Officer" returned the response...
"None"
@ Elby
Thanks for that (Climate resilience Officer). A laugh is much needed this year.
Don
Elby - indeed. But the Equality Act hadn't hit the statue book in 2010 when Cameron got in. He had the chance to not sign it off. But naturally he nodded it through. Appling bit of vandalism.
Oli said...
Elby - indeed. But the Equality Act hadn't hit the statue book in 2010 when Cameron got in. He had the chance to not sign it off. But naturally he nodded it through. Appling bit of vandalism.
1:57 pm
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Ah. The Coalition government. Even worse. You expect that sort of legislative filth from the other parties. I've made it quite clear to our (excellent) Tory MP that there is no vote till that goes. Enough. The apparently underfunded NHS (see Guido passim) is endless recruiting EDI officers at grossly inflated salaries. And then complaining they don't have enough money.
Multiple expletives deleted. As far as I am concerned, our parliamentary "democracy" is severely broken - first sign was the expenses scandal, and they just kept on doubling down since then.
Now, THIS is more like it? Old school battle - name your Champion and let them battle it out.
Tickets like golddust.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10610887/I-challenge-Vladimir-Putin-single-combat-Elon-Musk-tweets-wants-fight-strongman.html
Waiting for E-K to join the International Brigade in Moscow to right the wrongs against Russia. Contribute at the Just Giving page.
Meanwhile could I signpost you to Kamil Galeev who has a rather jaundiced view of Putin and details a very interesting personal history of the man back to his time in St Petersburg. Basically the top of the Russian army is purged every so often to make take out any threats.
To be read while listening to music from the Godfather (I, II and III)
I see we will show our dislike of This Decades Hitler by raising petrol to £2.40 and diesel even higher. That'll show them!
I'm not sure Boris, Gove (or whoever has Boris's ear this week) has fully thought this one through. Round our way diesel is disappearing from supermarkets.
Wealthy politicians cut the nose off their far from wealthy voters faces to spite the Russians.
I suppose there was no way they could just have said before 2014 - "no way is Ukraine joining NATO, it gives the Russians the creeps".
I bet Sir Kneeler is glad he's not PM.
How many Generals does Putin have and why are they fighting on the front line/getting themselves killed/being sacked by Putin...that accounts for twelve according to our media. Perhaps he'll do better now he's lost so many? Must have been a terrible thing trying to coordinate all those Generals...
He may of course have another twelve Generals he can send out, and another. Such excess!
@anonymous 4:03
I’m afraid kung fu kev can’t come out to play soldiers
He’s been a very naughty boy and has a hurty knee
Anonymous Anonymous said...
I suppose there was no way they could just have said before 2014 - "no way is Ukraine joining NATO, it gives the Russians the creeps".
6:24 pm
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We did. We made it quite clear NATO would NOT move eastwards not long after the fall of the Soviet Union and allied states. Posted the statement on CW a while back.
https://mltoday.com/new-document-us-promised-not-to-expand-nato-eastward/
Daily Express (yeah, I know, prone to hysteria) claims the Putinoid has cut off the gas flow to Yurp.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1580728/putin-news-germany-gas-flow-yamal-europe-suspended-russia-poland-energy-crisis
Putin unleashes fury at Germany and HALTS gas flow from Russia – EU faces energy crisis
RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin appears to have unleashed his fury on Germany by suspending westbound gas flowing through a key pipeline.
Sounds unlikely, Elby.
I see that in order to not use any oil from the nasty people bombing Ukraine, we need those nice people who are bombing Yemen to pump more.
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