You don't need to be a second Clausewitz to know that wars of choice should have well-defined goals before even the planning gets underway, let alone the execution[1]. In saying this, nobody is advocating total inflexibility thereafter; but to launch a war without proper goals at the outset is just buccaneering adventurism.
It's a commonplace observation that Trump hasn't a clue what he's doing in the Middle East, beyond representing a vague, atavistic American fixation with Iran, and harbouring a ludicrously and dangerously false equation between Venezuela 2026 and Iran 2026. To the extent he sometimes feels the urge to state one or more war aims, he's issued so many over the hours, days and weeks that it merely goes to reinforce his brainlessness. (To its credit, the intelligentsia in the USA is gradually shaking off its paralysis of 2025 and is ready to call him out in scathing detail - see this from the estimable Ryan Evans.) Already we can offer his Iranian adventure as a perfect illustration of the principle given above: and we haven't remotely seen the full downside potential yet.
But there's another perfect illustration bubbling away somewhere north of Iran, where Putin still conducts his own ill-conceived war on Ukraine.
At the very outset, he articulated two war aims, plus a long list of gripes and grievances. They were: (A) to "de-Nazify" Ukraine's body politic; and (B) to "demilitarise Ukraine". In the same announcement he declared he had no territorial claims on Ukraine (sic), although it's fair to note that at the same time he was asserting that Luhansk and Donetsk were independent countries. And of course he assumed that after his lightning war, there would be a puppet regime in Kyiv, Belarus-style, that would render territorial conquest irrelevant.
[In the runup to the "special military operation" (which was "defensive, in aid of Luhansk and Donetsk"), he had of course demanded that NATO and the EU shun Ukraine, and that the former must withdraw to pre-accession borders. But those were hardly war aims: he hoped they'd fall into his lap at the negotiating table when Ukraine was, errr, defeated.]
Given A and B above, manifestly he has completely and utterly failed even by his own lights; and everyone in Russia knows it. There has been no regime change in Kyiv, whatever childish political label he wants to attach to it. And demilitarisation? Pound for pound, Ukraine now has the best army in the world, a thriving defence industry, world-leading expertise in drone warfare, etc etc; and is reducing a vastly larger force to ruinously costly advances through unimportant hamlets at snail's pace. Oh yes, and on the other side of the front line it is degrading Russia's mighty energy industry to a material degree; periodically grounding its civil air movements; blocking its ports; sinking its ships; and (in conjunction with sanctions) hobbling its economy.
Here's where it gets interesting for the theme of this post. Reports from fairly reliable Russian sources suggest Putin is under tremendous internal political pressure to find an off-ramp before the economy nosedives. Those oligarchs still have some sway, if they conduct themselves cautiously. One major thrust of this exercise[2] is to come up with some - wait for it - War Aims, such as can plausibly be declared duly accomplished. Then it's "home for tea and medals" as we say in the British Army.
What, then, do we imagine his newly-forged war aims will be? It's a serious question, notwithstanding that sarcastic suggestions come quickly to mind.
We'll take both kinds BTL - let's see what we can come up with to help L'il Volodya with Project "Absolute Victory26".
ND
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[1] Long-time readers will know I often laud George HW Bush (Bush Snr) for his adherence to this principle when setting out to evict Saddam from Kuwait, 1990-91. More on that conflict by following the 'Kuwait' and 'Saddam' tags on that post.
[2] Another is to keep plugging away at Trump, trying to persuade him that utter Ukrainian defeat is just around the corner, so why not tell Zelensky to surrender? Yeah, right. I have a feeling the moment for this gambit has passed.
21 comments:
That disastrous economy ... would that UK GDP was 8 x bigger than in 2000 - although it would probably be all in "notional" (i.e. imaginary) rents.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-worlds-biggest-economies-by-gdp-per-capita-growth-2000-2026/
That GDP figures can be fiddled is nowhere more obvious than in Japan's ostensible 7% fall over the last 25 years. They just want to keep The Eye Of Sauron from gazing in their direction.
"a vague, atavistic American fixation with Iran": yes, that's always struck me as wildly irrational. Ironically if you ask which powerful country has given most support to Moslem terrorism over the decades it's probably the USA.
It's such a pity that Trump has gone off on this stupid adventure: in terms of domestic politics he's just what America needs. Now he may have thrown it all away.
As for Russia: Putin couldn't, could he, double up by invading, say, Latvia?
What sort of end game could Putin achieve? Key is to hint to Ukraine he wants 'fanites'. The Ukranians need to be persuaded that chasing Putin all the way back to his lair is not helpful and Putin needs to be persuaded that 'one last gesture' is not helpful either. Wind it down gently.
The name of the game is money. The Trump folly looks like going on till October or beyond which means Putin could make like a bandit if only he had some oil infrastructure left. So Putin could be on an earner. All he needs is a bit more smoke and fire from his refineries and an intelligent interlocutor. Money speaks all languages.
Meanwhile at home our newspapers remind of that old Pravda - Isvestia story. Our King has taken his dose of diplomatic humiliation and so has Starmer and the Chief Rozzer is taking his humiliation manfully. That is what they are paid for.
Mr Trump might ponder the calibration of his bomb and money aiming before kicking off again.
Slightly OT - at pro-Russian sites like MoA people complain that the West can only have "a thriving defence industry" because China is selling them all the drone kit. But some 17 years ago (so things may have changed) Eamonn Fingleton was pointing out that all the tiny bearings and electric motors were actually Japanese made. Anyone know what the current situation is? I sort-of wondered if, under US pressure, Japan had told China they'd only sell the kit if China let the West have it? May be too involved an explanation, and China are happy for Russia to be under pressure, but not for them to lose.
"Pound for pound, Ukraine now has the best army in the world"
Interesting, isn't the average age 43? And Ukraine male life expectancy is 65? Of course having the best soldiers is no guarantee of victory, ask Germany or indeed Jacobite Scotland. Ukraine has a lot less poundage than Russia.
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/average-age-ukrainian-soldiers-past-40-and-could-be-problem
Really, the only one he can go for with a straight-ish face is the protection of Russian speakers in East Ukraine, claim that Kyiv has been forced to de-Nazify and to stop its accession into NATO, albeit through disputed lands which he'll gloss over.
Will he swallow that though? Wasn't too long ago he'd reduced his aims to just two whole regions, now it'll be parts of those regions and without any real acceptance of them as Russian territory, and no doubt Ukraine ready to pivot to filling them with insurgents, ensuring anyone hands-on from Moscow will heading back that way in a body bag.
And with what amounts to a defeat, would that now park him in the Losers section of Trumps worldview.
I’m not sure, for, like, the millionth time, where you learned to do statistics.
AI is your friend here (although it’s perhaps not surprising you throw shade on it, now that I stop to think about it). Try somewhere between two and three times bigger https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMg_d1721003-8d2c-44a2-87d1-077fafbe13f8
Now do Poland.
You’re welcome.
Supply chains are endlessly fascinating. Honestly, trying to figure them out is like pulling on a thread in a tapestry.
Tangential to what you said, while China is the undisputed champ of rare earths, you can’t do an awful lot with a lorry load of rare earth minerals. They’re a vital raw material of course, but they need lots of processing to make them useful. Industrial gasses is one such. For those interested, tungsten is a good place to go down a very interesting rabbit hole.
And China is nowhere for industrial gasses. Sorry about the spammy website but this industry analysis is a good overview https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/ResearchInsight/industrial-gases-market.asp
The market is owned by US, German, UK and Japanese players. Japan just recently expanded its “catch all” export restrictions to target a broad range of these (China was mentioned but not explicitly identified as the reason but it looks a clear tit-for-tat retaliation for China’s rare earth restrictions to Japan https://www.amt-law.com/en/insights/trending-news/trending-news_20250512001_en_001/)
(This was a reply to Anonymous @ 10:33 am)
It should go without saying that I am just about the most pessimistic person possible on China.
However. It’s difficult to argue with Jeremy Warner here https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/bd1b24a84a3fb7f9 about the big lift to China from Trump’s ineptitude boosting EV sales.
Passenger car and small vans account for 25% of global oil consumption. Reduce that by about two thirds (and most of this shift will be in richer countries, the US in particular but also Europe — where the trend is well underway — Japan and naturally China itself) over, say, the next five years and who will care about the closure of the strait of Hormuz and the oil which flows through it. Or Iran, for that matter.
Thanks Donald! Greta loves you for it!
Looks like Trump is going have another crack at bombing Iran.
If at first you don't succeed, just keep on at it I guess.
The US from Biden onwards has been handing European manufacturing and markets to China. And as I keep saying, those who prefer Chinese to US hegemony will live to regret it.
Germany, France, Italy and Poland (plus also-rans like Spain, Slovenia and Benelux) would like a word about that.
European strategic and industrial autonomy is back in fashion (late to the game perhaps but China is far from unassailable here).
Everything old is suddenly new again…
Another go at Iran - from the same team as last time. A cunning plan?
'Industrial autonomy' bless my soul. All the very best economists and management consultants advised 'get out of making stuff' for the last 50 years. And we did.
But nary a thought as to what we will do to make up the loss, where are all those software experts coming from, all those new physicists and pharmacists and management consultants coming from. Whizzo scheme, let's cut the education budget and cut the number of teachers. Let's privatise the unis and flog cheap and nasty non-education - after all they can all get a cushty job at the BBC, no worries. The result - accountants and lawyers.
And now 50 years later we have 'industrial autonomy'. All those miners and steelworkers and lathe operators did not set to and take up TransGalactic GargleBlaster making. The market did not provide, it bu&&ered off somewhere else. Silly old economists.
I'd bang a few heads together - but they are all very well pensioned off and don't give a monkey's.
Now the new fad is AI, but we have to put it in Scotland 'cos we can't afford the wire to bring all that leccy down to the Soft South where our handful of AI experts live. And look at the startup cost - £50Bn just gets you the computer centre teashop and poor old Rachel can hardly find a measly £1Bn to scratch her backside.
Mr Putin - you're welcome.
"European strategic and industrial autonomy is back in fashion"
Is that why BASF are opening plants in China and VW closing them in Germany?
The French are keen on autonomy, pity their nuclear plants are so crap and pity we bought them.
Putin is irrelevant here.
If anyone is a clear beneficiary it is China, which locks in its manufacturing lead bring able to diversity new demand for energy supply into renewable sources.
And if truth be told, European manufacturing never really declined, so much as get eclipsed by China’s growth. It still retains a 20+% share of global manufacturing (compared to China’s 32%).
Add the European share of world manufacturing to the US one it both eclipse China even today (combined c. 36% share).
You’d expect the US to start eating into China’s lunch now (with Trump’s America First policies.
Russia is a rounding error in all this.
(sources: https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMg_0ad28aa0-d513-4437-98c2-c467973c4f8f — took me barely two minutes of typing while AI churned away for 10 minutes doing the grunt work — that would have previously taken hours using dumb search engines and a calculator, so it’s easy to tell now who has figured out its 2026 and AI is the way to go and people waffling inanely online talking bollocksey opinions don’t stand a chance)
Sighs. Cries a little. Wonders if some people were dropped on the head as small child (as little else would seem to explain it):
https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMg_b32966e6-1908-4b49-8742-520cc97b20fc
"its 2026 and AI is the way to go"
Go bankrupt?
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/apr/29/claude-ai-deletes-firm-database
Crane’s takeaway was that “the agent didn’t just fail safety. It explained, in writing, exactly which safety rules it ignored.” He added: “We were running the best model the industry sells, configured with explicit safety rules in our project configuration, integrated through Cursor – the most-marketed AI coding tool in the category.” Anthropic released its latest model, Claude Opus 4.7, on 16 April –about a week before the incident. Anthropic did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
@anon 10:36 - that's on the company. You don't give AI access to anything on production, you ensure whatever it's running under hasn't got permissions to do anything you don't want it to.
Anything it works on needs to be under source control, backed up, or otherwise in a state to rewind when it fucks up.
I've honestly no sympathy for these companies, if you're a business, you have some form of marketing, and you know they tend to be economical with the truth, so naively absorbing another company's marketing fluff with nary a critical thought in sight is Darwin Award territory.
Can’t wait for the next update from our anonymous friend, following the outcomes of his “I gave the car keys to my Porsche to my 16 year old kid and told him to ‘go out and have some fun, see what you can do’ planning to catch up with him later and see what he’d been up to” anecdotal experiment..
I see Trump's war on the EU continues:
"I am pleased to announce that, based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars and Trucks coming into the United States. The Tariff will be increased to 25%. It is fully understood and agreed that, if they produce Cars and Trucks in U.S.A. Plants, there will be NO TARIFF. "
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