The Donald is, by his own estimation, a legendary deal-maker and negotiator. Well, he does get (some) things done, and indeed sometimes gets his own way. But how much of this is deal-making? And how good are his deals? His reputation in the New York real estate sector sucks is, errr, equivocal.
He's been in action quite a bit this year! So there's something to score: and we can form an early view on his performance as a negotiator up against several prominent counterparties.
vs China: Trump is losing, hands down. The Chinese are playing him like a fiddle, and he's steadily backing down on the tariff war, step by step. Yet surely, by every standard of US foreign policy as espoused in the past decade by both his and the Democrat party, this is the only game that truly matters. Sheesh... this really matters! - did he think he could simply swat Xi aside one spring afternoon while he was mostly busy, errr, earning his Nobel Peace prize, annexing the whole North American land mass, remodelling the White House, peddling his crap merchandise, running feuds against everyone he's ever had a grievance against etc etc etc?
vs Russia: jury still out, perhaps, but Putin won't be particularly disconcerted by their exchanges to date. Relative to the extraordinary prior claims made by Trump ("peace in Ukraine in one day!"), and his huffing and puffing about "consequences", the current state of play is pretty demeaning for him.
vs Mexico and Canada: given how things looked at the start of the whole tariffs round, OK-ish for M & C. They've mostly stood their ground, and the world hasn't fallen down around their ears by any means. Makes Trump's early rhetoric look pretty silly - and that's just on trade. As for annexing Canada ... (I think we can hear the laughter from here - and Greenland probably isn't too worried just now, either.)
vs India: jury definitely still out, because India has options. Trump has dealt his blow - but will he get any pleasure from what happens over the next months and years? Not at all clear. How clever is it to send Modi scuttling to Beijing, hmm?
vs Starmer: surely, 2-1 to Trump. Starmer has chosen to grovel, in return for some relative 'gains' (negatively defined, which is the only thing we can say) when compared to the EC, see below. But it has suited Trump to give a little pat on the head to the biggest arse-licker, just pour encourager les autres.
vs the EC: a seriously bad result for the EU, courtesy of the unelected EC which holds much of Europe's fate in their hands. Feeble stuff. A bit of a surprise, given how comprehensively the EC wiped the floor with Cameron and May. But from this distance, that probably tells us more about them than it does about the EC.
vs Iran: personally, I can't call this one yet. Need to keep it in view: could tell us quite a lot.
Crazy man, crazy times.
ND
1 comment:
China is deeply in the shit with the US tariffs. Big cities are shedding people due to lack of employment. Xi looks to be in a precarious position in the CCP as well. So, too early to identify a winner but it appears Trump will prevail over the next 6 months.
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