In the previous post I suggested:
... the Venezuela adventure is ... forcing Putin to eat more shit as he is lamely reduced to asking that his tanker crew will be nicely looked after. Yep, lots of random shit happens on Planet Trump ... both Russia and Xi are utterly dismayed, as ever, by the casual ease with which perfidious western nations sweep away years and even decades of patient strategic effort: this time Venezuela, the latest in a long series
- that series including Libya, Syria and Iran-as-Middle-East-counterweight (and supplier of arms to Russia).
Taking Russia first: Putin really had set a lot of strategic store by Venezuela - proportionately, a lot more than Xi, for whom these things are merely road-bumps, however annoying and tactically unpredictable. Ditto Syria, ditto Iran. Putin is beholden to N.Korea, FFS, at the same time as trying to project a superpower profile, so these setbacks are pretty hard to swallow. The Bear with the sore head is unlikely to cut anyone any favours on its western borders, witness the performative missile strike on Lviv; but he'll be watching Iran with an awful sense of déjà-vue doom. Where to parade his plonker now, except in the Donbas?
China looks very different. Xi pretty much believes in regional hegemony! So Venezuela may be a bit of a setback to a maturing long-term plan, and oil is oil; but hey, Taiwan is the only thing he really cares about, period.
Also, he's looking forward to wiping the floor with Trump - again - this year. He played Trump brutally last year. You say 'tariffs', Mr Trump? Nope, and we raise you rare earth metals. Now, hand over your very best chips, lots of them, before we reduce your remaining industries to rust and dust ... That's the way, Donald, there's a good boy. Now run along.
And 2026 is the mid-terms ... Venezuela, pffft. Trump and Xi are scheduled for a couple of summits this year, and the Chinese will be expecting to ream him again. What else of gigantic strategic value will Trump give away this time? The dawning of the Chinese era stands to be accelerated materially in just a few months. Scary stuff.
ND
UPDATE: see thread below - this is getting complicated !
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jan/17/china-blocks-nvidia-h200-ai-chips-that-us-government-cleared-for-export-report
49 comments:
Did I imagine Trump signing "rare earth" deals with a bunch of other countries than China to diversify supply?
When will Intel's new chip fabs come on line in the US? My guess is that until they are up and running properly Trump (and anyone who comes after him) will just aim to string Xi along, ceding ground to gain time. When the US no longer needs Taiwanese chips then they can get far more hardline with China, and the gloves will come off.
More to the point, is Trump gong to tell Sam Altman he can't just buy up 40% of global memory production on a whim?
Otherwise, it pretty much doesn't matter how much production gets added in the USA, as it won't touch the sides of the global shortage that's being created. And that's before considering what happens if Taiwanese production gets blown up by Xi''s activities...
Matt - oh, yes, the rest of the non-Chinese world is scurrying as fast as its little legs can carry it to find & develop rare-earths resources. Ain't gonna be able to substitute for China's for a lo-ong time to come. That's a lot of leverage at a critical time.
PS, the (Chinese) production processes are in several cases so vile, I can't see many western nations rushing to onshore them - their Greenies won't allow it. So I assume some poor benighted third-world countries will be deputed to carry out that task ...
Sobers if by 'stringing along' we include the recently Trump-approved sale of 'Hopper' chips (Nvidia's H200) in large quantities - and that without increasing production, so it means fewer for US and other buyers - then the Chinese are only too happy to be strung along. It's gonna accelerate their AI efforts manyfold. Read this, and despair.
PPS - forgot to mention: Russia's Ukraine adventure has now been going on for a few days longer than the Great Patriotic War 1941-45. Putin-boosters might want to look at the map and think carefully about that
Taiwan is fine as long as the US needs it's chips - Intel is belatedly getting back into the foundry game, which is more about the strategic plans of the now-ousted Gelsinger than Trump.
It's a toss up if it'll work, the 2nm process is similar to one Samsung abandoned, and so it is something of a risk, one already part funded by the US taxpayer.
Taiwan also know this, so TSMC's plans for expanding in to the West will take this into account. They're hardly going to increase our chip security at the expense of their own national security.
Xi will also know this, so it benefits the Chinese if the West can decouple from Taiwan. No idea how that'll translate to actuality though.
ND - I'm not sure how valid GPW comparisons are - no drones, no satellites, no ISR planes, no accurate terrain maps for drones to follow. But, if I remember the media coverage from 2021, Russia was going to run out of pretty much everything within weeks, looting washing machines for their chips, etc etc. The ruble would be rubble, the economy moribund.
But Russia is no threat economically, as I said last post. China very much is. China I assume would have been happier in a Trumpless world full of David Camerons, offering deals to build our nuclear plants (that we pioneered but can't do any more - a familiar story) and our communications technology. No risks there! Trump has come along like the proverbial bull rearranging the shelves in a china shop, and at least the US no longer has the illusions of the Clinton and Bush eras, that "China’s economic progress will create the internal conditions for a more democratic regime that will be more stable, and less of a potential global rival.”
Interesting times. But for a Brit it's a "sport" where we're no longer a Premier League player (apart from the odd black special forces op), and would be pretty vulnerable even in a conventional conflict. We just shout for our team.
CH makes a good point. If TSMC can replicate Taiwanese production in the States, aren't they cutting their own throats?
"The dawning of the Chinese era stands to be accelerated materially in just a few months. Scary stuff."
Well, we were warned as far back as 1998. A few years later a Chinese delegation visited the company I worked for, and I can remember the excitement at senior level - "if we just get x% of the market, that's y squillion pounds!".
"While our trade deficit rises to unprecedented heights, the powerful new China lobby shapes U.S. policy with the support of American businesses eager for a share of its booming markets."
https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Coming_Conflict_with_China.html?id=yVDUMH6i1_QC
(Watching the footy yesterday, I noticed it was sponsored by Chinese car manufacturer BYD.)
If you don’t like the 1941-1945 conflict as a historical reference, there’s always 1914 - 1917.
There the maxim machine gun was king of battlefield stagnation. The biggest killer and largest munitions cost was artillery.
Over the same terrain as now the Russians advanced. Until their military incompetence and lack of industrialisation led to the overthrow of their Czar.
Many of the complaints of today's Russia-watchers - over-optimistic frontline reports, fatal security lapses by individuals - have their parallels in WW1.
Russia had industrialised reasonably well. That's why the German Empire was so keen to go to war against them - to prevent increased Russian industrialisation making them unbeatable.
Do you know where we might be able to talk to some real, live Russian people, just to ask how they’re finding things — you know, the cost of living, the job market, housing, public services, infrastructure, all the things we like to matter about here, for example?
I’ve looked at all the usual social media platforms, but I can’t seem to see anything other than rather excitable milbloggers…
I remember when it was Gazprom. Goodness me, how times change, eh?
I did ask ChatGPT to have a look-see at what was on people’s mind there, here’s some things it found on the web. Of course, it’s all western propaganda in’nit?
—-
Top Complaints:
High inflation, rising prices (esp. food and utilities), low wages/pensions, unemployment, budget deficits. 40-72% inflation cited in related contexts; 70% of respondents in some analyses live near poverty line. Regional budgets strained, leading to "people's bonds" to extract funds from citizens. Food quality declining (e.g., toxic additives like palm oil due to shortages). Solo pickets protesting food prices spreading across regions.
War in Ukraine:
Fatigue, casualties, desire for end; worry about family members serving.
64% want peace deal per independent surveys; unsustainable losses (1.2M estimated casualties by late 2025) straining recruitment. Border regions like Belgorod report "hopeless" life amid drone strikes and outages.
Infrastructure & Utilities:
Heating failures, power/water outages, poor roads, snow clearance delays, collapsing systems (e.g., sewers, gas supply), widespread in provinces. Belgorod blackouts; Tyumen internet outages; St. Petersburg snow chaos; Tyumen "stench" from waste dumping. Aviation/space issues (e.g., cannibalizing parts, Baikonur failures).
Governance & Rights:
Corruption (e.g., trillions stolen from defense), repression, travel/education restrictions, populism over solutions. 11T rubles allegedly embezzled; increasing loss of opportunities (e.g., higher education tracking, foreign travel curbs). Police inaction, unreliable public services.
Social Issues:
Migrant influx (crime, job competition), medicine shortages, demographic decline, poor healthcare. Complaints in cities like Tyumen; water/medicine shortages, late wages eroding purchasing power. Birth rates critically low.
@ Clive..thought you were describing UK for a second.
I did have a chuckle to myself about some of the similarities!
Which suggests that, if countries as varied as the UK, the US, Russia, China and many more I could mention have either the same problems, or different versions of the same problem, or the fix to a problem involves a different set of trade-offs that these problems are generic and systemic and no-one has any easy answers.
Certainly no answers which are just waiting to be implemented if only "they [insert your favourite hate figure here, if you're after an good standby, use "elites" or some other such nebulous agency] would let us". Which we hear here all the time.
What we can do is let another lot have a go in office to see if they can make a better fist of things in a couple of years or so at the next election. Certainly I for one am couting down the days until there's a chance to do that.
What, do, though you advise your ordinary Russian to do, faced with a long, long list of vexing issues?
And while some are common to the UK and Russia too, some are in -- how best to put it? -- a different league altogether. Bad as, say, Ryan Air are, while we can moan about being conned out of a tenner for a can of coke and a sandwich on board, at least they don't have to play scavanger hunt for spares before take-off.
Much to enjoy in the news. The West Midlands Rozzers v Israel Lobby match looks a game of two halves and the ref looks definitely dodgy. See how the stewards goes.
Mr Trump seems to follow Napoleon's advice. Not much use dropping a few bunker busters in the middle of Tehran. The Mullahs are doing a good job of making the country a wreck. Leave them to it - a bit callous I know.
The Venezuela stunt is still working out well. Want some oil Mr Xi? roll up and ask nicely. But no Mr Putin, not even if you ask nicely. But the oil terminals are not the only part of Venezuela, there is a big economic hinterland, not much of it good. Trouble to come there.
Pity about Cuba, so far from God, so near to America (to borrow a phrase). Best left alone. Ukraine/Russia - very usefully Europe's problem.
Re Taiwan, by the time the US gets 2um fabs TMSC will be on 1um and better. All the better for the Billion Dollar AI brain and US protection. Mr Xi may wish but easier to build 1um capability at home - the chemical and support infrastructure will be well worth the effort. The semiconductor race will end, Xi can pick up Taiwan on the cheap then.
Trump's legacy looks a bit mixed. A long flog to November but the first inklings should be visible sooner. August is a wicked month.
"some are in -- how best to put it? -- a different league altogether"
Like housing. 2.5 times more expensive in London than Moscow. And I invite you to ponder what life in he UK would be like under the sanctions the US/EU have applied to Russia. (Although my view is still that EU sanctions have harmed the EU more than they've harmed Russia.)
I wonder what ND's view on quantum computing is? As I understand it, it'll immediately break the encryption that we all use for financial transactions and communications, but it'll only be available to governments and billionaires.
Don't know about ND, but back in the day if you made crypto gear you got a visit from men in white trench coats - with words of advice.
If you run a significant data centre you may get a visit requesting a plug into the monitoring ports of the your more interesting systems. Totally legal one way or the other.
Post quantum crypto algorithms are already standardised, you would be unwise to roll your own. The big banks are quite good at crypto and the stuff that surrounds that trade.
London (United Kingdom): Approximately $4,172 (£65,994 average annual gross salary)
Moscow (Russia): Approximately $1,039 (around 50,000 to 60,000 rubles per month median, or $7-8k/year average
… so Moscow housing looks a bit overpriced then. Of course, the cost of living in London is higher. But Purchasing Power Parity hoodwinking only gets you so far when you need a month’s salary to buy an iPhone in Russia (and the comparison gets even worse for rural inhabitants).
Nice pivot there, incidentally, from sanctions effects are way overblown to sanctions effects are such that you wouldn’t want to see them applied to your country if you could possibly help it.
Have you ever considered laying out your arguments all in one go for our convenience, rather than having to have them teased out of you piecemeal, before we get the whole story?
OT but a neat comment at the Graun from one "Froghole2".
"The primary reason why the EU/UK is unlikely to go beyond purely performative 'action' in connection with Greenland is because of the money. The trade surplus which the EU/UK has with the US has been eroding rapidly, but it is essential to offset an increasingly parlous bilateral trade relationship with China. Chinese import penetration of Germany increased by 118% last year, and its current account surplus is now at a record high. Therefore, if the EU/UK loses its surplus with the US and moves into aggregate deficit then it must start to run a capital account surplus, which means that more and more European assets will need to be sold to buyers outside Europe so that current and capital accounts balance, reducing Europe's economic sovereignty still further. The UK has been in deficit on its current account for decades, which is why most of its national assets are now owned by overseas interests and revenue streams are diverted abroad, amplifying the UK's investment problem. Trump can thus amplify the decline of the EU/UK surplus with the US with a stroke of a pen.
Nor is that all: Centrist parties in the EU/UK are doomed if there is a meaningful transfer of resources from social welfare to the military (but also from civilian investment to the military, as that will have the effect of deepening stagnation). That is why European leaders have thought it essential that the US provides a backstop, or functions as insurer, for European 'guarantees' of Ukrainian territorial integrity: it is really about the money (and perhaps about pressing for escalation if the guarantee is secured, so that the US can be 'forced' to intervene and cover enough of the Europeans' costs to prevent them from having to decide between guns and butter). But the US isn't interested in this pretty transparent ploy, which has made the Europeans all the more desperate, because there is an increasing risk that they will indeed have to tell their voters that reduced welfare entitlements are a 'price worth paying' for the defence of eastern Europe, which will likely result in their eviction from office. The US knows all this, which is presumably why they feel that they can make such outrageous proposals over Greenland.
It's really difficult to know where Europe should go from here in default of a concerted move towards profoundly deeper integration, and federalism, for which there currently seems to be little political appetite. After 2016 it was said that the UK would find itself in a no-man's-land between power blocs. On current projections, it looks set to be a no-man's-land on the edge of another no-man's-land."
Leonardo’s, Westlands as was, are suggesting the government give them the money for the helicopters, or they pack up for good. Deadline of March, this year.
Hesseltine is still alive and available for comment.
And if so there goes another chunk of UK manufacturing.
I've been contemplating the writing of an American blogger. If Trump does something - indeed, almost anything - the blogger cries that it is unprecedented and proves that Trump is Literally Hitler.
If Trump refrains from something - e.g. attacking Iran in the early hours of this morning - it is greeted with Trump Always Chickens Out.
Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing, isn't it?
Any "Loss to UK Manufacturing" Is overstated or nuanced. While Yeovil is often called the UK's "last military helicopter factory," the manufacturing isn't fully sovereign or end-to-end in a purely British sense.
Leonardo is Italian-owned, and under the NMH bid, main production would occur in Italy, with only final assembly at Yeovil.
This means the "chunk of UK manufacturing" at stake is more about assembly, maintenance, and integration than complete design-to-delivery capability. This diminishes the strategic value of saving it, especially if it relies on foreign ownership and could be relocated anyway.
Additionally, the plant's viability has been strained by broader UK issues like defense budget constraints, procurement inefficiencies and intense competition from the US. Framing it solely as a regrettable loss ignores these systemic problems, which have led to underutilization despite Leonardo's investment. From a business perspective, Leonardo's stance is pragmatic: the company has invested heavily without reciprocal orders. Importantly, closure threats are a negotiation tactic amid rising global tensions where defense resilience is key.
However, awarding the contract could mean higher costs for the UK taxpayer if it's not competitively priced, especially after other bidders (Airbus and Lockheed) dropped out over profitability concerns. What do you intend to do -- force these suppliers to accept what the consider unviable bids by the UK government?
In short, your assessment risks oversimplifying a complex interplay of government delays, corporate economics, and defence strategy.
Anon at 11:50, Jim - on q-computing: what Jim said.
The maths of quantum computing & q-cryptography / encryption were settled a very long time ago - way, way ahead of actual q-comp coming into meaningful existence. the moment it becomes "widely available" we'll all be shepherded smartly behind q-encrypted walls
The problem will be the duration of what will hopefully be a very brief interregnum. Imagine you are Xi or Trump or Musk or some other Bond villain and you have the world's first and only q-comp at your disposal: what can you get up to in the majority, pre-q-comp sector of the world before the doors slam shut?
Assume (optimistically?) it's the USA, & take the national security angle: the NSA will have on record decades of encrypted Russian and Chinese transmissions they've never yet been able to decode. You'll be able to crack them via brute force methods using the q-comp - revealing decades-worth of secrets. There will inevitably be some plum discoveries to be had - some of historical interest by now, like the opening up of Cabinet papers under the 30-year rule; but doubtless some of current relevance, too (names, locations, formulae ...)
The only saving grace is that this has been clear to all concerned for many years. Only an imbecile government would have failed to conduct a review of vulnerabilities under the above scenario
- and we never suffer from imbecile governments ... do we ..?
The other — tantalising — possibility is that someone has already achieved this and is, like the British government did selling “unbreakable” Enigma machines to unsuspecting (and rather gullible) countries, keeping schtum while benefiting from this incredible advantage.
Classic tool from the Soviet propaganda toolbox — playing both sides of an argument at the same time. “They are warmongers, we only want peace!” / “We are strong and nigh on invincible, our enemies are weak and destined to fail at whatever they do!”.
The Soviet output of this “two camps” / “them-us” / “black vs. white” messaging was very consistent, quite adept and professional in its way, but was repetitive and dull. It was sturdy, serviceable, but it lacked what I can only describe as that Hollywood sparkle. Americans though have an amazing seemingly innate ability to take a basic narrative concept, simplify it, package it, sanitise it and ultimately commoditise it before marketing it with imagination and creative style. It just seems a gift that comes naturally to many, many of them.
They've taken these old, rather shopworn Soviet propaganda stalwarts and sharpened them up, added as certain mass media, consumerist flair and pizazz. You see it everywhere on the internet.
It is unfortunately heading for saturation point, however novel and imaginative those doing it try to be. And quite a bit is descending into low effort engagement farming. Even hit shows run their course with audiences, however good they were. Sooner or later, Fonzie jumps a shark.
Talking of imbecilic governments - are Germany having a Damascus moment?
Speaking at the New Year’s reception of the Halle-Dessau Chamber of Industry and Commerce on Thursday, Merz said he aimed to restore “acceptable market prices in energy production,” without constant government subsidies. “It was a serious strategic mistake to phase out nuclear power,” Merz said, criticizing his predecessors. In his words, Germany is undergoing the “most expensive energy transition in the world.”
Starmer - "hold my beer!".
“We inherited a situation that we now need to change, but we simply don’t have enough energy generation capacity,” Merz added.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-14/merz-says-eu-has-signed-off-on-german-plan-for-new-gas-plants
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing and they have announced a 'new strategic partnership'. Among key concessions, the two leaders have agreed that China will lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed, while Canada will allow 49,000 Chinese EVs into its market.
On quantum computing and encryption: you don't need quantum encryption to defeat quantum decryption, there is already "quantum proof" encryption available, and symmetric encryption is already highly resilient to it.
And with the AI hype, quantum is already being lined up as the successor so as to keep SV's mouths firmly suckling VC's teats when the AI goes the way of the metaverse, blockchain, NFTs, and all the other digital snake oil.
So allow me to be cynical, Google has - a company that knows a couple of things about advertising - talked up it Willow chips, and various other places have been excited about the number of qubits they can juggle now.
It's another Potential Game Changer, albeit one that lives in mortal terror of space heaters, but the number of things it can be used for is unlikely to match the kind of scale/costs needed for commercially viable, when machines are pretty spiffy now. You may like to have a Bugatti to do the weekly shop in, but realistically, you're going for something rather more reasonably priced.
Pretty much OT, but nonetheless entertaining comments - 2013 article by a UK professor on why "We eurozoners must create a United State of Europe" - because "only a single Anglo-American style fiscal and military union can save the EU".
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/apr/23/united-state-of-europe-anglo-american-union#comments
The past is a foreign country ....
Caesar - quantum being lined up? I have another candidate: fusion.
AI is clearly angling for blind-stupid politicians to send taxpayer money their way (see the US Defense budget, Tony Blair etc etc). Same people will buy off on fusion just as readily. "All we need is another couple or three billion ..." and the VCs will pile in behind
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4y4HyP8DEds ("Tony Blair's urgent call - get behind AI ..."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg59pqeyxvo ("Fusion gets £2.5bn government boost ..."
This H200 business is getting complicated !
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jan/17/china-blocks-nvidia-h200-ai-chips-that-us-government-cleared-for-export-report
AI, Fusion, Medicine, Materials look to be the big new games. Medicine is for poor people, materials a bit meh. Which leaves AI and Fusion as tantalising get rich quick games.
AI is little more than a souped up Wikipedia, it can find stuff fast if you happen to have it stored away some where. If not AI will make it up or give a bland non answer. Lacks something essential.
Sure, AI can drive the calculation for molecular iterations which drive medicines and materials but there is a great deal our computer models don't address. Much of our physics is highly (too?) simplified. Meanwhile Mother Nature has tried a good number of the possibilities already. No quick bucks there.
Is AI biased, could we build an AI Conservative Party or a Super Jenrick Party or a Corbyn AI model? Yes, AI is biased by its training. AI will become further biased by the success or failure of its applications - a kind of survival of the fittest. But up against human brains, cheating, lying, politics and zero mathematics. No match.
Building a steam power station was easy, an overgrown tea kettle. We know fusion works but doing a little one seems a bit hard. Is there some minimum size of vessel feasible for ignition and control - is that vessel a few meters across or 100 meters across? We don't know and neither does ChatGPT or Wikipedia - there is no one to crib the answer from. The books have no formula. If you want to know sling a few billion $$ at the problem.
Fusion has been ten years away since the 1960s - in fact our first fusion attempts were in the 50s with ZETA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZETA_(fusion_reactor)
(The thought occurs that given access to the census and B/M/D databases, AI would be fantastic for doing the donkey-work of building basic family trees. Surprised Ancestry haven't done it, or does it take all the fun away? And how do they stop Google from stealing all their data?)
Not realised that the director of theoretical phyics at Harwell was one Klaus Fuchs. Oops ! But that meant the Russians started fusion research as well...
The whole 'security' story around the fission and fusion bombs seems a bit slack. Maybe deliberately so, a situation where Jo McCarthy and friends were the only ones with a viable rocket and nuke might have been a bit more nerve wracking.
Fuchs was sent down by Lord Goddard and I remember my father appeared as a witness before LG. The issue being whether or not a pedigree cow sold by one big shot to another big shot was or was not 'in calf'. She wasn't. My dad wisely declared 'She had been to the bull M'Lord, that's all I said'. The 1950s were different in so many ways.
"So, Mr Starmer! You dare to contradict ME? Take this 10% tariff - it's a good tariff, the best tariff. Then from June 1, take an even better one, 25% !!"
Even Farage isn't impressed. Interesting times...
Trump tariffs over Greenland will deliver some tangible benefit to the US because Europe is weak and can't afford anything else.
Well it looks like they're in for a scrap, you go out for the evening and this happens:
The plug is expected to be pulled on Donald Trump’s tariff deal with the EU by the European parliament on Wednesday after the two biggest blocs of MEPs said they would halt the legal ratification process in response the US president’s latest threats.
Manfred Weber, the head of the European People’s Party, the largest voting bloc in the institute, said “approval is not possible” in light of the latest events. The remarks were backed by the second biggest voting bloc, the Socialists and Democrats (S&Ds). Kathleen Van Brempt, vice president for trade for the S&Ds, said there could be “no trade deal under given circumstances”. Together they represent 324 of the 720 seats in the parliament and are expected to be backed by the Greens and other groups. “The EPP is in favour of the EU–U.S. trade deal, but given Donald Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, approval is not possible at this stage. The 0% tariffs on U.S. products must be put on hold,” Weber said.
China will be absolutely loving this. A great pity, because if Europe have to choose between economic thralldom to the US or to China, they'd be mad to choose China.
Monday's open might be interesting.
I’ve no sympathy for the EU at all in this. The EU’s playbook is almost entirely composed of exercising economic leverage to get its way.
The UK wants tariff-free access to the EU Single Market? Well, the EU insisted that it got to determine what could or couldn’t be sold or imported into Northern Ireland and a lot of economic policy which could or couldn’t apply. A pretty big sovereignty grab, if you ask me.
Trump is merely a bigger and better operator. Of course, the EU’s legitimate interests and need to safeguard its borders are Trump’s nasty throwing his weight around and grabbing what he wants just because he can
Honestly, a bigger bunch of principle-free hypocrites would be hard to find.
@ND - I'm not sure it'll be fusion - takes a lot more spades in the ground than a datacenter, and even quantum datacenters will be just be a beefy iteration on the existing ones - power and cooling, just scaled.
In terms of power, it's worth keeping an eye on fission - US energy prices are heading northwards due to all the datacenters, and generation capacity just can't keep up. So the SV players are looking at getting into nuclear.
For the UK, might be worth giving Meta some carrots to invest in them, as I wouldn't be unduly shocked if the became distressed assets inside a decade. Beyond social media, Zuckerberg hasn't shown much ability to pick winners - the very thing he rebranded as the public image of FB, and its siblings, has just been unceremoniously binned.
As for Trumps latest threats, why aren't we responding in a slightly smarter fashion? Maybe musing about compulsory purchasing Turnberry and turning it into the Joe Biden Wind Farm. What debts are still controlled by EU or UK banks? What will exact a personal cost on Trump, what will bring him to the table? Instead of tit for tat, where have we got some kind of personal leverage?
As Archimedes once said, in his Tony Montana phase, give me a fulcrum and someone's arm, and they'll either do as I say or lose use of their arm.
This is the political version of asymmetric warfare, so lean into it. We don't want to piss off the US as a whole, just give Trump the impetus to change tack.
He wants Greenland to be part of his Golden Dome - which sounds like someone's pet name for Yul Brinner - access it's minerals, and control the arctic routes that are forming. Those are grounds for a deal. Give him the top ten miles of Greenland or something, he'll spin that into "and I brought Greenland into the US" - Trump is the guy you give the cherry too, and let him spend three hours telling everyone about the cake and the icing you've still got.
And the fun bit, if he wants the Golden Dome to be so super, he'd be best off getting some Ukrainian advice - they've already taken a lot of US gear and expanded past what its maximum capabilities were believed to be - sell him things, show him the value of the shiny-shiny. He's a magpie, not a hawk.
Guardian
"Minister says Germany will not be 'blackmailed' by Trump
Germany and its European partners will not be “blackmailed” by Donald Trump, German finance minister and vice chancellor Lars Klingbeil said on Sunday, after the US president announced additional tariffs to pressure Europe in the Greenland dispute."
But Bild reports that the German troops sent to Greenland have been put on a plane back to Germany !
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