Toughing things out isn't quite the same as playing for time, although the latter (an intellectually very dull strategy, but often effective) can be part of it. One reason it can work for the obdurate party is that an awful lot of opponents have read their Sun Tzu and are hoping to gain their victory by manoeuvre and psychology alone, i.e. without bloodshed - which involves the incumbent vacating the battlefield before any clash of main forces.
Well, the other side has a vote in these matters, which all parties need to remember. We have three prominent examples in play right now.
Starmer. We've long suggested that Team Starmer has every intention of toughing it out, and in the last couple of days he stated he would contest any leadership election that might be forced upon the Labour Party. Quite obviously, yer Burnhams and yer Steetings are hoping he'll be driven away without a fight, perhaps out of sheer embarrassment. Note that Burham said last week that IF there's a contest (and IF he's an MP), he'd stand. That's a man waiting for a coronation, not one armed with a pre-drafted letter in 81 copies.
And there's probably quite a few Labour MPs who don't want to be put on the spot, too, when the Whips come round with nomination papers and thumbscrews. Well, who knows what a few more weeks and Mandy-scandals will bring for TS - but since 'shamelessness' is his second name, he can probably hold on until the last minute. So there you go, boys: you're gonna have to winkle him out.
Trump. Obviously not in such imminent political peril; but he sure ain't enjoying where he finds himself vis-à-vis Iran and world opinion generally. (WTF did they go ahead with that Beijing visit for - I mean, either of them, Trump or Xi? Literally nothing achieved. At least, though, it doesn't appear Trump gave away the farm this time, which was the danger. What might he do to cajole Xi to go ahead with the planned Washington visit, though?)
Anyhow, in what's clearly an orchestrated effort, there has been a splurge of "Trump really knows what he is doing" articles - a demeaning task for the poor writers involved because manifestly he hasn't a f*****g clue. I'd spotted a few in UK media, and thought it was empty sycophancy: but US contacts tell me it's been a blizzard over there. The joke is, one of the oft-repeated lines is that Trump is pursuing clearly-stated Original War Aims - and then they cite different ones! Of course, there have been so many to choose from, sometimes all in the space of a single morning in Trumpworld. Does it all make the Donald feel happier? Who can tell.
Putin. Ah yes, Li'l Volodya again, with two more humiliations in the past few days: the Ukrainian bombing of St Petersburg, literally casting a dark cloud over the SPIEF-fest; and the Armenian elections, which he had convinced himself had been sufficiently 'influenced' as to give a pro-Moscow result. (This comes after Victory Day, Hungary, Iran, Cuba, Syria, Azerbaijan, etc etc - and of course the Chinese gas sale debacle. Not to mention the casualties ... we've done this all before.)
But no: he's refusing to engage with Zelenskyy's insolent letter, and maintaining that Russia is on the path to inevitable total victory & fulfillment of his Original War Aims - however fatuous that sounds to, err, absolutely everyone. So as we order industrial quantities of popcorn for the months ahead, let's just poke a little more fun by recounting what happened during SPIEF under that dark, oily pall.
- the WiFi failed
- overseas visitors were provided with VPN and SIMs so that they could access WA, etc (banned and 'blocked' in Russia)
- the useless Max messenger (the mandatory replacement for soon-to-be-banned-altogether Telegram) received its official launch - and promptly disappeared from the AppStore
- journalists were asked not to take photos of the lavish parties
- ditto of the hookers provided for delegates
- residents had their hot water switched back on for the week (in St Petersburg the hot water provided by municipal district heating schemes is switched off in summer), presumably so they could present a fragrant atmosphere in the street
But still he's not for turning ...[1]. These world leaders, eh? - they're so ... tough.
UPDATE: reporting within Russia has it that the cyber aspects of Putin's personal security regime have been switched off. This makes protecting him in some aspects more difficult: but has been occasioned by acute fears stemming from the ease with which Israel was manifestly able to track Iranian and Hezbollah leaders. As we know, Putin is a physical coward [2] who seriously hopes to live to be 150. But just because he's paranoid - aspects of which are noted by the FT - that doesn't mean 'someone' isn't out to get him. (But probably not Mr Z.)
ND
_______________[1] Tellingly. however, in occupied Ukraine the Russians are seriously digging in - vast underground citadels being built. They clearly envisage the need to defend what they now hold, rather than feeling confident of pushing ever further forward into the territory they assert is theirs for the taking, as Putin reckons is happening right now. It's readily understandable, not least because Ukraine has rendered vulnerable every movement of vehicles and rolling stock, across the occupied territories and a significant swathe beyond, seriously incommoding Russian logistics. Summer shortages of oil and even water in some of these areas will be acute. It's truly hard to envisage how the much vaunted Russian "2026 Offensive" will materialize in any manner worthy of the name.
[2] Let's get ahead of the "how do you know this?" trolling, with (a) his obvious blind terror of covid - back to SPIEF again, anyone allowed to attend his address & press conference in person had to go through rigorous covid testing, even in 2026 (and he wasn't going to kiss them anyway); and (b) seemingly, a new-found terror of hantavirus (sic!). It has seriously been floated in Russia that the Special Military Operation should be brought to a conclusion swiftly, because of ... wait for it ... the risk of hantavirus running riot among front-line troops. WTF? There's only one reason why that sort of arrant nonsense appears: it's because someone who wants a prompt end to the SMO knows which of Putin's buttons to press.
10 comments:
If Ukraine can cause sufficient disruption to Russian logistics far behind the front line, it can effectively put the occupied territories under siege. Russian forces will be unable to move forward and unable to bring in enough food, water, and ammunition to supply the positions they currently hold.
Like the inhabitants of a medieval castle surrounded by enemies, the Russians will be trapped inside their own defences, hoping that outside help arrives before their supplies run out completely.
So, if the Ukrainians can maintain this form of virtual siege by drones for long enough, they can starve the Russians out instead of having to fight for every metre of land.
Note a quick update to the post, appended this evening
We'll be alright, we have a navy to defend us. Except that at the moment virtually none of the vessels seem to be seaworthy.
When a nation loses general manufacturing capability, it's much harder to hang onto it in some strategic areas, because what James Dyson calls the "process knowledge" goes. So Scotland, with an epic shipbuilding history, can no longer build decent Hebridean ferries. How long can Rolls Royce and BAe Warton/Chester survive?
Meanwhile the undeclared war continues
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/06/us-china-trump-trade-war
It is perplexing how the global economy arrived at this spot. China accounts for about a third of the world’s manufacturing output, from only about 5% in 1995. Its share of global manufacturing exports rose from 3% to 20% over the period. It accounts for over 50% of the global exports of hundreds of manufacturing products. Even Germany, with its robust industrial pedigree, is worried that its industry may not survive the Chinese competition. China’s swelling current account surplus – officially 3.8% of its gross domestic product but up to 5% according to some analysts – has become a global threat.
Mr Porter can't understand Chinese strategy, and presumably hasn't read this, published in 2007.
https://www.fingleton.net/extract-from-in-the-jaws-of-the-dragon/
St An-deh's halo looks to have slipped a bit for a chunk of his Parliamentary supporters, so if - as it looking likely, sadly - he wins, and he's not prepared to pull the trigger, then he's going to be doing the political version of that little dance people do when desperate for the toilet.
This is going to be painful to watch - and be governed by.
Ukraine will not win. That's not to say Russia will either. Both will lose, but the loses on the Ukrainian side will be more severe. They have an entire generation of fathers and workers that are gone. Boris dealt them a shit hand.
Way off topic, but it's entertaining to see Sinn Fein people condemning the use of violence for political ends.
There is no credible evidence that Boris Johnson single-handedly (or even primarily) “scuppered” a viable opportunity for a peaceful resolution in spring 2022. The claim is a distortion that originated in a partial reading of Ukrainian officials’ own statements, has been heavily amplified by Russian state narratives, and does not hold up when the full record of the Istanbul negotiations, Ukrainian decision-making, and timeline are examined.
Ukraine had already decided against signing before Johnson’s visit. In the same November 2023 interview Russian sources quote selectively, Arakhamia explicitly stated that the Ukrainian delegation “had not planned to sign anything in any case.” The decisive factors were:
• Russia offered no credible security guarantees (the draft required Western countries to underwrite Ukraine’s security, something the West was unwilling to do in writing).
• Russian demands (neutrality + other clauses) would have required constitutional changes and were seen as incompatible with Ukrainian sovereignty.
• The military situation had shifted: Russian forces were retreating from the Kyiv region after failing to take the capital. euvsdisinfo.eu mythdetector.com President Zelenskyy himself addressed the claim directly in a February 2025 interview and called it “illogical.” He said the decision not to proceed was Ukraine’s own, driven by Russian “ultimatums” that violated citizens’ rights and the constitution. By the time of Johnson’s visit, Russian troops had been pushed back from Kyiv’s outskirts; Zelenskyy noted they even walked the streets together. He asked rhetorically: “Pressured me for what?”
Johnson did discourage a compromise settlement and urged continued resistance — that was Britain’s (and the broader Western) policy at the time. But the evidence shows Ukraine was not on the verge of signing a workable peace treaty that Johnson then blocked. Ukrainian leaders who were actually in the negotiating room have repeatedly confirmed they were not going to accept the Russian terms regardless of what Johnson said. The claim that he “scuppered” a peaceful resolution is therefore misleading and has been widely labelled Russian disinformation or selective quoting. euvsdisinfo.eu
Talks in spring 2022 were real and showed both sides were willing to explore concessions early on. They collapsed because the gaps (especially on security and sovereignty) proved unbridgeable once the fog of the initial Russian offensive lifted. Blaming one foreign leader for the entire failure oversimplifies a complex failure of diplomacy on all sides. But it does make a great, zombie-like narrative that Russia symps like to parrot.
Leading analysts like Michael Pettis argue this is primarily a symptom of weak domestic demand in China—suppressed household consumption (low wage share of GDP, high savings from policy distortions), over-investment, and a growth model biased toward production over consumption. China produces far more than its domestic economy can absorb, so the excess must be exported. The surplus is a sign of economic weakness, not unassailable strength.
Shorter, when a country produces far more than it can ever hope to consume domestically, it is that country which is relying on the kindness of strangers to keep its show on the road.
The era of the rest of the world indulging China is coming to an end. If it hasn’t ended already.
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