Such has been the volatility of events in the Gulf, commentators have had very little of substance to offer beyond the macro comments that Trump has been dancing to Netanyahu's tune, that the mullahs' regime has a lot of intrinsic resilience & indeed strength in many dimension, and that the Gulf states need to come up with a new business plan. OK, we can all conjure up lurid worst-case scenarios. But what does it mean for mortgages and prices at the pump? Etc etc.
This uncertainty manifests itself in endless commentariat hedging (e.g. HMG, BBC) but also in outright hysteria. The very dubious Fatih Birol of the IEA has delivered himself of the view that the current situation is like the first two oil crises (1973-4 & 1979) plus 2022, all rolled up into one. Well, no, it isn't - yet. Like, not even remotely. I worry when people like him have influence on world affairs (if indeed he does).
Back, then, to Trumpety-Trump. His demeaning and very public flailing and railing over the past week clearly signals he doesn't like how things have turned out, one little bit. (Why wasn't I told Iran wasn't like Venezuela?) So now we know that a combination of negative market sentiment and negative MAGA sentiment marks the limits of his manic confidence. That's a comfortably low threshold for him recognising a need to sober up. One might have feared his personal pride, running up against the brick wall of Iranian intransigence, would result in a ratchet effect all the way up to a small nuke. We need our leaders to have some kind of restraints.
On the downside (and speaking of small nukes), we're left with the enduring problem of Netanyahu, who might very well find himself owning the broken vase in a short while from now. Now there's a man who doesn't sober up just because the Dow Jones slips a few points and the neighbours are banging on the walls.
On the plus, we have a lot more realistic input on the thorny issue of what air defence needs to look like in the late 2020's, coupled with a pressing need for the west's armaments industry to gear up for several years of serious production. We might also escape the nightmare of Iran becoming a failed state, which would make the Syrian and Afghan exodus of the last decade look like a picnic outing.
What it all means for NATO / Cuba / the mid-terms / Taiwan / Russia-Ukraine / Starmer etc etc etc ... time will tell.
Finally, it seems Trump won't be going on the planned trip to Beijing in the immediate future. Given that in all probability he'd have been induced to give away more of the family silver to the Chinese, that's a good thing. Let's hope he never goes there again.
ND
13 comments:
Could I mention that there's an alternative view coming from former UK ambassador to one of the 'stans Craig Murray. In his view Trump is less clown manipulated by Netanyahu, more Dr Evil. I'm not convinced myself, but "were it true, it would be very sad".
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2026/03/seeing-trump-clearly/
Trump’s thrashing about to articulate objectives for the war in Iran is performative, a blind to cover his true and steadfast objective – simply the annihilation of Iran as a functioning state, the infliction of the maximum amount of death and infrastructural damage, the reduction of Iran to the condition of Libya....destruction of Iran on the scale envisaged will take years of hard pounding. Again, it is planned – you don’t ask Congress for an installment of $200 billion for a war you plan to wrap up in a month. Again, Trump’s taunts about having already won, objectives being achieved and about possibly finishing soon, are all just smoke and mirrors. The scale and horror of what is planned for Iran has to be obfuscated to limit a public revulsion that would be echoed in parts of the state apparatus.
Don't buy any of that.
As we castigate Russia for taking on Ukraine with forced regime-change intent but 'only' 350,000 men and a full airforce in 2022, who, even Trump, would take on Iran - nearly twice the size and well over double the population - with Murray-style intent, with just one-and-a half carrier groups, some bombers and a few thousand marines?
The $200 bn is easily explained: that scale of budget increase request was already in the works. Trump intends to procure, inter alia, a new class of 20-25 'battleships' of 35-40,000 tons, if you please - the "Trump" class, of course - and other manic military excesses. Plus, there's an absolute shitload of missiles in need of replenishment.
Murray is a d******d.
As I understand it the idea would be more like bombing Iran back to the stone age, not lots of boots on ground. Still I agree with you that Murray's Dr Evil Trump presupposes a consistent, thought-through and long-held policy, not things we necessarily associate ....
Even I, a news junkie if ever there was one, have tuned out pretty much every single piece of “expert commentary” on this.
There’s so much cherry picking and partial reporting on all sides. It takes very little energy sector knowledge to debunk a lot of it. The much ballyhooed damage to the Qatari LNG production (we eventually got to the real, substantive capacity reduction, 12% for some years to come) was widely covered.
Completely omitted was the new production capacity from the Golden Pass LNG in the US (ironically Qatari funded!) which adds at a stroke a new 3.5% to total global production for LNG.
What does seem plausible are subtle but important shifts in global energy supply and demand. China and south east Asia seem particularly adversely affected by both supply risks outside Iran and Iranian willingness to use the straight of Hormuz as a bargaining chip — and sod the consequences. If there’s reckless gamblers marauding around the world, Trump isn’t the only one.
@ 12% for some years to come
As an old oil & gas hand, I'll be quite surprised if the hit on Qatari production that's been taken so far, needs to be as deep and long-lasting as that very hasty announcement suggested. IMHO, that (pessimistic) projection could be correct if, e.g., the end-result of the whole shooting-match is night falling on the Gulf as a whole, expat engineers deserting en masse, nobody trusting Qatar as a source of LNG, nobody willing to get stuck into / pay for repairs.
But if BAU is somehow restored - a bloody big 'if', I concede - the turnaround should be quicker. And China & the rest of Asia will recommence buying just as soon as production & shipping recommences. The gas hasn't gone away, nor the demand, nor (yet) the expertise.
This is not the same as Russian gas in even greater quantities being forced off the Eu market in 2022. Everyone could (eventually) see those reserves would be staying in the ground for the medium term, at the very least.
If this is indeed Trump backing down, (necessary in my opinion) even if supplies are restored I see no back to normal politically and because of that economically in the longer term.
US Isreal have put political assassination of recognised heads of State on the table as an acceptable policy tool. (Much as the crap awful NATO invasion of Kosovo put random land grabs under 'humanitarian' guises on the table.
US power in the Gulf has been shown to be weak, they are still there, they can build, but they got rinsed more than they care to admit. And whenpush cameto shove the didnt give a shit about the Gulf monarchies only a belligerent Israel
Iran (and any other country feeling insecure) must get the bomb. The Iranians have played with an open hand and not relaly wanted the bomb (see actual US intelligence assessments not that pushed by the Israel lobby.
The Americans are visibly untrustworthy, you cannot negotiate with the Americans, they will only attack you nor will they protect you. (See above).
THE GCC business model beyond oil and gas is screwed, I personally dont see Dubai coming back from this.
Israel has exposed itself as no-ones friend;
So yes the oil may flow and a semblance of normality will return, but nothing can or will stay the same IMO.
H
deadhead? drunkard?
Assassination isn't some new thing. Google tells me that the Old Testament reports that "Of the 42 kings and one queen who ruled Israel and Judah, approximately 13 died at the hands of assassins."
30%!! Hell's bells that's more than the USA has had.
All I know is that the usual rolodex list of 'experts' know as much about how the US/Iran war is going to turn out as they did about the Russia/Ukraine one has, ie the square root of SFA. Its all just bloviating and taking money for spouting BS in the MSM.
Nice to see Putin still commenting on here.
Perhaps Trump could join Anon10.51 Vlad and ND could host a phone in.
Well, if the Iranians can effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, then so can the UAE. There's some beef 'tween the Qataris and the Saudis, it would appear.
Then, there's the Bab Al-Mundab. Or the Canal itself. Seem to have been here before.
Ignoring the US, there's the regional powerplays, Iran, Saudi, Israel. Iraq's not in the game anymore.
Add the US back in, then all the proxies.
The Saudis and the Emiratis don't exactly seem to joining in, offensively. Passively, hosting US bases.
Of course, the Saudis flogged off a chunk of Aramco, what's the state of the Ghawar field again?
Trump got a 30 year old jet out of the Qataris, would there be anything else incoming?
USD-backed crypto?
The firehose of falsehoods, that I can put up with. It’s the firehose of vagueposting which has me scratching my head.
Anon 8.22, I am bemused by your nonsense, please tell me substantively and we can discuss like grown ups until then you are bloviating.
Best,
H
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